[BigDofBA]

Just wondering because anytime someone takes a favorite everyone says it's a square play.

I would say half of my plays are dogs and half are favorites.

I don't see what the big problem is with taking favorites.

If taking dogs is so sharp, the why don't people just bet on every underdog and see where that gets them.

To me it's about picking spots. I've seen people talk smack after a guy takes a team that's -180 and wins. Why is that? Paying that kind of juice will kill you in the long run but so will only betting underdogs.

If the game is a winner, it's a winner.

[warriorfan707]

God bless this post

Betting on dogs in baseball is a one way ticket to the gutter unless you are extremely rare and you do it in a consistent rectangular fashion

In other words you cant be a quarter pounder with cheese about it

[Raybolts]

You are ahead of most if you can find good value in both favorites and dogs.

[warriorfan707]

You are ahead of most if you can find good value in both favorites and dogs.

[BigDofBA]

Yeah. I took the Cardinals tonight because they are simply the better team and I didn't see Chicago sweeping them. I guess I'm a square.

I guess I'm a square because I didn't take a team that is like 20 games below ,500 against the bet offense in the NL.

I understand the beat team in baseball only win like 60% of the time and juice will kill you if you bet favorites but sometimes you have to take the favorite because they are probably going to win.

If you just bet dogs you're going to get killed to.

[warriorfan707]

Yeah. I took the Cardinals tonight because they are simply the better team and I didn't see Chicago sweeping them. I guess I'm a square.

I guess I'm a square because I didn't take a team that is like 20 games below ,500 against the bet offense in the NL.

I understand the beat teams in baseball only win like 60% of the time and juice will kill you I you just bet favorites but sometimes you have to.

If you just bet dogs you're going to get killed to.

Its like I wrote that post.

Well done

[BigDofBA]

Its like I wrote that post.

Well done

Ty.

I'm just using tonight's game as an example. It was trendy to take the Cubs for some reason. Why?

The Cubs suck and are well below .500 where as the Cardinals have a ton of talent and are about 10 games over .500.

Likewise, there was no pitching matchup that favored Chicago.

What were the odds of Chicago beating A better team three times in a row? I would say like 15%.

Paying -150 for the Cards felt like a good bet in this spot.

I realize nothing is for certain and they could get swept that's why I never do anything crazy and bet outside of my means.

[texhooper]

people say that shit due to the "takes one to know one" theory, and i'd venture to say 90% of those comments are made either before the game starts or after the dog wins. if you call someone a sharp, it implies that you yourself are sharp because you can recognize the "sharp" play yourself. and it's more fashionable to consider a sharp play a dog because if you pick a dog that wins then you've obviously spotted a weakness in the line...nevermind that hitting a -130 fave that should be -200 never garners the same kind of praise.

[warriorfan707]

It was trendy to take the Cubs for some reason. Why?

The Cubs absolutely suck, as evidenced by their record.

But they can hit, and have been playing well at home. They have actually been a bit of a cash cow for me recently, I have cashed like 3 bets in a row on them.

Baseball is a game of streaks. You were on the right side tonight, but a lot of times it is wise to throw the regular season records out the window and look at what they are doing recently.

[goldengreek]

God bless this post

Betting on dogs in baseball is a one way ticket to the gutter unless you are extremely rare and you do it in a consistent rectangular fashion

In other words you cant be a quarter pounder with cheese about it

Easily the worst post of the year

[warriorfan707]

Easily the worst post of the year

If you can do it and profit, all the more power to you. Most can't.

[No coincidences]

Well I'll say this: I wouldn't recommend betting a lot of faves if you're going to give baseball a try in September.

I had the Giants today, and typically, I'll have at least 1-2 plays a day that I lay juice (even road juice). For the most part I bet on teams with a + in front of their name (especially at home), but it has nothing to do with square or sharp. That's all nonsense. It's winners and losers -- that's what we're all after. The winning side is the sharp side, period and always.

It's just easier, I think, to profit long-term if you can find the right dogs at the right times, which is very applicable in baseball because of number of games, streaks, importance of the game, etc. -- vs. football or basketball.

[warriorfan707]

it has nothing to do with square or sharp. That's all nonsense. It's winners and losers -- that's what we're all after. The winning side is the sharp side, period and always.

couldnt agree more

[No coincidences]

I'll also say this: some guys are very gifted at finding the right dog around here. LB is one of them. But I'll also say some guys are very gifted at finding the right faves. warriorfan is one. Mr. Profit and paco have been that in the past. Hell, even brahmabull lately. It's not my strength, but again, the wins and your profits are what matter. "Value" is picking the right winners at the right times, and if that means it's taking heavy faves as long as it isn't done blindly, by all means go for it.

[Sawyer]

Well said. It's all about picking right spots. Sometimes you should pick favs, sometimes you should pick dogs.

In April&September, I focus on dogs.
In July&August, majority of my bets are favs.

But in NHL, you should never bet favs, lol.

[GoBlue23]

God bless this post

Betting on dogs in baseball is a one way ticket to the gutter unless you are extremely rare and you do it in a consistent rectangular fashion

In other words you cant be a quarter pounder with cheese about it

Royale wit cheese

[wade1]

I always bet between -120 and + 120 and nothing else. I never won at bases until i started doing that. I don't even look at any other games. Sure I might miss out on some easy wins but anyone who would take a team at -230 give me a call, I have some land in Florida for sale

[Dharmonize]

Royale wit cheese

I love Pulp Fiction too

[linasp]

You should bet on teams in which you see value, it does not matter if it is +200 play or -200. About dogs on september I am quite sure that bookies and bettors will make adjustments because last year dogs has been cashing in on september so this year there won`t be so much value.

