[SBRforum Staff]

Mets Plus Phils Equals Offense
By: Ganchrow Sports

Plate crossings should be abundant tonight in Philadelphia where the Mets and Phillies are set to do battle.

This game involves two questionable starting pitchers, two capable offenses in a hitter-friendly park, and a reasonable total, giving solid value to the over. Additionally, there are some other small yet significant situational factors that further fortify the over.

To start with, the Mets are sure to be out for revenge after getting blown out and shut out yesterday. They will be facing another lefty tonight, but Randy Wolf is a huge step down from Cole Hamels, and he is not likely to be able to quell the Mets' hitters if they get hot. It is true that Mets' manager Willie Randolph has taken to sitting his top hitters at surprising times, but after the blowout yesterday, he is likely to send out a strong lineup tonight.

On the other side, the Philadelphia hitters have lately been producing the way they were expected to all season. They have pop in their lineup, and they have scored at least 5 runs in each game of their current home stand so far. They are not likely to get shut down here, and should pressure any pitchers they face tonight.

Again, Philadelphia starter Randy Wolf has not shown much in the majors this year, and his minor league performance suggests he is not likely to improve. His ERA and WHIP were ugly even in his brief time in Double-A this year.

Mets' starter Orlando Hernandez has been pretty good of late, but he is given to the occasional meltdown, which would not be a surprising occurrence here. He also usually yields at least a few runs even when he has a decent start. It is not clear how old he is (40? 37?) nor how durable he is. But this game, facing a strong offense in a hitter-friendly park late in the season, does not present favorable circumstances for him.

On a side note, Philadelphia closer Tom Gordon will also be out for this game with a shoulder injury.

Philadelphia has had 4 consecutive overs to start off their home stand, with at least 11 runs scored in each game. With a total of 10 here, considering the pitching and offenses involved, another over is much better than a 50% proposition.

Play: OVER 10 (-110)

[bigboydan]

i think philly might be the better bet in this game.

[mad]

Nice call Ganchrow Sports (LOL = Ganchrow Sports). Took a whole three innings, but you got there. In fact, looks as if you'll both be right, so congrats Dan too.

[bigboydan]

talk about a no sweater from the start.

[onlooker]

talk about a no sweater from the start.

Thats two in a row over the Mets that were no contest. You think the Mets have put it on cruise control?