Capping and Discussions: Tuesday September 12th, 2006
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Mets at Marlins: LHP Oliver Perez vs. RHP Josh Johnson
Perez is 3-11 overall with a 6.58 ERA. He is 1-1 with a no-decision since coming to the Mets from the Pirates in a late trade. Pitched a complete game shutout against the Braves in New York his last outing (Aug 6) to snap a string of six losses in seven starts. Has not faced Florida this year, and is 1-1 in four previous starts against them with a 5.14 ERA. He’s 1-1, 7.00 in two previous starts at former Joe Robbie. The three Marlins who have given him the most trouble in the past are Miguel Cabrera (2-6, 2 HR), Cody Ross (2-3, 1 HR) and Josh Willingham (1-2, HR).
Johnson is 12-7 with a 3.20 ERA this year. He’s coming off a couple of rough starts, losing at home to the Phillies on Sep 7 (4.2 IP, 5 ER) and picking up a no-decision on Sep 2 at Milwaukee (6 IP, 4 ER). He’s 2-0 against the Mets this year, going 7 IP at home with just 2 hits and no earned runs allowed on May 26 and 5 IP with 2 hits and no earned runs allowed on Jul 8 in New York. Those are his only appearances against the Mets in his brief career. He’s yet to allow any homers to the Mets who are batting just .114 (4-for-35) with 12 Ks in 12 IP against Johnson.
Home plate umpire should be Brian Onora who has a 16-12-1 OVER this year in his 29 games behind the dish. His last two plate appearances have seen an under and a push, with 5-straight over before that.
Brewers at Pirates: LHP Chris Capuano vs. RHP Shawn Chacon
Capuano is 11-10 this season with a nice 3.49 ERA, and has just one win (and three no decisions) in his last six starts despite lowering his ERA from 3.87 to 3.49 in that span. He last faced the Pirates in Pittsburgh on Aug 16, throwing 6 IP with one earned run only to get a no-decision before the Brewers pulled it out by a 5-2 score. In four starts against the Bucs this year, Capuano is 1-2 with that no-decision, 22 Ks, 4 BB and a 5.86 ERA in 23 IP. Jack Wilson (8-22, HR) and Jason Bay (7-18, 3 HR) have hit him well; Jeromy Burnitz (2-14) and Xavier Nady (2-12, HR) have not.
Chacon is 6-5 overall this season with a 6.80 ERA. He is 1-2 with three no-decisions in six starts for the Pirates since coming from the Yankees in a deadline deal. Chacon has not faced the Brewers this year and is 0-1 in a start and three relief appearances with a 2.57 ERA the last three seasons against Milwaukee. He owns Kevin Mench (0-for-6 lifetime) and has had a little trouble with Damian Miller (2-4, HR) and Bill Hall (3-4) in limited action.
CB Bucknor, one of the worst, is the umpire behind the plate in this one. In his 31 HP jobs this year, the over has a 17-14 advantage.
Astros at Cardinals: LHP Andy Pettitte vs. RHP Jeff Weaver
Pettitte is even at 13-13 this season with a 4.34 ERA. He’s 2-0 with a pair of no decisions in his last four starts, posting a 2.18 ERA in that span at Cincinnati, at Pittsburgh, in Houston against the Brewers and at Philadelphia. This start was pushed back a day due to a sore ankle. Pettitte is 2-0 with a no-decision in three starts this year against St. Louis, posting a 4.11 ERA in just under 20 IP and consistent in that he has allowed three earned runs in each of those three outings to the Cards. Scott Spiezio (10-31), Juan Encarnacion (13-34, HR) and Scott Rolen (7-24, 2 HR) have hit Pettitte well while Albert Pujols (4-20) and Jim Edmonds (5-36) have not.
Weaver is 6-14 with a 5.85 ERA overall this season, and 3-4 in 11 starts with a 5.19 ERA since moving to the Cardinals from the Angels. This will be Weaver’s first look at the Astros this season. In five previous starts against Houston, Weaver is 2-3 with a respectable 3.74 ERA. Aubrey Huff (8-22), Craig Biggio (5-14) and Brad Ausmus (6-14) have had some success against him. Lance Berkman (3-14, HR), Willy Taveras (0-7) and Morgan Ensberg (2-13) have struggled a bit facing the lanky right-hander.