[Dharmonize]

I always bet between -120 and + 120 and nothing else. I never won at bases until i started doing that. I don't even look at any other games. Sure I might miss out on some easy wins but anyone who would take a team at -230 give me a call, I have some land in Florida for sale

I will never be an advocate of betting huge favs. But with this firmly set price range of yours, you´re gonna be missing out a lot of winners on both sides. And believe me that dogs at + 150 or higher are especially yummy

[mebaran]

Betting on every single home dog was profitable (1.1% ROI) over the past decade or so, but I'm not sure about it going forward. Past results do not always dictate future ones, but in the past 5766 games where there was a home dog, these are the results:

SU: 2614-3152 (-0.7 rpg)
average line: +125 / -136
on / against: +$6,093 / -$34,321
ROI: +1.1% / -4.4%

[Ice House]

b/c usually the public is betting on the favorite and a lot of times that favorites lose. But sometimes you can "over think " a game and sometimes when a play seems easy ... it actually is easy...

[CHAZ]

Don't even worry about whats square and what is the so called sharp play. Who cares, just pick your plays and move on.

People worry to much about that instead of going with what there gut/stats/system tells them. I honestly do alot better when I pick and post my plays before I read this forum. I can't tell you how many times a thread or stupid stat starts to make me second guess a play.

[mebaran]

Betting on every single home dog was profitable (1.1% ROI) over the past decade or so, but I'm not sure about it going forward. Past results do not always dictate future ones, but in the past 5766 games where there was a home dog, these are the results:

SU: 2614-3152 (-0.7 rpg)
average line: +125 / -136
on / against: +$6,093 / -$34,321
ROI: +1.1% / -4.4%

Just for clarity, the on/against numbers are based on $100 bets.

[VicVega91]

Well I'll say this: I wouldn't recommend betting a lot of faves if you're going to give baseball a try in September.

I had the Giants today, and typically, I'll have at least 1-2 plays a day that I lay juice (even road juice). For the most part I bet on teams with a + in front of their name (especially at home), but it has nothing to do with square or sharp. That's all nonsense. It's winners and losers -- that's what we're all after. The winning side is the sharp side, period and always.

It's just easier, I think, to profit long-term if you can find the right dogs at the right times, which is very applicable in baseball because of number of games, streaks, importance of the game, etc. -- vs. football or basketball.

That is the truth, period. On forum board after forum board you have all these guys who call themselves 'sharp' or go around talking about the 'square side' or saying someone has a 'square play'. That is a crock of shit. The ONLY play that is a sharp play is one that puts money in my account, period

[keel44]

A square play does not mean a losing play or even a bad bet. It just means it is the obvious choice. Sometimes the obvious choice wins. A sharp play is a complete opposite; like the Nationals and Wang beating the Phillies, AND predicting it correctly.

[Dharmonize]

I honestly do alot better when I pick and post my plays before I read this forum. I can't tell you how many times a thread or stupid stat starts to make me second guess a play.

Absolutely agree! And trying to separate relevant from irrelevant info is almost as tough as capping the games itself

[guil0000]

The only reason I think betting dogs is profitable in the long run is bookies knows The public will always put more money on the favs so they juice it up. So theoretically Dogs have more value then favs. That being said I thought MLB and NHL were the same but I'm realizing picking only dogs in MLB is way harder then NHL.

[Boxer300]

All sides should be considered in every game...but once the number gets above -200 I almost never pay that much juice for any one team. If I am going to take a number that high I am pretty confident in the pick and I usually parlay it with another pick I really like to reduce the juice. I never parlay more than 2 teams. Also I never let who the public is on influence my pick. Sometimes I side with the public and sometimes I don't.

[Sawyer]

Hard to find value on favs. I don't say you should never bet favs. Even sometimes a -160 fav can be valuable. But not often. Value lies often on underdogs..

[warriorfan707]

Don't even worry about whats square and what is the so called sharp play. Who cares, just pick your plays and move on.

People worry to much about that instead of going with what there gut/stats/system tells them. I honestly do alot better when I pick and post my plays before I read this forum. I can't tell you how many times a thread or stupid stat starts to make me second guess a play.

[Ice House]

That is the truth, period. On forum board after forum board you have all these guys who call themselves 'sharp' or go around talking about the 'square side' or saying someone has a 'square play'. That is a crock of shit. The ONLY play that is a sharp play is one that puts money in my account, period

true that! its soo ******* annoying to hear people of this forum say that is a square play blah blah blah the only sharp play is the one that makes money.


Dogs win, Favorites win... sometimes crazy things just happen. Sometimes it doesn't matter what research or stats you know.

[gangeriver]

I don't think so. sharp is a person detecting value plays....favorite or dog it doesn't matter. sometimes a favorite can be +EV
I remember last Cueto / Zito game.... Cueto -150 / Zito +140

[thebestthereis]

do an experiment on the side. bet only favorites and only dogs, two columns. i think you'll see you don't win that many more favorites yet the juice buries you and profit goes down the toilet along with the shit you just took.