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San Francisco Giants -105
I have been eyeing this play for a while now, following Lincecum closely to see when he'll turn the corner. He allowed 2 runs over 7 IP in his last start, but lost due to a lack of run support. He hasn't looked completely lost this season, in fact; he's looked pretty dominant at times. His trouble has come from one inning of implosion that usually occurs around the 5th or 6th inning. Last start, Lincecum showed poised as he pitched through a couple tight spots; and overall, had a quality game.
I think Lincecum has turned a corner this season and he's beginning to regain his usual form. At a price of -105, the value here is just too good to pass up.
In addition, I believe Bochy will keep Lincecum on a short leash and pull him at the first sign of a meltdown. His bullpen has been fresh coming off absolute monster starts by Cain, Bumgarner, Zito, and Vogelsong; whom averaged around 8 IP against CHC.
The Giants have hit an absolute stride lately and have been playing solid error free baseball. I would like to see the situational hitting go up, but the opportunities are there.
The Padres have been crap lately, and are playing at a low point in the season.
I see Lincecum having a great game, but if that doesn't work out; the bullpen is fresher than opening day.
Value is there, I'll take the Giants.