1. 07-22-11 10:09 AM #1
    stevenash
    stevenash's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 01-17-11
    Posts: 62,663
    Betpoints: 32317

    Houston +145 over Chicago Cubs

    Serious overlay here.

    I like Bud Norris, good live arm, the kid is a strikeout artist.
    Forget the 5-6 record, he pitches for a crappy tea.

    Earned run average is OK at 3.59, the WH/IP ratio is below league average at 1.28
    Here's the thing I really like, more than a strike out/per inning 118K's in 117 IP's, so he's got that out pitch against a team that pretty much likes to swing.

    Cubs only have 35 lifetime at bats v. Norris, but are only 7-35 (.200) not that much of a cross section, but clear indication.

    Of those 7 hits, only 5 singles, two doubles, and in those 35 at bats, Cubs have struck out 14 times.
    Do the math, 14/35 is 1 strikout every 2 1/2 batters, that's just sick.

    Cubs send out Zambrano, not as much of a nut job as he used to be, but still a nut job.
    Zabrano has a crappy earned run average, 4.78
    Crappy WH/IP ratio 1.41, is not the K artist, power pitcher he used to be.

    Houston's current line up has no problem with him, 50-173 lifetime that's .289, on base percentage is a lofty .366, Carlos Lee flat out owns his fat ass going 24 for 65 with 5 home runs.

    I know, I know, this is Houston, backing them is risky business, and I'm not advocating going 'all in', but with Norris at a very generous +145, I'll take 'em all day.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  2. 07-22-11 10:13 AM #2
    WolfpackChuck
    WolfpackChuck's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-21-11
    Posts: 191
    Betpoints: 0

    There's definitely value in Houston today.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  3. 07-22-11 10:34 AM #3
    san2c
    san2c's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-18-09
    Posts: 305
    Betpoints: 234

    Very nice writeup, much better then the usual "so and so is a lock today" posts. Although I find it real hard backing road teams who are this bad
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  4. 07-22-11 10:37 AM #4
    Bswitz32
    Update your status
    Bswitz32's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-24-09
    Posts: 460
    Betpoints: 364

    I have a hard time backing teams like that as well but we are talking about the CUBS here. They are just as bad of a Home team as Astros are a road team

    Taking Hou +168
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  5. 07-22-11 10:46 AM #5
    CHAZ
    5-2-1 (+2.37 units)
    CHAZ's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-09-09
    Posts: 4,978
    Betpoints: 3180



    Raining pretty hard out there too. Hard to pick a side
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  6. 07-22-11 10:49 AM #6
    keel44
    Update your status
    keel44's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-01-09
    Posts: 3,363
    Betpoints: 12276

    The cubs love to lose 2 then win 1 lose 2 then win 1. They have just lost 2.......
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  7. 07-22-11 10:50 AM #7
    southpaw74
    southpaw74's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-21-09
    Posts: 7,104
    Betpoints: 494

    It's worth a small play for a good return I think
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  8. 07-22-11 10:50 AM #8
    stevenash
    stevenash's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 01-17-11
    Posts: 62,663
    Betpoints: 32317

    Quote Originally Posted by san2c View Post
    Very nice writeup, much better then the usual "so and so is a lock today" posts. Although I find it real hard backing road teams who are this bad
    Thanks, I do the daily fantasy baseball thing, so I take 90 minutes in the morning to go over all the batter v. starting pitcher stats.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  9. 07-22-11 10:54 AM #9
    pokerpro44
    Update your status
    pokerpro44's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 08-20-07
    Posts: 3,134
    Betpoints: 1038

    i went small on houston.g.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  10. 07-22-11 11:14 AM #10
    CJP
    CJP's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-08-11
    Posts: 43
    Betpoints: 158

    Didnt the Cubs sweep Houston earlier this year? I'm from Houston and would never bet on the Astros, unless its a very small bet for fun. They always find a way to lose.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  11. 07-22-11 11:15 AM #11
    DDT
    Head Mod In Charge
    DDT's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-22-09
    Posts: 3,757
    Betpoints: 2338

    I think I'm staying away from this one....GL though
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  12. 07-22-11 11:19 AM #12
    DemoralizdDreamr
    DemoralizdDreamr's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-04-11
    Posts: 4,319
    Betpoints: 78

    Houston -1.5 +224
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  13. 07-22-11 11:19 AM #13
    mart59a
    mart59a's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-21-10
    Posts: 936
    Betpoints: 13553

