[JMon]

Home teams sweeping a three game series have not been profitable in the long run. Since 2004, it has produced a record of 790-624 (-37.61). Only winning years were '04, '05 '08 and '09. Likewise, this situation for 2011 sets at 55-53 (-12.46).

One would think that Verlander would be an auto play given the above numbers. However if we dig a big deeper and look how Cleveland plays in a possible Home sweep of a three game series, we find they are.....

*30-13 (13.80) since Aug. 15th 2004 (Divisional play 14-8 (+2.7)). A bit a skid within divisional play, but still positive.
*7-0 since Sept. 29 2010
*6-0 this year in home (3 game series) sweeps
*Carmona is 5-2 (+3.1) since Sept 27, 2006 within this situation
*Carmona is 3-0 this year, with a big win over Lester as a 1.60+ dog within this situation

Secondly, we see Det is a bit of a bad run. Does this spell disaster for Verlander. Perhaps, as I dig deeper to see how Clev plays at home against those on a three or more losing streak, other than the first game of a series they are....

* 22-1 since Aug 20, 2008, however the loss came this year against the Toronto!
*Carmona is 4-0 since April 18, 2010 within this situation (3-0 this year)

Doing a quick check on how Verlander performs as an road favorite trying to avoid a sweep in a three game series...
* 2-2 (-.70) since Oct 26, 2007, (1-0 this year!)

How do the Tigers perform as a road favorite trying to avoid a sweep in a three game series...

* 9-6 (+1.15) May 27th 2004 (2-0 this year!)

Tigers on the road as a favorite, on a three game losing streak are...

*12-15 (-7.03) since May 27, 2004
*1-3 this year.



By all means the above does not suggest to bet against Verlander, but I do think the value lies in Cleveland here as a big dog! Good luck with whatever you decide!

[Jago2008]

I was analyzing this game too, thanks for your analysis.