1. 03-31-12 12:21 AM #1
    Jayvegas420
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    25 Pitcher Survival Betting sSystem

    SO, here's how this system works.
    I start off with 25 pitchers. Eveytime that pitcher starts we bet on that team to win. If the team gets a win we move that pitcher into the green category. That pitcher remains in the green category until he makes a start & the team losses. When the team loses on that pitcher's start he is moved into one lower category. For example if a pitcher is in green status & he looses he is moved to neutral status. Once a pitcher is moved from neutral status to red status he must get a NO-DECISION to remain in red status. To move up to neutral status his team must win. If he gets a loss, while in red status he is off the list.
    When a pitcher achieves 3 straight wins or his team wins in five straight starts he is moved to silver status. When a pitcher has 10 wins he is placed into gold status.
    Hope this all makes sense.
    Here's the list:
    Verlander
    I.Kennedy
    Kershaw
    Halladay
    J.Weaver
    Greinke
    J.Marquis
    Porcello
    M.Harrison
    Vogelsong
    J.Shields
    C.Hamels
    C.Lee
    Romero
    D.Price
    Lincecum
    Hellickson
    Ogando
    Felix
    Lester
    CC
    T.Hudson
    Wandy Rodriguez
    R.Oswalt
    Carpenter

    We are wagering one unit per start.
    Begins April 4th

    GL
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  2. 03-31-12 12:33 AM #2
    Smutbucket
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    intresting...I got a similar system set up with 2 lists of pitchers for totals....over/under....if two pitchers are high up on over or under list I make the bet if they playing each other....
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  3. 03-31-12 01:34 AM #3
    Jayvegas420
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    I incorporated the pitcher's O/U rnkings according to covers.com into my selection.
    That's why guys like J.Weaver & J.Shields are on my list.
    R.Vogelsong ranked highest on my list in this category.
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  4. 03-31-12 11:57 AM #4
    D3 Mighty Ducks
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    Sounds interesting. Let's give it a shot! Can't wait for April 4th.
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  5. 03-31-12 01:33 PM #5
    Jayvegas420
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    I will be using units in the SBR sportsbook as I dont have enough disposable in any accounts right now.
    It will still help to give an accurate gauge for ROI.
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  6. 03-31-12 01:50 PM #6
    a4u2fear
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jayvegas420 View Post
    I will be using units in the SBR sportsbook as I dont have enough disposable in any accounts right now.
    It will still help to give an accurate gauge for ROI.
    Any indication on expected units won/lost? Have you done any research on past results for this?
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  7. 03-31-12 02:28 PM #7
    Jayvegas420
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    No, none at all.
    I remember someone telling me about a pitcher ranking system they used where they convinced me one night (drunk probably) that if you can predict wich pictchers will win 20 games or something like that, at the beginning of the season you can still profit vs the spread.
    So, I've just modified his premise a little & applied an elimination system of sorts & I want to see what happens.
    I dont know if the selection of pitchers has anything to do with the ultimate goal but with a different list of pitchers the results would have to vary.
    This was the list of pitchers I felt gave me the best chance to win money on money line bets/ per starts, regardless of whether they receive a no decision.
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  8. 03-31-12 02:30 PM #8
    Jayvegas420
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    If anyone has any suggestions as to who I should remove from this list &/or who I can replace them with, please don't hesitate to post this here.
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  9. 03-31-12 03:51 PM #9
    blackeyeshamus
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    Good luck, man!
    Likin' the concept quite a bit...
    Best of luck, sir!
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  10. 03-31-12 04:32 PM #10
    crackerjack
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    Seems easier to just handicap the games these pitchers are pitching in. What if two on your list go head to head?
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  11. 03-31-12 04:33 PM #11
    crackerjack
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    Also consider that when a pitcher starts winning, you'll have to lay higher odds to bet him. One loss might wipe out two wins...
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  12. 03-31-12 06:31 PM #12
    Jayvegas420
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    Well Cracker, I guess I am trying to eliminate the human error factor by forcing myself to bet blindly according to the system, however you are right on the point that I planned on waiting to see who the 1st silver ranked pitcher was & then increase the wager on him to 2 units.
    then 4 units for gold pitchers.
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  13. 03-31-12 06:31 PM #13
    Jayvegas420
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    When pitchers face each other I assume a NO BET would work best for our purposes.
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  14. 04-04-12 10:11 AM #14
    Jayvegas420
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    Tomorrow we will start with
    Jays
    Phillies
    Dodgers