    If I had to pick a side it would be Houston.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  14. 07-22-11 11:53 AM #14
    OliverBuch
    OliverBuch's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-14-11
    Posts: 11
    Betpoints: 0

    Love the value on Hou -1.5 alt runline, especially with zamb on the bump
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  15. 07-22-11 12:16 PM #15
    BigDaddy
    BigDaddy's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-01-06
    Posts: 8,378
    Betpoints: 729

    i like the play steve

    good luck
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  16. 07-22-11 12:18 PM #16
    miyakuza
    miyakuza's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-03-10
    Posts: 1,411
    Betpoints: 246

    Houston has won 9 of its last 11 against the Cubs AT Wrigley... I like Astros for the win here.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  17. 07-22-11 12:25 PM #17
    jlee
    jlee's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-22-11
    Posts: 375
    Betpoints: 25

    Here is my analysis:

    Houston @ Chicago
    Pick: Houston

    * Astros are 4-2 against the Cubs this season, with the last three wins coming at Wrigley.
    * Zambrano is horrendous against Right handed batters; the Astros having the most AB's in the league as Right.
    * Righties are hitting .187 against Norris; Cubs are also righty heavy. Also, Norris has strong "Day" numbers.

    * Making a pick on Astros for 4 1/2... can't trust the Astros' bullpen.

    More picks on http://jleepicks.blogspot.com/
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  18. 07-22-11 12:30 PM #18
    homerbush
    homerbush's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-17-08
    Posts: 2,317
    Betpoints: 3780

    Under for me
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  19. 07-22-11 12:35 PM #19
    DrStale
    DrStale's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-07-08
    Posts: 9,692
    Betpoints: 1

    Quote Originally Posted by CJP View Post
    Didnt the Cubs sweep Houston earlier this year? I'm from Houston and would never bet on the Astros, unless its a very small bet for fun. They always find a way to lose.
    Nope, other way around.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  20. 07-22-11 12:36 PM #20
    Cappinpicks
    Cappinpicks's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-11-10
    Posts: 14,986
    Betpoints: 48

    Cubs win big
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  21. 07-22-11 12:37 PM #21
    shade3599
    shade3599's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-02-08
    Posts: 378
    Betpoints: 31

    there is just too much value on houston to pass up. Cubs have an error in the last 9 games i believe. Errors really take the wind out of your sails and seem to be contagious. im not betting too much because it is houston. But just really hard to pass up houston today. just a small play for fun.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  22. 07-22-11 12:38 PM #22
    yydouble
    Golf Expert
    yydouble's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-30-11
    Posts: 1,240
    Betpoints: 0

    down to +132. Not worth it anymore. -1.5 +200. lots of Houston $ coming in.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  23. 07-22-11 12:40 PM #23
    OliverBuch
    OliverBuch's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-14-11
    Posts: 11
    Betpoints: 0

    Good stuff Steve. The Carlos Lee vs Zambrono numbers make it very appealing to take Lee over Ramirez total bases prop. Anyone know Ramirez's numbers vs Norris or where I can find them?
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  24. 07-22-11 12:42 PM #24
    Trampas
    Trampas's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-05-11
    Posts: 165
    Betpoints: 1

    small play on hou. just for an interest as it means more when there is money involved
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  25. 07-22-11 12:44 PM #25
    JAKEPEAVY21
    JAKEPEAVY21's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 03-11-11
    Posts: 28,194
    Betpoints: 47529

    anytime a Cubs opponent is + money, I'm game
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  26. 07-22-11 02:01 PM #26
    DemoralizdDreamr
    DemoralizdDreamr's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-04-11
    Posts: 4,319
    Betpoints: 78

    bases loaded no one out and they dont score.
    Why did hunter swing on a 3-0 pitch???
    Why did lee not take any pitches when u clearly see sambrano is pitching wild. Whose the idiot manager for this team?????
    This team is horrible.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  27. 07-22-11 02:02 PM #27
    ebbearsfb1
    ebbearsfb1's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-07-08
    Posts: 18,815
    Betpoints: 1694

    Cy zambrano... gets out of 2 bases loaded jams... hall of fame here we come
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  28. 07-22-11 02:23 PM #28
    Trampas
    Trampas's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-05-11
    Posts: 165
    Betpoints: 1

    hou should be 4-0 at least
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  29. 07-22-11 02:55 PM #29
    CJP
    CJP's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-08-11
    Posts: 43
    Betpoints: 158

    I don't understand why people are upset the Astros can't score. I've been watching them all year and they will always do their best to lose.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
Top
« Previous Thread | Baseball Betting | Next Thread »