Overview: I have created a tool that creates the fair ML for each game. It generates the ML based on all of the info I provide it. It calculates the expected runs for each team at a neutral park (based on each team's current lineup that has been) and then adjusts it to the SP/Bullpen they are facing along with an adjustment to the park factors for where they are hitting. I update the lineups daily, so for example, the Marlins lineup does not include Hanley Ramirez since he is out. I also tweak the SP/bullpen expected innings pitched for the game along with expected runs given up to reflect in a way that reflects more about how they will perform as opposed to how they have performed. Most of the lines generated are extremely close to what they are in most sportsbooks because I'm sure this is pretty much identical to how they create initial lines and then tweak them based on public perception. I highlight lines that are off by more than 0.20 and review them for additional analysis to see if I want to upgrade them to "plays".
Those plays are official. Any play I post is after I reviewed it (i.e. check betting %'s, injuries, lineup changes, SP/bullpen projections) and placed my bet. Right now I'm waiting the right moment to take the Rays/Tigers over 8 (i have the projected total as 9.27) and the Astros/Rockies under 9.5 (i have the projected total as 8.77). If you want I can even post all of the odds I have so you can see just how close they are to most of the games.
SBR Top-Rated Sportsbooks
Bloodhail's 8/23 Plays (12-7, +7.70)
Reply With Quote
