Florida 56% - Florida starter Anibal Sanchez has been good so far this year, and particularly at home. He is tougher against right-handed hitters, and Milwaukee is a righty-laden team. An implosion is always a significant possibility with a rookie like him, but if that doesn't happen, Florida will have a big edge overall. Capuano is good and he is likely to keep Milwaukee in the game throughout. But Milwaukee continues to have road problems, and Florida has value as a small home favorite.


Kansas City 41% - Kansas City has had value as a big home underdog for most of the season. While they have been terrible and overvalued on the road all year, their recent road performance is notable, beating Roy Halladay yesterday, and splitting a series against the White Sox two weeks ago in the last road series. Toronto crushes lefties in general, and Odalis Perez does not inspire confidence, but neither does Ted Lilly, and Toronto is a troubled team.


Angels 54% - The Yankees have a significant disadvantage in starting pitching here. Jeff Karstens had a good 4-game run at Triple A before his call-up, and his major league debut was decent. But he still had troubles earlier this year, and he will not get much leeway going against the capable Angels' lineup. Another decent start for him is possible, but a poor start is also relatively likely.

Joe Saunders, on the other hand, is likely to continue with his solid consistency at home. It is true that the Yankees will get a boost statistically against Saunders, seeing him for the second time in the same month. But he is still unlikely to be out pitched by Karstens, which gives the Angels a small overall edge to win, and value with a line close to even money.


Seattle 58% - Boston is a team in a weakened state right now. They are dealing with injuries to many key players - Manny Ramirez, Wily Mo Pena, the list goes on and on. Their bullpen has been shaky of late, with even the usually stellar Timlin and Papelbon having troubles. That gives even more cause for concern with Kyle Snyder starting, who is neither particularly effective nor can be expected to go deep into the game.

On the other side, Seattle starter Baek was solid in Triple A and had a reasonable major league debut at home against a tougher Yankee lineup. He should have a solid start today. Behind him, Seattle has a lineup playing with intensity right now, as well as a relatively deep and capable bullpen.

All this adds up to good value of the side of Seattle at around even money.