[Ganchrow]

Pittsburgh 59% - Even with Jason Bay out, Pittsburgh still rates a solid edge overall. Gorzelanny is hitting a good stride, and he should have another quality start here against the reasonable but modest Milwaukee lineup. Doug Davis made an adjustment in his last start that supposedly helped him, but he is still in a shaky situation statistically. Even if he has a strong game, Gorzelanny is likely to keep Pittsburgh in the game. Milwaukee's iffy bullpen could factor in significantly here. Pittsburgh's likelihood of a close win is greater than usual.

Mets 60% - Randy Wolf is likely to be in for a rough outing here. Statistically, strong offensive teams like the Mets rebound well after a shut out in hitter-friendly parks when facing mediocre starting pitching the next game. Hernandez will be vulnerable as well, but less so than Wolf. With Philadelphia closer Tom Gordon out, the Mets will also have a significant bullpen edge.

Boston 59% - Detroit had a good win yesterday, but they are still a struggling team, and Boston is an undervalued team at home. Bonderman threw a good game in his last start, but he has been a bit off since the All-Star break, and he might be wearying a bit. This will not be a good spot for him, and a 5-inning, 4-run outing is more likely than usual. Schilling has also been hit of late, but he is likely to match Bonderman's start, and if that happens, Boston will have a good edge overall.

[darkghost]

Mets are a bargain now at -110 while the price on the over has shot way up.

[Ganchrow]

Toronto 62% - Toronto is overvalued on the road this year, with a return of about -11%. Tampa Bay in undervalued at home, with a return of about +18%. An overvalued road team as a prohibitive favorite against an undervalued home team is usually a bad bet, and there is value with Tampa Bay here. Halladay is likely to have a strong game against the weak Tampa Bay lineup, but Seo is capable of keeping up with him. If that happens, Tampa Bay will have a good chance to win. There is also a small but significant chance that Seo will actually have a better outing than Halladay.