    Odds will follow when available.
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  15. 04-04-12 10:17 AM #15
    dymd3z
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    So your saying we will be playing Jays, Phillies, & Dodgers tomorrow?
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  16. 04-04-12 11:31 AM #16
    Jayvegas420
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    Yes.
    The Lester - Verlander matchup is a no bet because they are both on the list.
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  17. 04-04-12 11:36 AM #17
    Jayvegas420
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    Make sure that the bet requires our pitcher to start for action.
    Also I am placing a 5 point wager on all three games and it says
    MIN WAGER ONLINE NOT REACHED.
    I thought the min was 5.
    Do I need to wager enough to PROFIT 5?
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  18. 04-04-12 05:30 PM #18
    BettingWizard
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    10 points is minimum
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  19. 04-04-12 05:36 PM #19
    ColdBeerHere
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    Good Luck TO
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  20. 04-05-12 09:54 AM #20
    Jayvegas420
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    Quote Originally Posted by BettingWizard View Post
    10 points is minimum
    Is this just a baseball thing?
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  21. 04-05-12 09:54 AM #21
    Jayvegas420
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    Quote Originally Posted by ColdBeerHere View Post
    Good Luck TO
    You too Sunset Dock.
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  22. 04-05-12 11:58 AM #22
    Samfourteen
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    Love the system Thanx. BOL this year
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  23. 04-05-12 11:04 PM #23
    Jayvegas420
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    It's opening day with aces pitching so I expect the results to be pos. for the 1st few days.
    Here's how the list stands after day 1
    Verlander
    I.Kennedy
    Kershaw
    Halladay
    J.Weaver
    Greinke
    J.Marquis
    Porcello
    M.Harrison
    Vogelsong
    J.Shields
    C.Hamels
    C.Lee
    Romero
    D.Price
    Lincecum
    Hellickson
    Ogando
    Felix
    Lester
    CC
    T.Hudson
    Wandy Rodriguez
    R.Oswalt
    Carpenter

    Tomorrow we have Houston & LA Angels
    Yankees/TB & Ariz/SF are NO BETS
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  24. 04-05-12 11:25 PM #24
    pronk
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    Masterson should be on that list too.
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  25. 04-05-12 11:30 PM #25
    gangeriver
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    Interesting system. Good luck
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  26. 04-05-12 11:34 PM #26
    Smutbucket
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    I agree, Masterson should be on the list. and i will be tailin this thread
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  27. 04-06-12 12:31 AM #27
    Jayvegas420
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    Too far down the list when it came to units earned & ERA & wins.
    There are maybe 20-30 pitchers that could have or should have been on the list but, this is the beauty of the system. You can make your own list.
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  28. 04-07-12 02:30 PM #28
    Jayvegas420
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    Verlander
    I.Kennedy
    Kershaw
    Halladay
    J.Weaver
    Greinke
    J.Marquis
    Porcello
    M.Harrison
    Vogelsong
    J.Shields
    C.Hamels
    C.Lee
    Romero
    D.Price
    Lincecum
    Hellickson
    Ogando
    Felix
    Lester
    CC
    T.Hudson
    Wandy Rodriguez
    R.Oswalt
    Carpenter

    A little late getting here today but, the pitchers in action today are Greinke & Price & Lee & Felix
    GL
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  29. 04-07-12 02:41 PM #29
    ChicagoCover
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    I like it! Good luck
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  30. 04-08-12 01:49 AM #30
    Jayvegas420
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    I can't believe C. Lee is gonna be off the list soon.
    Verlander
    I.Kennedy
    Kershaw
    Halladay
    J.Weaver
    Greinke
    J.Marquis
    Porcello
    M.Harrison
    Vogelsong
    J.Shields
    C.Hamels
    C.Lee
    Romero
    D.Price
    Lincecum
    Hellickson
    Ogando
    Felix
    Lester
    CC
    T.Hudson
    Wandy Rodriguez
    R.Oswalt
    Carpenter

    Still only 2 losses so far compared to 7 wins.
    IF Cliff Lee loses his next start I am selling my Cliff Lee Game used Jersey!

    Sadly there are no pitchers on the sched tomorrow.
    Im not sure any of our starters are going on MOnday either.
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  31. 04-09-12 08:33 PM #31
    Jayvegas420
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    Logging on late with bad news already.
    Cole Hamels records a loss.
    Here is the updated list.

