[Ganchrow]

Yankees 57% - Hernandez has had a high degree of volatility this year. He could get crushed as he did in his last outing. If he has a quality start, however, the Mets will have a small overall edge. This is a spot when he is more likely than usual to have a quality start. The edge the Mets would usually have in the pen will be of minimal importance here, because if Mussina has a quality start, the Yankees will have enough in the pen to cover the full game. The Mets have a small edge in lineups as well. The key element to this game will be how good of a game Hernandez has.

Detroit 68% - Wells is likely to achieve his former level of mediocrity at some point soon, but vs the strong and balanced Detroit lineup, he is likely to struggle again. Rogers has had mostly excellent outings mixed with some mediocre ones this year, and he is more likely to have a strong start for this game than usual. Beyond that, the strong Detroit pen is in well-rested shape, while the Pittsburgh pen is a bit extended and not close to its optimal state. With significant edges in all areas of this game, Detroit rates a big overall advantage.

Washington 55% - Corcoran had a reasonably successful debut start his last time out, and vs the weak Washington lineup at RFK, he is likely to have another good outing. O'Connor has been generally effective at home this year, and he should have another quality start this game. Both teams rate roughly even in all areas.

Toronto 64% - Bernero had four good starts at AAA recently, but he is still likely to get hit in this game. Janssen has had a typical rookie starting pitcher's high volatility so far this year, and he will be vulnerable vs the capable Philadelphia lineup. However, this is a promising spot for him to throw a quality start. If he doesn't, the weak Toronto middle relievers will be hard pressed to stop further damage.

[moses millsap]

Starting to think the Pirates and D-Backs should get an automatic 10% marked off the final percentage, lol.

[Ganchrow]

Oakland 60% - Saarloos has a curious day/night disparity in his career favoring day games, but that is in all likelihood a statistical anomaly with no significance. His last start at home at night vs the capable Dodger lineup fortifies that assumption. He is likely to have a strong outing here. Vargas is also likely to have a quality start, as he benefits greatly from pitching in pitcher-friendly parks. Oakland has enough pen strength for this game to close it out effectively, but if they have another extra-inning game they will be at a disadvantage.

Angels 51% - Penny's last 3 starts have been mediocre, and reports say he has been suffering from a myriad of minor ailments. Colon has been having problems getting into form his last 2 starts coming back from the DL, and while he is sure to do so in the near future, it might not happen in this game. Still, the Angels rate an edge in starting pitching and bullpen. The Dodgers have a strong lineup edge. Taken together, there is much uncertainty and competing strengths and weaknesses involved.

San Diego 54% - The expected performances of both starters are frought with uncertainty. Both have been all over the map this year as far as consistency is concerned. San Diego will have a bullpen edge, the importance of which will be significantly reduced the better Wright pitches. The weakness of both lineups adds to the unpredictability of this game.