Tampa Bay 48% - Minnesota's offense has not been producing as well as it was earlier in the year, and Jason Hammel has some legitimate talent that he displayed recently in the minors. On the other side, Carlos Silva's mediocrity comes with a very low degree of volatility, which gives a big statistical boost to Tampa Bay and their sub-par lineup. Minnesota does have a bullpen edge, but it is less likely to be a key factor here than it is in other games. Tampa Bay again should have value as a home underdog.


Kansas City 35% - Again Kansas City will have value as a huge home underdog. Not having Mariano Rivera for this series hurts the Yankees a lot, and greatly closes the gap between the two teams' bullpens. Randy Johnson is in a better spot statistically here than most, but he is still unreliable from inning to inning, and if Runelvys Hernandez has his sinker working, he is likely to actually outpitch Johnson. If he gets shelled, of course it will be over early, but his high volatility gives value to the Royals at this line.