[mcwmiamisc]

I have a smililar chase to Stifler's with lower risk but slightly lower profit:

When a team scores 0 runs they usually come out swinging the next day. No one likes getting shutout, its like a punch in the mouth. Only avoid if the next day is off.

This is a 2 game chase to be profitable.

This season after a 0 run performance, bet them. If they lose bet the second game for 1 unit plus what you lost on game A. If it loses forget it and only lose 3-3.5 units.

So 44 season wins profits 44 units and 9 season losses makes 28 lost units.

So far in 1 month and a half it's 16 units profitable.

Ex:
LAD 5
COL 0

Play COL ML in their next game.

Season results:
Game A - 28 wins
Game B - 16 wins
Game C - 4 losses
Game D - 2 losses
Game E - 2 losses
Game F - 0 losses
Game G - 1 loss

Teams like LAA and SEA have been the result of poor run games including a 7 gm losing streak for SEA after a 0 run performance.

The numbers for games A and b are drastically more and by game c there is no reason to chase.

The first two games provide a great profit 83% and when game C and beyond loses it is only down 3-3.5 units.

Interleague play scares me since the NL is the D league and can get shutdown to superior pitching since the first night provided 3 NL shutouts including Verlander nearly no-hitting the Pirates.

Todays games:
DET 6 PIT 0
GAME A - PIT +149

SEA 4 COLO 0
GAME A - COLO -170

NYY 4 CIN 0
GAME A - CIN +137

HOU 4 MIL 0
MIN 11 MIL 4 (Game A L)
GAME B - MIL -176

Any thoughts or questions?

[Stifler]

So basically if a team lose and scored 0 runs u gonna start the 2game chase, but just if game a is 1 day after the lost game? And u play the lost team to win for the chase? Probably worth a look for the previous seasons. I keep watching this thread. Gl anyway!

[mcwmiamisc]

Yes that is correct in the game the day after the 0 run performance. I don't have the time or access to past records. This was a chase I started this year after seeing the Rockies have 0 runs then 17 the next night. Seemed like a strong reason why that happened (more effort when getting embarrassed) and has been worth the effort so far. Thanks! good luck on the Nats and Cubs today. If one loses won't the -30 units bring it down to 0 units profit for the season and if both lose then -30 units for the year??

[TidesRoln]

Might take a stab at this after checking past performance.

[ghost212]

yee look at philadelphia last season, you win 5 chases, so +5 units, and you are losing 2 chases on the end of the season with lost of 10 units. bilans= -5 units.

[mcwmiamisc]

on those last for 4 losses it's more like -150 per game most likely and only lose 6-7 unit losses. Don't think they were favored -200 in those late games last year but I could be wrong. They probablt broke even for this chase last year is my guess.

[lam824]

The best way to capp this is takin a group of teams and analyze how they react after shutout...from las year Texas were shut out 10 times and the record was 10-0 after been shut out for the best record, the worst was HOU that was blanked in 15 times or so with a 3-12 record after been shutout or somethink around ....

[mcwmiamisc]

Yes but a chase is up and down, I don't advise playing these. I have some but its up and down. Like your theory TEX is good to play and HOU being a bad team to fade. But here are some stats this year for teams after a shutout in the two games:

KC, HOU, ARI, LAA are combined 13-1 and all are bad teams so this isnt too acurate of a system

[Sandwich]

http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb.py/que...2&submit=query

this link shows the teams that were shutout and will be playing the 1st game of the chase for the 2012 season.

After a bit of backtesting, both long term records indicate slightly less than 50% win rate per A and B bet, respectively.

All time 1st game or Game "A" record:

SU:

1118-1162 (-0.1 rpg)

average line: +100 / -114

on / against: -$4,493 / -$7,683

ROI: -1.6% / -2.6%

All time 2nd game or Game "B" record:

SU:

559-592 (-0.1 rpg)

average line: +106 / -119

on / against: -$308 / -$5,404

ROI: -0.2% / -3.6%

note** these records include games that were not played the next day, keep that in mind.

[TidesRoln]

Sandwich,

Can a query of the stats be done for how teams perform for 3 games "after" their Pitcher tosses a shut out? I put pen to paper last night and went thru the 2011 sched's for half of the MLB teams and got "roughly": 126 wins and 14 losses (126 wins meaning the team lost one of their next three games; and 14 losses is a three game chase losss meaning the team won at least the next three). Thx for the above stats.

[Sandwich]

Hey Tides,

So you are wanting to fade the team that throws a shutout for the next 3 games, right?

here are the records I found for 2011, if you delete "and 2011" in each query field it will show you the entire record in the database.

Game A - fading team, look at against record

SU:

167-154 (0.1 rpg)

average line: -110 / -102

on / against: +$4 / -$1,472

ROI: +0.0% / -3.9%

Game B - after fade team won 1st game, fading 2nd game

SU:

82-80 (0.3 rpg)

average line: -120 / +108

on / against: -$890 / +$175

ROI: -4.2% / +1.0%

Game C - after fade team won A & B game, fading 3rd game

SU:

39-39 (0.1 rpg)

average line: -119 / +106

on / against: -$668 / +$180

ROI: -6.6% / +2.0%

hope that helped

http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb.py/que...1&submit=query

[TidesRoln]

Hey Tides,

So you are wanting to fade the team that throws a shutout for the next 3 games, right?

here are the records I found for 2011, if you delete "and 2011" in each query field it will show you the entire record in the database.

Game A - fading team, look at against record

SU:

167-154 (0.1 rpg)

average line: -110 / -102

on / against: +$4 / -$1,472

ROI: +0.0% / -3.9%

Game B - after fade team won 1st game, fading 2nd game

SU:

82-80 (0.3 rpg)

average line: -120 / +108

on / against: -$890 / +$175

ROI: -4.2% / +1.0%

Game C - after fade team won A & B game, fading 3rd game

SU:

39-39 (0.1 rpg)

average line: -119 / +106

on / against: -$668 / +$180

ROI: -6.6% / +2.0%

hope that helped

http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb.py/que...1&submit=query

Yes, that is what I was looking for, 'preciate that. So the #'s show: A + $1,472 B + $175 C + $180
Those #'s based on 1 unit = $100?