[ebemiss]

I've just updated my Individual and Bullpen ratings through yesterday's games. (the higher number the better). I use these numbers along with other team stats to generate a daily projection for each game.

Here are all the pitcher ratings broken down into 2 categories:

1. >=95 IP
2. >=30 IP and <95 IP

http://nationalsportsrankings.com/11pitcherratings.html

Here are my projections for Friday's games.

Away-- Houston Astros Bud Norris
Home-- Chicago Cubs Carlos Zambrano -131



Projected Game Total 8.8

Away-- St. Louis Cardinals Chris Carpenter -139
Home-- Pittsburgh Pirates Paul Maholm



Projected Game Total 7.5

Away-- San Diego Padres Cory Luebke
Home-- Philadelphia Phillies Cole Hamels -186



Projected Game Total 6.9

Away-- New York Mets Mike Pelfrey
Home-- Florida Marlins Chris Volstad -132



Projected Game Total 8.5

Away-- Atlanta Braves Jair Jurrjens -131
Home-- Cincinnati Reds Bronson Arroyo



Projected Game Total 8.6

Away-- Colorado Rockies A. Cook
Home-- Arizona Diamondbacks Daniel Hudson -164



Projected Game Total 9

Away-- Washington Nationals John Lannan
Home-- Los Angeles Dodgers Hiroki Kuroda -134



Projected Game Total 7.1

Away-- Milwaukee Brewers Shaun Marcum
Home-- San Francisco Giants Matt Cain -133



Projected Game Total 6.3

Away-- Los Angeles Angels Ervin Santana -125
Home-- Baltimore Orioles A. Simon



Projected Game Total 9.1

Away-- Oakland Athletics Trevor Cahill
Home-- New York Yankees Phil Hughes -153



Projected Game Total 9.3

Away-- Chicago White Sox Gavin Floyd
Home-- Cleveland Indians Carlos Carrasco -121



Projected Game Total 8.5

Away-- Seattle Mariners Felix Hernandez
Home-- Boston Red Sox John Lackey -153



Projected Game Total 8.3

Away-- Toronto Blue Jays Jo-Jo Reyes
Home-- Texas Rangers Colby Lewis -164



Projected Game Total 9.6

Away-- Tampa Bay Rays Wade Davis -114
Home-- Kansas City Royals Luke Hochevar



Projected Game Total 8.6

Away-- Detroit Tigers Max Scherzer -119
Home-- Minnesota Twins Brian Duensing



Projected Game Total 7.8

[wade1]

So what your projections do is tell you how many runs should be scored but not how many will be scored

[ebemiss]

Yes, just a stat based projection I've created. If I had the magic formula to know "how many will be scored" we'd all be rich.

[wade1]

This is not an easy game to cap. The best thing I have found is to bet against the public

[ebemiss]

Exactly who is the public?

[jlee]

How is NYM and FLA so low? Pelfrey is horrible on the road and Volstad is just bad against lefties. I had them on the over 4.5 line in 4.5 innings. FLA's bullpen is good though, but other than that, 6.9 is low for game total

[ebemiss]

How is NYM and FLA so low? Pelfrey is horrible on the road and Volstad is just bad against lefties. I had them on the over 4.5 line in 4.5 innings. FLA's bullpen is good though, but other than that, 6.9 is low for game total

I'm not sure you're looking at the right game. I had it at 8.5 exactly what it opened as.

6.9 was for the Phillies game which looks like it's going UNDER.