SBR Top-Rated Sportsbooks
2012 NL Central and more...
Welcome everyone.
I'm looking to get some useful BASEBALL discussion going, so I'm being starting this thread a little early. As I did last year, I'm going to put together a run down of the NL Central this year by making a post detailing some of the important players as well as roster changes for these 6 teams. Because betting a single division is too boring, I'll be talking about and making bets on other teams as well, but I consider my strongest division the NL Central; hence the thread title.
For anyone interested in seeing my results from last year, I attached my spreadsheet tracking all of my bets from last year. I'm not going to lie and say I play for 100's of dollars per unit; my unit last year was right around $4 and 95% of my bets made were for under $20. For those who can afford larger units,; I'm raising my unit size a bit this year, but my goal is to have more money than I started the season with, not become a millionaire. Seriously though, last year I returned about 130% of my initial roll, which amounted to ~15% return on each dollar bet. I'll let my results speak for themselves and not my unit size.
That being said, I rely on strict money management to avoid going broke at any one point in the season. I don't believe that chasing or martingales of any sort will lead to a profitable future; you can either pick winners or you can't. I keep the large majority of my bets to below 5 units, with most running between 1-3 units. With this strategy, I can afford to lose consecutive weeks and still come back strong.
That being said, out of the 19 weeks I bet last year, I only lost more than 1 unit three times. I won more than 5 units 10 times, and more than 12 units 7 times. I did not have a single losing month and the days i struggled to make money on were mainly getaway days (Thursdays and Sundays; although I did also have a losing record on Saturdays). Over my three years of betting I have found that getaway days are hardest for me to make the correct plays, and I will likely make less plays on those days going forward and will probably knock a unit or so off even if I do like a play. A lot of my success was on FF and TT plays, and while I didn't make many of those, I made them only when I felt most confident and had a lot of indicators point towards the play, so I'm not surprised to see those kinds of results. I can't promise that I'll make a lot more of those bets this year, but I will definitely pay more attention to those situations.
Everyone is more than welcome in this thread if the choose. I like the added convo and different opinions brought to the table for each game.
Reply With Quote
Originally Posted by mr.inpak
