Cleveland 52% - Justin Verlander is very likely going to be great for years to come. Right now, however, he may be dealing with negative effects of the grind of the long season that afflicts even the best of young pitchers. His last three road starts have not been good, marked by very high WHIPs and shaky command.

Even if he does have a top-notch start, it is very possible that Jake Westbrook will match it. Cleveland's bullpen is less of a liability at home, and tonight could see the use of sharp rookie Tom Mastny as a closer, who excelled as a reliever in the minors this season, and who has been very good so far in the majors.

With the wind blowing in, this is likely to be a close and low-scoring game, conferring an edge to Cleveland as a small home underdog.


Mets 55% - This game has a very high degree of uncertainty to it, because it is entirely predicated on the likely performance of Oliver Perez, which has little to go on statistically. While he has been terrible in both the majors and minors this year, his last 2 starts in Triple A were extremely good, with a ton of strikeouts, a very low WHIP, and only 1 ER in 13 innings. True, his 2 starts in Triple A immediately prior to those 2 were awful. But considering the Mets' lineup and bullpen, he will not need a dominant start to give them a good chance of winning. In light of his recent Triple A successes, we rate the Mets with a modest edge for this game.