[Brp27345]

BRP’s Picks – April 18^th, 2012

YTD (2-1) -0.8 Units

12:10 P.M. – New York Mets (R.A. Dickey) @ Atlanta Braves (Jair Jurrjens)

The Mets have started off this season playing very well, and have actually taken 4 out of their first 5 games against the Braves this season. In their matchups thus far these teams haven’t been able to score many runs against each other, but I see that changing for one of the teams today.
The Mets are throwing R.A. Dickey today, or as I like to call him “The Most Undervalued Pitcher in Baseball”. I could go through all the stats for Dickey, but the fact remains that his one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball, and should very easily keep his team in this game today. Dickey is currently working on a major league leading streak of 14 straight quality starts, look for that number to be at 15 by the end of the game.
On the other hand Jair Jurrjens has been an absolute shell of himself after being hurt near the middle of the year last season. Jurjjens was able to make 7 post all star break starts last year, posting a horrible 5.88 E.R.A. in those starts. Since then all he has done is back up the fact that something just isn’t right with him. He had an absolutely horrendous double-digit E.R.A. in the spring, and has continued that trend posting a 7.71 E.R.A. in his first two starts this season.
This Mets are the team playing better baseball right now, and this pitching matchup screams value here in taking the Mets, start your day off with a win and roll with NY!!!

Mets ML at +115 (3 units to win 3.45)

[Brp27345]

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815 P.M. – Cincinnati Reds (Mat Latos) @ St. Louis Cardinals (Jaime Garcia)

The Cardinals have started the year red hot, getting off to a 8-3 start to the season, and the bats have been hot as of late, scoring 22 runs in their last 4 games. On the other hand the Reds are just 1-4 on the road this season, have gotten off to a 4-7 start to the year, and have managed to score more than 2 runs just twice over their last 8 games.
This pitching matchup is about as beautiful as it can get with regards to pitchers going in different directions based on matchups. Latos has an E.R.A. over 5.5 in April to go along with a 1-6 record early in the season over the last 3 years. Latos also has been terrible against the Cardinals, allowing the team to hit nearly .400 against him and posting a 10.8 E.R.A. against the Cards over that same time span.
As bad has Latos has been against the Card, Garcia has been that good against the Reds. Garcia has gone 6-1 with a 2.7 E.R.A. against the Reds over the last 3 seasons. He has also been amazing early in the season posting a beyond sparkling 1.6 E.R.A. and 5-1 record in April. Lastly, Garcia has loved pitching in his home park over that same span, posting a 2.17 E.R.A. and a 15-8 record.
The Cardinals are playing better right now, and this is a dream pitching matchup!!!

Cards ML at -120 (3.6 units to win 3)
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710 P.M. – Texas Rangers (Derek Holland) @ Boston Red Sox (Josh Beckett)

The Red Sox have gotten off to a 4-7 start this season, and are amidst drama between their team and their manager, as well as playing without their spark in Ellsbury. The Rangers on the other hand have yet to lose on the road, are off to a 9-2 start on the season.
The Red Sox are tossing out Josh Beckett today, one of the prime candidates this year in my opinion for extreme regression from last season. Beckett has also been fairly terrible in April over the last 3 seasons, posting a 5.52 E.R.A. early in the season. Beckett has also faired horribly against the team he faces today in Texas over the last 3 seasons posting an E.R.A. above 6.
Holland on the other hand is one of the few pitchers in baseball who actually prefers to pitch on the road compared to at home. His E.R.A. of 4.26 is actually a point better than his home E.R.A. over the last 2 seasons. Holland has also pitched very well against the Red Sox in that same span posting an E.R.A. under 3 against the team he faces today.
The Rangers are the better team, the hotter team, and with the better matchup for their pitcher today, oh, and they re getting plus money, roll with them!!!

Rangers ML at +115 (2 units to win 2.3)
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Action Junkies (not official plays, but strong leans)
Tigers ML -120 (Tigers vs. gas can in Sanchez)
Marlins ML -125 (Garza does not like the Marlins)
Yankees RL -1.5 -115 (Kuroda settiled in, Marquis should get lit up)
Brewers RL -1.5 +130 (Greinke dominant early, Dodgers slowing down?)
TB/TOR Un. 8 +105 (Both pitchers love facing their opposing team)

[Brp27345]

Thoughts and opinions appreciated, BOL to everyone today!!!

