[Ernie_Money]

Brief Intro: A friend has wanted me to post on forums for a while, so I have been lurking for a few months on a couple to see how things work. It is unreal how tempting it is to just dash into someone's post and respond (whether to agree on a good point or strongly disagree on rookie mistakes). We weeded through maybe 30 forums and picked 17 to post in to start. He told me I can just copy and paste my write-up, but I can see that getting old, because I will bet half-time spreads on occasion in football and especially in basketball. I will try and downsize the number of places I post at as the weeks roll on based on how the forums respond to me.

Note: A few moderators don't seem to like my username, so I will probably get a new one by the end of the week (and already am using a new one on 2 forums because they didn't like my handle, figuring me for a "spammer"). LOL. For the record, I am not a spammer, I am not a tout, I am not looking to acquire an "email list", I have NOTHING to sell and I am NOT looking to go tout and never will (because 4 years ago I was a regular poster under a different name and was recruited by 3 guys to start a new website service. These clowns made tons of promises, etc, but the bottom line was: Disaster. I never got paid, their website sucked, and even though I had a mediocre 2 months (hit about 52%), I HATED picking for "customers" because believe it or not, based on my success at the forum, a lot of people followed me to the crappy website and bought a package from these clowns because of me. I hated the pressure and will NEVER do that again. I went underground after that and have avoided the forum scene for the most part, but lurked from time to time.

Reason to start posting again: after being prodded a bit by a buddy, I have decided to try and show people my style of handicapping/betting style. After lurking for several months, I don't see anybody doing my style. I don't see hardly anyone who has a plan to make money at this. Posters just throw picks out there, some with reasoning, many with no reasoning. Most posters are betting units. Huh? Where can you bet units? Is this a currency in Zimbabwe or maybe an Asian country I have never heard of? Who bets units? I bet dollars. American dollars.

Goals: I have goals. My goal is to make $1000 a week. Every week. Do I win $1000 every week? Of course not. Not even close. But after 52 weeks, I will have met my goal.

Background: I am starting my 5th year doing this "system" if you will, this week. There have been major tweaks along the way, and I will keep tweaking it as I go. Any "betting amount system" that stays hardfast will not work over time. You need to tweak it constantly to win consistently. When the NBA starts, I do have a few system plays that I will show people, too, that are NOT connected to my weekly bets, the system plays will be a separate tally not connected with the $1000 a week goal.

Brief synopsis of $1000-a-week system: The week starts every Monday. I have found that the fewer plays you make, the better the odds of winning in the long run. So with that said, if I win $1000 by Tuesday or Wednesday, I am DONE for the week. Period. That was how I started 4 years ago, but I have tweaked that, too. Also, many times, I have gotten to $800 or $900 won by Wednesday, and then just couldn't get to $1000, and ended up the week being up $400 or $500, so some weeks, if I hit $800 or $900 early in the week, I will quit for the week. Getting "fixated" on that $1000 number can be detrimental at times, I have found. Also, I have losing weeks. If I am down $2000 half-way through a week, I may reset my goal for the week to only lose $1500. And then I spread the $1500 or whatever I lost out over 10 weeks or 20 weeks, so if I lose $2000 one week and spread it out over 20 weeks, then I need to win $1100 a week for the next 20 weeks. It is a built-in money management feature designed to keep me from chasing and getting fixated on that $1000 number. I will chase at times. But I chase responsibly.

Tweak to the system: If I meet my goal by midweek and "quit" for the week, BUT, I feel I might be on a hot streak, I will keep betting, but will start the following week "early". And generall I'll reduce my bet size because I have more days to work with. If it is baseball season, though, usually I just quit for the week. Discipline is the key here.

Recommendation to the viewers: Do not, I repeat, do NOT coat-tail my plays. Just watch. Remember this is the Internet. You don't know me. You do not know my credentials. I have no PROVEN track record on any forum. I could be some dumbass huckleberry who tells tall tales. Do NOT coat-tail my plays. Watch me for 20 weeks, 30 weeks, maybe 52 weeks and allow me to establish a track record. Then think about coat-tailing me. I have been handicapping for about 20 years, but how do you KNOW this? You don't. I could be a teenager for all you know, picking games out of a hat.

DO NOT COAT-TAIL ME

Just watch for a few months and if what I do makes sense, then maybe you can start coat-tailing. But wait at least 3-to-6 months or more.

I try to exercise discipline when I bet, so make sure you do. Do NOT blindly follow me right from Day 1, that would NOT be smart at all as I have no recorded track record. Please wait at least 3 months. By then, you should have a "feel" for what I am doing and then you can make a judgment on whether you want to try coat-tailing a little with smaller amounts on a trial basis.

I am not big on doing huge write-ups and time may not allow for write-ups every time, but I will always try and give at least a sentence or 2 of reasoning.

Tonight: I don't like the card at all. At all. I will go with:

Boston/Oakland over 9.5 --- Esteban Loaiza has been awesome his last 3 starts and I feel that it is time for him to regress to his normal mean and Kason Gabbard is making his 2nd big-league start and only went 5 1/3 in his debut, so this exposes a bad Boston bullpen tonight since Gabbard probably will not go deep. The Red Sox have not gone over 7 straight (with a push in there) so they are about "due" for an Over and overdue to get their sticks moving. A 16 mph breeze blowing out to RF in Oakland sure won't hurt.

I use Pinnacle most of the time and I will use the available line at the time I post so for this game, the bet is:

$107 to win $100 on Bos/Oak over 9.5

Record 0-0

This officially starts Week 1.

I will start slow this week, as again, I despise the betting card tonight.

[bigboydan]

first off, let me welcome you to the SBRforum Ernie Money and good luck sir

[Hulu]

Wow, can't wait to see this system in action. Any degree of success and I'm sure this will be one popular thread.

[EBone]

Looking forward to your info, sir. Good luck to you.



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[Ernie_Money]

All I ask is that you do NOT coat-tail me for 2 or 3 months.

PLEASE.

I could be a yo-yo, a moron for all you know. This is the Internet. I could be a 15-yr old throwing darts.

Please just watch me for a few months.

This isn't for everyone.

Thank you.

[rolemand]

First off - Welcome Ernie - look forward to seeing how this plays out.

Now for the commentary. Let's pretend this is 3-6 months down the road. You've shown an uncanny ability to avg 800-1000 / week. It's now time for us time dip our feet in the water and we have a board you absolutely hate but make a pick anyway. But on a week where you're up $1000 by Wednesday and there's a Thursday card you absolutely love you most likely will pass.

HMMMM.

This is going to be interesting. Obviously this would be different had you picked a Monday to start this in which you actually liked something. But just seems to be getting off to an inauspicious start.

[EBone]

All I ask is that you do NOT coat-tail me for 2 or 3 months.

PLEASE.

I could be a yo-yo, a moron for all you know. This is the Internet. I could be a 15-yr old throwing darts.

Please just watch me for a few months.

This isn't for everyone.

Thank you.

Understood. Personally, my opinion is this for anyone who coattails people who make selections:

If the coattailer loses, its their fault. If the coattailer wins, its their fault as well. After all, it is the coattailer's money. I haven't seen people get too worked up around here if someone doesn't pick winners. My perception is that this forum is pretty laid back that way. With the perceived major influx of new signups to the forum, that may change. I hope it doesn't though.



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