    Verlander
    I.Kennedy
    Kershaw
    Halladay
    J.Weaver
    Greinke
    J.Marquis
    Porcello
    M.Harrison
    Vogelsong
    J.Shields
    C.Hamels
    C.Lee
    Romero
    D.Price
    Lincecum
    Hellickson
    Ogando
    Felix
    Lester
    CC
    T.Hudson
    Wandy Rodriguez
    R.Oswalt
    Carpenter

    At the end of this week I will update the total record and an approximate ROI%

    Remember tomorrow we have Detroit &
    Dodgers
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  32. 04-10-12 11:58 PM #32
    Jayvegas420
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    Verlander
    I.Kennedy
    Kershaw (2)
    Halladay
    J.Weaver
    Greinke
    J.Marquis
    Porcello
    M.Harrison
    Vogelsong
    J.Shields
    C.Hamels
    C.Lee
    Romero
    D.Price
    Lincecum
    Hellickson
    Ogando
    Felix (2)
    Lester
    CC
    T.Hudson
    Wandy Rodriguez
    R.Oswalt
    Carpenter

    List updated with Kershaw's Dodger's 2-0!
    The Red Sox/Jays is a NO BET today as is the Rays/Tigers Game.
    Bet, there are 5 pitchers in action for us, one of which might be 1st off of our list.
    CC
    Halladay
    J.Weaver
    Lincecum

    &
    If Wandy records a LOSS today he will be the 1st starter off the list.

    Looks like we are in the Black so far!

    GL

    P.S. it appears I missed one of Felix's starts. He has a ND with a team win & a WIN. Sorry for this.
    . Jay
    Last edited by Jayvegas420; 04-11-12 at 12:02 AM.
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  33. 04-12-12 10:05 AM #33
    Jayvegas420
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    Verlander
    I.Kennedy
    Kershaw (2)
    Halladay (2)
    J.Weaver
    Greinke
    J.Marquis
    Porcello
    M.Harrison
    Vogelsong
    J.Shields
    C.Hamels
    C.Lee
    Romero
    D.Price
    Lincecum
    Hellickson
    Ogando
    Felix (2)
    Lester
    CC
    T.Hudson
    Wandy Rodriguez
    R.Oswalt
    Carpenter

    I had a feeling Lincecum was going to be a problem this year. Chased from the game after 2 innings.
    Angels were just unlucky.
    Anyway here's what we have for today:
    Brewers & Diamondbacks!
    GL
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  34. 04-13-12 12:09 AM #34
    Jayvegas420
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    Verlander
    I.Kennedy
    Kershaw (2)
    Halladay (2)
    J.Weaver
    Greinke
    J.Marquis
    Porcello
    M.Harrison
    Vogelsong
    J.Shields
    C.Hamels
    C.Lee
    Romero
    D.Price
    Lincecum
    Hellickson
    Ogando
    Felix (2)
    Lester
    CC
    T.Hudson
    Wandy Rodriguez
    R.Oswalt
    Carpenter

    Well, grenkie screwed us with a huge L & I am gonna move Kennedy into the Greean, I don't see the Backs blowing this lead.
    Tomorrow we have:
    PRICE
    CLIFF LEE
    M.HARRISON
    &
    FELIX
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  35. 04-13-12 12:43 AM #35
    Jayvegas420
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    Verlander
    I.Kennedy (-125)
    Kershaw (2) (-150) (-220)
    Halladay (2) (-149) (-135)
    J.Weaver (-205) (-165)
    Greinke (-120) (-120)
    J.Marquis
    Porcello
    M.Harrison
    Vogelsong
    J.Shields
    C.Hamels (-140)
    C.Lee     (-160)
    Romero (-114)
    D.Price (-115)
    Lincecum (+100) (-117)
    Hellickson
    Ogando
    Felix (2) (-115) (-155)
    Lester
    CC (-174)
    T.Hudson
    Wandy Rodriguez (+122)
    R.Oswalt
    Carpenter

    So, It appears our big money makers so far are Kershaw, Halladay & Felix.

    Lincecum better go on a huge streak or record a loss & get off the list.

    Lee might be in the same situation if the Phillies lose tomorrow.

    Felix could be our 1st pitcher to reach Gold Status.


    Is Ogando a starter?
    Does anyone know the lines from the Porcello & Harrison games?
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