[Madison]

Thanks again Brp appreciated. Looking like I dodged a bullet as just got around to looking and was liking the Mets play myself. Currently down 8-4 in the 5th. BOL

[Pick'nParlays]

Thoughts and opinions appreciated, BOL to everyone today!!!

bol

[Brp27345]

Another 2-1 day, up 2.3 Units... Puts us at YTD 4-2 and up 1.5 Units!!!

[Brp27345]

BRP’s Picks – April 19^th, 2012

YTD (4-2) +1.3 Units

9:40 P.M. – Atlanta Braves (Mike Minor) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (Josh Collmenter)

The Braves bats have finally woken up after a very slow start to the season. They have now scored 43 runs over their last 2 series, and have won 7 of their last 8 games overall. On the other side of the coin when it comes to being hot as of late are the D’Backs. They have lost 4 of their last 6 games, and it has a lot to do with injuries. Chris Young is on the DL now, and was a big reason the D’Backs were doing so well. Since he left with an injury in the 4^th 2 games ago, they have scored 2 runs over the last 14 innings. The lack of Justin Upton (most likely out for tonight’s game as well) along with CY means the D’Backs offense is a shell of itself right now.
The D’Backs are throwing Josh Collmenter tonight, and I think he is due for a pretty serious regression this season. Collmenter had a 3.38 E.R.A. last year, but that came out of nowhere really, and his post All-Star E.R.A. was much closer to 4 as players have had a chance to adjust to him. Don’t be surprised at all if that E.R.A. is much closer to 4.5 this season. I think he has shown closer to his true colors this season thus far posting an E.R.A. just under 13 in his first 2 starts of the season.
As much as I don’t believe in Collmenter, I think Mike Minor can only go up over the next couple of years. The ceiling on this kid is very high, and I think he finally realizes some of that potential this season. In his last start Minor gave up 2 hits in 7+ shut out innings against the Brewers. Look for Minor to continue rolling tonight against the severely diminished D’Backs offense.
This Braves are the hotter team right now, with the more talented pitcher, roll with them!!!

Braves ML at -120 (1.2 units to win 1)

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10:05 P.M. – Philadelphia Phillies (Vance Worley) @ San Diego Padres (Joe Wieland)

Neither of these teams hitting really strike the fear of God into their opponent, or any kind of fear for that matter. The Phillies come in 3-4 over their last 7, while the Padres have won just 1 of their last 7 contests. If you saw Cliff Lee pitch 10, yes 10 scoreless innings last night, and the Phillies still lose, you will know what I’m talking about. I do think however that the bats will be relieved to see someone a lot easier than Cain tonight, and I think it will wake them up a bit.
Joe Wieland is something of an unknown commodity, and did not perform well against what was admittedly a hot Dodgers team in his first career game. He wasn’t that highly touted coming out of the minors, and if he sticks around this year, which I doubt, I think it’s safe to say you can expect an E.R.A. over 4.
The Phillies on the other hand throw out who I think is one of the more undervalued pitchers in baseball in Vance Worley. You go into a series against the Phillies, and your ecstatic that you not facing one of the big 3 in Halladay, Hamels, or Lee. What you don’t realize though is that Worley was 12-4 with a 2.86 E.R.A. Worley is somewhat of an under the radar dominant pitcher, and gets pushed to the way side because his sub 3 E.R.A. is the worst of 4 pitchers on his own staff.
In a matchup where neither team can hit, I will take the far superior starter at nearly even money!!!

Phillies ML at -115 (1.15 units to win 1)

[Madison]

I rode Worley for quite a while LY. He has been horrible in his last 3 starts. Waiting for him to get in stride. GL

[Brp27345]

I rode Worley for quite a while LY. He has been horrible in his last 3 starts. Waiting for him to get in stride. GL

3.75 E.R.A. in 2 starts this year, terrible?

[Brp27345]

2-0 day yesterday...

6-2 +3.5 Units YTD!!!

