[lurk]

Hey everybody, I've been on a betting break since the end of the nba playoffs (came in with some decent winnings from mlb/nba season, did pretty well first half of the playoffs, went on a losing streak towards the conference finals and decided to leave with my winnings while I still had them). Even with my terrible money management I've ended up making more money than I've lost through the few years I've been doing this, but I am by no means a good capper. I like to think I have a good feel for baseball and football, but I've got a lot to learn about the capping process (and definitely money management).
With all that unnecessary stuff said, I have a question for you more experienced cappers. With a game like the Arizona game tonight, where my initial "research" made me think that there was decent value on Arizona at near even odds, it seems like most of the money coming in is on zona with little to no movement to the ml price, have people out there found that it's best to avoid these games in the long run? I know sometimes you'll win and sometimes you'll lose going with the square bet, but is it generally a good idea to run when you feel like you've been trapped? I assume the answer to that is yes, but does anybody feel like they do well for themselves cherry picking square plays? I know this might not be the best example because I wouldn't have expected the odds to be too far away from where they are and collmenter pitching against the rockies for the second time in 6 days is far from a sure thing, but I'd like to hear what people have to say about their experiences with situations like the one I'm trying to describe over the long term.

I took Arizona at -105 for a smallish play, but I'd love to hear what people with more experience would say about a play like that where I'm feeling relatively good about it but everything is telling me that I'm being trapped by the big bad book.

Thanks everybody, sorry for the long post

[alexn]

Arizona has been money for me ever since they started hitting again during their series with the Nats. I took them last night even though it closed at +118 and looked like a trap. They ended up winning just like I thought they would. I see the exact same outcome tonight and will be taking them again.

[bostonboss]

too many on arizona...................colorado will win somehow

[alexn]

Wasn't that what people were saying yesterday?

[Love The Action]

AZ was a great bet early at plus odds. The current price makes it a losing bet in the long run. Generally, you should stay away from a dog that moves to a fave, unless you bet it early as a dog. Good luck!

[broadway6]

AZ was a great bet early at plus odds. The current price makes it a losing bet in the long run. Generally, you should stay away from a dog that moves to a fave, unless you bet it early as a dog. Good luck!

i 100% agree

[lurk]

I took them at -105 earlier and feel like it's an acceptable bet, but I think I understand what you're saying and I appreciate the advice...won't win long term with acceptable bets, not looking for a slightly better chance than not that a bet will win unless I'm getting a good enough price. Which is actually how my betting usually trends, win more when I look for that small group of games that I really like and research/narrow it down from there to find a bet or two that I think has very good value...win less when I see a line that looks better than I think it should without putting much time into actually trying to determine how much value I think is there. Unfortunately once I've won a few and am playing with house money the degenerate gambler in me tends to take over and insignificant values start looking like locks.

I appreciate the advice, best of luck to everybody tonight!
(Also, LTA, you went on a run with those NBA playoff totals earlier this year while I was still around. For my money you're one of the better cappers on here with some really good write-ups, keep it up and thanks for the help!)