I know most people will look at this game and the line and think that Halladay and the Phillies are overpriced here with Halladays struggles in his last game but the one thing most people wont look at is Nieses numbers in his last few games. He is 2-1 overall with an ERA of 4.08 but his last two wins came almost 3 weeks ago and in his last 3 starts he has gone 0-1 and he has not looked sharp, he gave up 5 earned runs and 6 hits in his last start against Houston.
People are going to see the Halladay 0-2 and 6.05 ERA stat in his last 3 starts and be weary of this game but that stat is misleading. He basically had one really bad game, the last start against Atlanta where he got shelled and gave 8 runs in 5 innings, but he actually didnt get a decision in that game and in his two losses he didnt pitch that poorly, he just got no run support. Roy didnt claim any injury or any mechanics problem with his pitches in the Atlanta game and said he felt good but just blamed the execution of his pitches.
You can get Roy Halladay who is still 3-2 to start the year at home with a Phillies team coming off a great hitting night against Washington tonight on national tv facing a Mets team that is 2-6 in their last 8 on the road and the Phillies at a ml number in the 170's. The Phillies did have a poor outing saturday against the nationals and dropped the series overall but did just win a tough series with the Braves and the Diamondbacks and the Phils are hitting the ball a little better.
The Mets may be missing Tejada as well. I will take Halladay at home against the Mets any day of the week, irregardless of one really bad game.
Phillies -1 -131 risk 2.62
Good pitching matchup, Saunders and Lynn have both been impressive. Lynn has really been incredible, putting up stellar numbers to start the year. 5-0 with and ERA of just 1.60, he has a chance to become baseballs first six game winner tonight. Saunders has been impressive as well going 2-0 and he has one of the best earned run averages in the majors with a 1.24 ERA. I like the under here as well , I read a stat that the cardinals are 9-3 on the under in their last 12 on the road and neither team is playing very good ball this week.
The cardinals looked pretty poor against the Astros and the Diamondbacks just dropped series to the Nationals and Mets and are 1-4 in their last 5 and have been putting up pretty average numbers at home this year. I will take the red hot Lynn and the better team here for a side as well.
Cardinals -118 risk 1.18
Cardinals/Dbacks u8.5 -125 risk 1.25
Last edited by gregm; 05-07-12 at 12:12 PM.
Reason: 9-3 on the under, not 3-9
The Dodgers now have the best home record in baseball with the Rays dropping 2 to the A's and have Lilly,Kershaw, and Billingsley scheduled for this series against the Giants. The Giants have Zito, Vogelsong, and Lincecum scheduled to take the mound.
This is really getting to be a heated rivalry and LA has a huge advantage with the Dodgers sending Kershaw and Billingsley in this series, plus you add in the fact the Dodgers have the best home record in baseball this year and an LA team that is 24-7 in their last 31 home games, this is a pretty big wager for me.
Adding a play on Lilly and the dodgers, I thought tonight was the closest match up pitching wise in the series and was just going with my series wager. Its probably going to end up being a wash tonight with my other baseball bets and a perfect day in soccer so putting something on LA tonight
Dodgers -1 -114 risk 2.28
Last edited by gregm; 05-07-12 at 09:08 PM.
Reason: added a little more to this one
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