[Brp27345]

BRP’s Picks – April 20^th, 2012

YTD (6-2) +3.5 Units

3:05 P.M. – New York Yankees (Ivan Nova) @ Boston Red Sox (Clay Buchholz)

If you’ve been paying any kind of attention to the baseball season, you know how the highly touted Red Sox have gotten off to another sizzling hot start to the season. It’s either that or they are performing like the overhyped team that they are, and losing bettors money left and right. The Sox have gotten off to a 4-8 start, and that offensive explosion in the first 2 games against a series vs. the Rays is starting to look more like an early season anomaly. On the other hand the Yankees have started off the year 7-6, and although it can’t be said they are playing well right now, their bats are doing enough to keep them winning games.
The Yankees throw Ivan Nova tonight, a pitcher who may have forgotten what it feels like to lose a baseball game he pitches in. Since the All-Star break last year, Nova is now 10-0, with a sub 3.5 E.R.A. Nova is one of those rare pitchers who actually performs better on the road in his career than at home by over .5 points on his E.R.A. Nova has gotten off to a decent start this season, one much better than his counterpoint today in Buchholz.
On the other hand, Buchholz, who many think is a prime candidate for a bounce back season this year, has not looked like someone who’s going to have one thus far this season. Buchholz sports an E.R.A. of nearly 5 against the Yankees over the last 3 years. Buchholz has also gotten off to an absolutely terrible start this season posting an E.R.A. of nearly 10, and don’t expect the Yanks bats to ease his pain today.
Hotter team, better team, hotter pitcher, better pitcher, even money, enough said!!!

Yankees ML at -105 (2.1 units to win 2)

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10:05 P.M. – Philadelphia Phillies (Cole Hamels) @ San Diego Padres (Edison Volquez)

The Phillies bats were able to put up an impressive 2 runs last night!!! The thing is that was enough for them to win the game, and most likely will be enough for them to win again tonight. The Padres are now 1-7 in their last 8 games, and as I read in a live blog while watching the game last night “If you have a Padres hitter on your fantasy team, your fantasy team is terrible”. Those words couldn’t be any more true, and shows the true picture of the Pads lineup this year.
The Padres are pitching Edison Volquez, who has the impressive distinction of having an E.R.A. over 5 in the last 3 seasons, and yet still being considered a top pitching option. Volquez walks too many batters, and although the talent may be there at some purely physical level, I don’t see that potential coming to fruition any time in the near future.
The Phillies will pitch Cole Hamels tonight against the AAA lineup of the Padres, and I can’t see any reason as to why he won’t be at the same level he always pitches at. Hamels has an E.R.A. of 2.2 against the Pads over the last 3 years over a 45 inning span. In those 6 starts against the Pads he has averaged over 7 innings pitched in those starts.
Better hitting team, and the pitching match-up isn’t even close, Roll with the Phillies!!!

Phillies ML at -130 (2.6 units to win 2)
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7:05 P.M. – St. Louis Cardinals (Lance Lynn) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (Charlie Morton)
The St. Louis Cardinals are 7-1 in their last 8 non-Adam Wainwright starts this year. Something just seems very wrong with him, hopefully he figures it out sooner than later, and isn’t still injured. On the other hand the Pirates are carrying on what is an unprecedented streak to start this season, as they have yet to score, or give up, more than 5 runs in a game this year. They took 2 of 3 against the offensively depleted D’Backs, but other than that they haven’t played that well thus far this season.
Charlie Morton is another guy whom it amazes me he still gets to be a starter on a MLB team. Morton’s career 5.4 E.R.A. can only be eclipsed by his even more impressive 6.5 E.R.A. and 2-6 record in April, as he is notoriously a slow starter.
Lynn-sanity in St. Louis……….. anyone? In all seriousness though Lynn has been great for the Cards thus far this season, and is going to make it tough for the Cards when Carpenter is healthy enough to come back.
This is as much a fade of Morton as it is of the Pirates bats, good price here!!!

Cardinals ML at -130 (1.3 units to win 1)

[Brp27345]

Yanks win puts us at 7-2... up 5.5 Units on they year...

Get on the Cards and Phils before game time!!!

[Brp27345]

Clean 3-0 sweep for a profit of 5 units on the day...

