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Good question... only a few helpful answers... doesn't seem like many people here plan a head betting... they just pick what they like that day.... defintely gonna look at the stats mentioned. Thinking of sticking with mainly dogs, and following some different mm ideas will create a thread
I had never heard of some of the stats mentioned... defintely will have to check them out.... seems like fangraphs is solid, and espn and mlb .com are junk
some guys here use team totals
I'm still real raw with betting bases. I spent the first 2 seasons listening to friends who bet it heavily and turned profits. Tailed them a lot. Learned to find pitchers who are undervalued by oddsmakers and ride them, don't blindly bet big juice pitchers, stay on teams that are hot, don't bet on teams because they are due, the rl that looks so tempting is usually fool's gold, don't be scared to bet under low totals and over high ones. Lots of stuff. Most important was learning to track my plays so I could see where I was making the same mistakes.
Stats websites besdies fangraphs and baseball prospectus ?
the hardball times is another good website for reading, but fangraphs and BP are about as good as you can do.
baseball reference is also an excellent source for pure stats. They have it all, from pitchers outings with specific umps, specific catchers, etc. etc. Huge database.
I sometimes follow streaks.
If a team wins 3 in a row,I,ll ride that team till they lose,If the prices are reasonable.
Same goes for fading teams that loss 3 in a row.I,ll fade till they win.
Baseball can be streaky.
Sounds good, yeah I was reading some of the hardball times today, good stuff. Do you have to pay for the stats on fansgraph? I noticed there was an an area for a log in and what not... I'm glad those sites work while I'm at work makes life easier for when your getting home at 630
All the stats are free on Fangraphs EB. For like 4 bucks you can get a login that gives you access to an extra article or 2 a week and a brief write-up on each player's page. I subscribed just because I appreciate the site so much and 4 bucks is chump change.Originally Posted by ebbearsfb1
DO NOT waste time with stats. Bet dogs in the +135 to +170 range consistently and monitor series price movements( and track them) and then leave the first game of questionable series alone and bet accordingly afterwards.
Baseball is the biggest line movement sport out (mostly because of scalping) so it can get tricky but its all about the value. The wrong side usually has the best value at some point.
Its baseball- any shit team can win any day and any joblow could throw a no hitter.
ebbears, are you a member of Bookie Busters? I followed Franks picks last year
for great profits up until Sept.
His NHL sucked ytd.
James Jones' double play system is money in the bank also.
My +RL fave system has hit around 70% 3 yrs straight.
I labby the Phils in preseason. +30 units before the 1st pitch last year. (+2 units so far)
not a better of bookie busters just have the pdf file...
your just using a labby line for the phillies this preseason? sounds a good idea before their prices sky rocket
whats the +rl fave system that you use? and not sure who james jones is
but then i'll hear people say because of all the stats, if your willing to break em down , then you have a a good chance of being profitable
defintely dogs are the way to go
+RL fave is picking the +RL that has higher (AM) odds than the ML of the opposite team. You could have as many as 10 games a day if you like that much action.
You could do a search on James Jones. He has multiple systems he sells.
Basically, the double play system is a two game chase. Look at the 2nd game in a series.
If the home ML fave loses by 2 or more runs and is the ML fave again the next day, chase
them for the series. (if they become dogs, it works too)
Last edited by rkelly110; 03-10-12 at 10:07 AM.
interesting stuff for both will have to look into each
cleanuphitter.com
Forgot about team rankings.com also... mlb nation got some good stuff
Rkelly would tonight count.... mets Rl is plus 140.... astros ml is plus 120.... is that how the rl system works?
I personally believe the Detroit Tigers -1.5 every night might work out to your benefit. I think The Tigers have that squad where they can dominate most games. The entire goal is for +100 or more... and it gives you the ability to save plenty of juice. If you're going to bet MLB this year... keep an eye on those TIGS.
Biggest worry for tigers is that defense.. that could cost some serious runs
The best way to cap baseball is to know everything about baseball. Good luck!
haha good advice road dog
I hate baseball.....i "almost" hit huge 6-7 team parleys every year only to have some schmuck mess it up
terrible decision. should rarely ever play the run line in baseball IMO unless there is really a huge edge. to many games decided by 1 run. i think its like 38%
Guys here that say MLB is easy to cap send their McDs paycheck to their bookies, then they make their picks and then their bookie shoves the money they sent them down some Costa Rican hookers G-strings and takes em in the back and ***** the hell out of em and says thanks for thinking MLB capping is easy now send some more money
was reading sports insights article they put out on the season, stated baseball is by far the most profitable sport betting against the public. +20.7 year avg over the last 9 seasons.
so you can't be a square and be productive in baseball.
I agree, I have profited most off Baseball in the last 4 years. I rarely ever let stats come into play. I have made a profit betting lousy pitchers and unders and watching where the line moves. Most of the time when a total seems too good to be true, it is. Alot of 5 inning unders as well. You will see two pitchers off lousy starts come in with a very low total and then see public pound the over, as the game gets close there is either little to no line movement or it drops. Baseball can be a forget how you did last time sport, alot of people get fooled by that. Guys like Wang, Willis made me some bank last year.
As far as the other sports, I feel like there is way, way too much focus on football games because there are so few and basketball, who wants to bet a total and and it does not matter until the last few minutes as a garbage basket comes through for the cover.
In baseball because there is so much control by one player, there is an advantage betting pitchers and it outdoes any other sport.
Pitching matchups for the first five innings, only way to go
You're contradicting yourself here. You state that you rarely factor in stats--which is probably one of the biggest mistakes you can make in baseball, a game of stats. Then you state that there is so much control by one player. If you use stats, you can analyze how any one player performs under different variables. This creates an edge that should influence your betting decisions.
Im sorry, I should have meant hitting stats. I dont look as a lineup as a whole and say this team has been great, because it me its any given day. Obviously if the juice is there enough to justify it, then I will lay off. My correction.
You take a 4.5 ERA pitcher against a 6 ERA and then he gives up 9 runs and you're like fuk what is wrong with this bum I could throw better
So the next game you take his opponent and he pitches a shutout and you're like **** hes god, this is basically why baseball stats mean nothing, you can give me the average between a pitcher's great games and blowups and it doesnt tell me a fukin thing about what hes going to pitch like TODAY
Every bookie on the planet (except for Bookmaker which basically closes during baseball season) suddenly offers half juice on baseball, if its also the easiest sport to cap I doubt they would double your edge by cutting the juice in half
bet, thats what I was trying to say. I dont let the hitters effect my plays against a lousy pitcher. This works with me for unders, rarely will I make a play on a side because alot of times the juice will make it hard to play. You just have to watch the lines..
I just buy different packages from all the touts. Cooper's Picks, Fazzer Sports Syndicate, LT Profits Sports Group, Iwin, Topgamers totals and Iwin's 1st 5 picks can me never lead you without a winning year. Just do your own research but I prefer to buy my picks.
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