[Ganchrow]

Baltimore 53% - This game has a very large edge involved with a play on Baltimore. Roy Halladay's reputation is why Toronto is such a big favorite in this game, but he has not been his usual lights-out self for a few months now. Although he has been generally good, and is likely to have a good start here, he is also likely to get outpitched by Erik Bedard.

Bedard has been nothing short of dominant since mid-June, and was even reasonably good in his last start, where he suffered from exhaustion due to the heat wave that hit Baltimore. Halladay has additionally been less effective in day games over the past 2 seasons. This game is very similar to Halladay's last start, where he was also an undeserving favorite in the -150 range, where we called for a play against him. Baltimore has a much weaker lineup than he faced in that game, but Bedard is very likely to keep Baltimore in the game even if Halladay does shut their offense down.

This game should be close to even money, and as such, there is a lot of value in Baltimore as a sizable underdog.

PLAY: BALTIMORE

[Ganchrow]

Colorado/Dodgers over 8

This game has a low total of 8 because Jeff Francis has pitched well of late, and Derek Lowe, after having been terrible for a stretch, finally pitched a good game in his last start. But the Dodgers have been an extremely strong "over" team at home this year, and this game has a lot of good statistical likelihoods that could drive the score over the total.

First of all, we are not at all convinced that Lowe has solved his problems after just one decent start. He was facing a young, wearied, and slumping Florida lineup, and his tendency towards bad outings is firmly entrenched. He has not been injured or fatigued, just ineffective. If he reverts to that form in this game, the Colorado lineup will be able to take advantage, just as the 3 mediocre lineups Lowe faced in his last 3 home starts were able to.

On the other side, while Francis can be very good, he has also been given to inconsistency throughout his career, and particularly on the road. A sub-par outing against the resurgent Dodger lineup would not at all be a surprise. The Dodgers have hit lefties particularly well this year.

If either pitcher has an off day, which is likely, the score will be at least close to the total by the 6th inning. The number of the line, and the pitchers and offenses involved, give strong value to the over.

PLAY: COLORADO/DODGERS OVER