YTD 9-2 +8.5 Units!!!

[Brp27345]

BRP’s Picks – April 21^st, 2012

YTD (9-2) +8.5 Units

1:05 P.M. – Cincinnati Reds (Mike Leake) @ Chicago Cubs (Paul Maholm)

The Cubs come into this game at 3-11, losers of their last 6 games, and have an impressive streak going right now of giving up 5 or more runs in 8 consecutive games. The Reds on the other hand have showed signs of their bats finally waking up, scoring 6 or more runs in 3 of their last 5, winning all of those games. This cubs team also hits .062 points higher against lefties on the year, which Maholm is.
Mike Leake hasn’t gotten off to a great start this season, but with that being said his E.R.A. is still less than half that off his opponent in this game. Leake is also one of the few pitchers who prefers to pitch on the road compared to at home over his career. Leake is also 5-0 with an E.R.A. under 4 in his career in April, and even more impressive holds a career E.R.A. of 2.66 against the Cubs in over a 50 innings pitched sample size.
Paul Maholm is pretty much your definition of a little below-average pitcher. His 4.42 career E.R.A. pretty much holds true in every match-up / facet of the game, including very close to his career E.R.A. in his new confines of Wrigley field. Maholm hasn’t quite settled in to pitching for his new team yet though, as it might be jitters, but either was his E.R.A. of 13.5 isn’t promising for the Cubs here.
Better team, better pitcher, Cubs losing streak continues here!!!

Reds ML at -125 (2.5 units to win 2)
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8:35 P.M. – Philadelphia Phillies (Roy Halladay) @ San Diego Padres (Cory Luebke)

The Phillies went crazy and scored 4 runs last night!!! A bit of a coming out party for them, and an off day for most other teams, but yet again it was more than enough to win. The Padres are now 1-8 in their last 9 games, and are showing little to no life with their bats right now. I have a feeling that Doc won’t be the medicine needed to get those Padres bats healthy.
Cory Luebke is a very good pitcher in his own right, posting a sub 3.5 E.R.A. over the last 3 seasons, but surprisingly has an E.R.A. a point lower on the road than at home over that span. Luebke has also struggled in April posting an E.R.A. over 5, and when it comes down to it, unless he plans on hitting a couple home runs himself, the run support probably won’t be there.
Roy Halladay is well…….. he’s Roy Halladay. Halladay is 27-12 with a 2.5 E.R.A. on the road in the last 3 years, he’s 12-3 with a 2.5 E.R.A. in April and is already 3-0 with a 1.17 E.R.A. in his first 3 starts this season. It doesn’t get much better than Doc, oh and he has an E.R.A. of 1.9 against the Pads in 3 starts in that same span, where he’s averaged going 8 innings per start in that streak.
Doc on the mound against a AAA batting team, I’ll take the risk!!!

Phillies RL -1 at -105 (2.1 units to win 2)
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8:10 P.M. – Atlanta Braves (Tommy Hanson) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (Joe Saunders)

No Chris Young, No Justin Upton has continued to mean NO offense for the Diamondbacks. They are now losers of 4 straight, only being able to push 8 runs across the plate during that stretch. The Braves on the other hand have scored 55 runs over their last 6 games (yeah, that’s over 9 runs per game) and are winners of 9 of their last 10. To add fuel to the fire, the Braves hit nearly .040 points higher against lefties, and nearly .300 against them on the year, which Saunders is.
Joe Saunders has gotten off to a great start this season, but his career E.R.A. of over 4 is much closer to what you should be able to expect from him for the rest of the season. Saunders is 4-8 with an E.R.A. close to 5 over the last 3 years in April, look for a regression towards the norm here.
Tommy Hanson and his ridiculous curve ball come into this game looking like he may finally be back and fully healthy. Hanson’s career 3.3 E.R.A. shows that he is the real deal, and his career 2.39 E.R.A. in April is even more impressive. Look for Hanson to finally enjoy some run support to improve his record to go along with his great E.R.A.’s.
These teams are going in opposite directions right now, QUICKLY!!!

Braves ML at -120 (1.2 units to win 1)

[MarkTX]

Nice job so far BRP!