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Hump Day Over and Under
By: Willie Bee
8/8/2006 10:48:01 AM
Sometimes the stars align just so to present excellent chances on over/under lines. Two such games exist for Wednesday.
Most of the pre-game talk in baseball centers around the pitching matchup, and for good reason. Though he has eight defenders behind him, well, ok, seven behind and one in front, the pitcher is the most crucial player on the diamond at the start of a game.
If he’s on, the ’27 Yankees can’t touch him. And if he’s off, a beer-league softball team can send him to an early shower.
Fans want to see Pedro Martinez square off against Roger Clemens or Jared Weaver against Justin Verlander. Gamblers like those matchups as well, but they’re also just as fascinated in a Russ Ortiz versus Brandon Duckworth contest. Exactly where the over/under lines are set will determine how interested they are.
Two games on Wednesday should draw a lot of interest.
Orioles at Blue Jays, 12:35 p.m. ET: Eric Bedard gets the call for Baltimore against Roy Halladay for Toronto. The young Orioles lefty has been banged around a bit in two of his three starts against the Jays this year, pitching well enough to win in the other game before watching Baltimore’s bullpen implode. The last of those three starts against Toronto came on June 6 and started a string of 11 outings in which Bedard has allowed three or fewer earned runs. He’s had an extra day of rest since his start on Aug 2 and the two hitters he needs to be most concerned with are Vernon Wells and Alex Rios.
Halladay is coming off a loss to the White Sox (Aug 4) and has just one win to show for his last five starts. His two starts against the O’s this year have resulted in a win and a no-decision, the win of the complete game variety back on June 13. Miguel Tejada and Melvin Mora have done well against Halladay. But then, they’ve done well against most pitchers.
Making this an even more inviting target for an under is the fact Laz Diaz should be the plate umpire in this one. Diaz has a 59% under mark this year in his 23 plate appearances.
Phillies at Braves, 1:05 p.m. ET: Randy Wolf, just two starts removed from the DL after major elbow surgery, is slated for Philadelphia against Atlanta’s Chuck James. The game screams offense, at least while those two pitchers are on the mound. With just 8.1 IP under his belt so far, it’s difficult to imagine Wolf will last more than five innings in this one, especially with the warm, muggy conditions that are being forecast for Atlanta. One thing working in his favor is Chipper Jones, who has handled Wolf over the years, is on the DL.
James is 0-3 in his last three starts, though he pitched well enough to win in one of those outings against Florida (July 25). He’s allowed 10 HR in his previous six starts covering 30.1 IP, an ERA of nearly 7.50 in that span. The Atlanta native has been pushed to 100+ pitches just once this year, that coming in his first start back in late June.
Here again, the home plate umpire comes into play as Fieldin Culbreth should be south of the dish and he’s slightly favors over lines (75%-43%). The last four games Culbreth has called have all gone over the mark.
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