The plate umpire is slated to be Tim Tschida who has an 11-17-1 UNDER margin in his 29 games calling balls and strikes this season. His last four games have all gone under.
Athletics at Twins: RHP Kirk Saarloos vs RHP Matt Guerrier
Saarloos is 7-7 overall with a 4.68 ERA. His last outing was a rough one as he allowed four earned, seven hits and three walks in three innings to the Rangers, taking the loss to snap a 4-start win streak. He lost his only start to the Twins this year on Jun 2, pitching well enough to win with 8 IP, 5 hits and only two earned runs allowed in a 2-1 Minnesota win. Both runs came in the 8th inning on a blast by Justin Morneau who has 2 HR in 7 AB against Saarloos in his career. That game was in Oakland and this is Saarloos’ first career start at Minnesota’s Metrodome.
Guerrier is making his first start of the season for Minnesota tonight after 33 relief outings. He worked four innings against the Tigers last Thursday, his longest stint of the year. He has no wins or losses so far in 2006 with a 3.04 ERA. In two relief innings against Oakland this season, he has allowed four hits, one earned run and struck out three with no walks. Jason Kendall (3-5) and Jay Payton (2-5) have the most success against him, though in limited at bats.
Alfonso Marquez should be the home plate umpire and he has a 14-14-1 record with the over/under this season in 29 games south of the dish. His last game behind the plate was a push in last Friday’s Oswalt-Sheets matchup between the Astros and Brewers. He is generally known to have a fairly liberal strike zone.
What, and come off as one of those know-it-all touts who get trashed here in the forum for their front page write ups?!
I prefer to just research some numbers and throw information out there for everyone to make up their own minds. That said...
I like the Mets-Marlins over 8½. Have a feeling the Mets are pissed about being jacked up the last two games and their offense will come out clicking plus they have Ollie Perez on the hill who ain't exactly in line for the NL Cy Young.
Also lean to the over 8½ that was listed earlier today for the Brewers-Pirates game primarily because of Sideways Cap Chacon chunking for Pittsburgh not to mention the way the Bucs have treated Chris Capuano in a couple of starts this year.
Since I never have a good feel for my Astros, take this with a few thousand grains of salt. But if I'm the Cardinals, I smell blood today thinking that if we beat Houston we pretty much nail their coffin shut for the year (if it's not already sealed). Would I take the Cards and Nightmare Weaver as the chalk? Nope.
And in the A's-Twins game, over 9½ looks pretty good to me with the Saarloos-Guerrier matchup. I like the Athletics' underdog value as well.
Got three more I'm going to research a bit later; will post my leans on them when I get to it so y'all will have something to laugh at when the finals come in later tonight
Come on now Willie I only roast touts when they say a guy thats throwing left handed is a righty..or they get a player confused with his brother....or they say someone has pitched well at home when its that pitchers first game at his new home since being traded for.
Sounds like you are looking at the Oliver Perez expresss handing out earned runs like they are government cheese. I cant figure out what happened to this guy. Traded along with Bay for Giles and had a great deal of success to start his career. But the dude has just sucked this year..except for his last game.
On the flip side you have Johnson. A great young pitcher but a guy who is making his 3rd start against the mets. Its getting late in the season and at only 22 years old he hasnt been seasoned to throwing this many innings like your veterans have. I say Johnson gives up 3 or 4 and the odds of perez being a train wreck are pretty good. Therefore I lean towards the over.
Nationals at Diamondbacks: RHP Jason Bergmann vs. RHP Miguel Batista
Bergmann is 0-1 with a 6.66 ERA and is making just his sixth start of the year along with 19 additional relief outings. He got blasted in his last outing, a start in Colorado, but pitched seven strong innings in the second game of the DH on Sep 2 against the Diamondbacks, going seven innings with just four hits and three earned runs against him in an eventual 4-3 Nats win that gave them a twinbill sweep that day. Luis Gonzalez has the only extra base hit off Bergmann who has seen limited action against Arizona.
