Hello Folks! This is my first post on the SBR forums, but I am fairly knowledgeable about the mathematics behind sports wagering.
A little background information about myself, I did my undergraduate studies at the University of California - Los Angeles (UCLA) with a major in Statistics. I am currently enrolled in a graduate studies program at the University of California - Berkeley within the Statistics department. Since a young age, I've always had a passion for sports and felt that numbers could provide an objective means for determining winners and losers. Of course, I was well versed in SABRmetrics by the time the internet came full swing; and have done extensive research within baseball both recreational and professional (for my studies). I had recently taken up wagering small amounts on my stipend for recreational purposes and used my background to help me out!
I have created a small statistical model which takes into account expected win shares of MLB teams depending on statistics such as OBP, SLG, ERA, WHIP, and defensive zone ratings. The model itself took quite a while to develop but from a layman's point of view; I ran many (and I emphasize many) historical regressions taking account the aforementioned statistics to create an accurate assessments of expected win shares of MLB teams at a certain point in time.
Basically, my model churns out the EV of any bet (head to head; straight up) for any MLB game. Obviously I'm going to win some and lose some, but if my system is accurate, my +EV plays should, in the long run, come out with some positive units!
Without any further ado, here are my 'model plays' on the SBR forum!
San Francisco Giants -113
Tampa Bay Devil Rays +111
Minnesota Twins +105
All bets are flat 1 unit bets. I.E 1 unit to win 1.11 units; or 1 unit to win .885 units.