Batista enters this game 10-6 with a 4.44 ERA on the season. He’s coming off a loss last Thursday at home to St. Louis (6 IP, 5 ER) that was preceded by four no-decisions in which he allowed just six earned runs over 28 innings. One of those NDs came on Sep 2 in DC to the Nats when he worked seven innings and allowed just one earned run before the Snakes’ bullpen coughed the game up and Arizona lost in extra frames. He’s handled Alfonso Soriano well in his career, allowing the Nationals’ offensive leader just two hits in 16 AB. Robert Fick (5-11, HR) and Jose Vidro (4-9, HR) have hit Batista well during their careers.
The arbiter behind the plate tonight should be Chris Guccione who has a strong 18-9-1 record for the over in his 28 games as the HP ump this season. However, six of his most recent nine plate appearances have gone under.
I like Batista in this one, and having seen him once before I think the D-Backs will get to Bergmann this time.
White Sox at Angels: LHP Mark Buehrle vs. RHP Ervin Santana
Buehrle is 12-12 with a 4.80 ERA in 2006, with a 3-2 mark in his last five starts after a 6-game losing skid that took up all of July and his first start in August which was against the Angels. Buehrle allowed three long balls and six earned runs in 6.2 IP that day. He has pitched well in his last two regular season starts at the Big A in Anaheim sporting a 1.69 ERA, one start a loss and one a no-decision. Prior to his August loss to the Halos, Buehrle’s previous start against them came in Game 2 of the 2005 ALCS. He went the distance in that one, allowing the Angels just one run on five hits, the only run coming on a Robb Quinlan homer. Buehrle won that game after the bizarre 9th-inning triggered the winning run of a 2-1 decision when AJ Pierzynski reached on a strikeout that umpire Doug Eddings ruled was not caught cleanly by Anaheim catcher Josh Paul.
Santana is 14-7 with a 4.53 ERA this year. His last start was last Wednesday at home against the Orioles in which Santana got the win despite allowing 3 HR. He has faced Chicago twice this year, once on Apr 30 (7 IP, 5 ER) when he did not factor in the decision, a 6-5 White Sox win and the other on May 10 in Chicago when he got the win in a 12-5 contest working six innings and allowing three runs. Santana worked seven innings and allowed five runs in that game. He pitched Game 4 of the ALCS last year against the Pale Hose and got knocked around pretty good in an 8-2 Chicago win.
Brian Runge is slated to work the plate in this one with a 14-10-4 mark on the over. His last three plate games have all gone over, with all three NL contests.
I like the under in this one, 9½, 10 would be even better if you can find it.
Blue Jays at Mariners: RHP Shaun Marcum vs. RHP Gil Meche
Marcum is making his 11th start of the season for Toronto (plus 7 relief outings) and has a 2-3 record with a 5.22 ERA. He is 1-0 with two no-decisions in his last three starts, allowing four earned runs with 14 Ks in 17.1 IP (2.07). This is his first career start against Seattle after two relief appearances earlier in which he worked an inning each time and allowed one earned run. With limited action against this lineup, Adrian Beltre has two doubles and a walk in three plate appearances versus Marcum to account for the most damage against him. This is also Marcum’s first appearance at Safeco Field.
Meche is 9-8 with a 4.31 ERA this year and is making his 29th start for Seattle. He has three straight no-decisions despite pitching very well: 22 IP, 13 Hits, 5 BB, 18 Ks, 2.05 ERA. He beat the Blue Jays in Toronto on Jul 14 with six innings of work in a 5-3 Seattle win, then was lit up 11 days later at home allowing seven runs in 4.1 IP of a 12-3 loss. Prone to bouts of wildness, Meche has issued 72 free passes this season in 165 innings of work. Troy Glaus and Vernon Wells are hitting a combined .179 against Meche, though they do have 3 HR in 39 AB. Frank Catalanotto (5-10), Reed Johnson (4-8) and Alex Rios (5-6) are the guys Meche must keep off the bases in this one.
Tim Welke has been a bettors nightmare behind the plate this year with a 13-13-3 record on over/unders. His strike zone tends to move during the course of a game making him a nightmare for pitchers, batters and managers as well.
Even with both pitchers throwing well of late, I like the over (8½) in this one. Marcum has been disastrous on the road, I never trust Meche, the Blue Jays had some offense going last night and I have a good feeling about Richie Sexson in this one since he's been seeing the ball pretty well of late.
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Capping and Discussions: Tuesday September 12th, 2006
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