[BiffTFinancial]

3* Astros/Pirates under 7.5 - LOSER

1-2 -4.15u.

[Lord and Master]

can't believe how cheap colon is priced for tomorrow, already bid up 12 cents from the open. still seems cheap but i never bet against undisguised really bad pitching. pinnacle thinks he's got some serious regression ahead, tough to agree considering his velocity and the new elbow

padres, rockies, dodgers look great tomorrow

[Lord and Master]

arroyo can make this a game again he's under 80 pithces so he should have some rope

[BiffTFinancial]

can't believe how cheap colon is priced for tomorrow, already bid up 12 cents from the open. still seems cheap but i never bet against undisguised really bad pitching. pinnacle thinks he's got some serious regression ahead, tough to agree considering his velocity and the new elbow padres, rockies, dodgers look great tomorrow

i don't play a lot of ML, but i agree, both Rockies and Padres jumped out to me as nice values. also hard to see Yankees losing at home tomorrow (doesn't hurt that Damon is supposed to be out for TB).

[BiffTFinancial]

man, should've listed to Big Dan on Reds/Cards over. let the line movement spook me.

[Lord and Master]

man, should've listed to Big Dan on Reds/Cards over. let the line movement spook me.

guess what side I was on? it wasn't even close either

[Lord and Master]

first time in his life pujols had the guy ahead of him pitched around? schumaker with 2 walks on 9 pitches his last two times up. only the reds

[BiffTFinancial]

guess what side I was on? it wasn't even close either

you were on the under?

[BiffTFinancial]

3* Jays/Red Sox - PUSH

1-2-1 -4.15u. thought the Jays/Sox over would be easy win with 9 runs at the end of 4, but actually fortunate to get the push. on to tomorrow.

[unamed1]

Well, If you won EVERYTIME what would be the fun in that lol? We'll get it back tomorrow

[Lord and Master]

you were on the under?

yes. wherever there's truly awful pitching you can count on me being on the under, with yankees/red sox/coors/arlington exceptions

[Lord and Master]

i think that was the first time i've ever bet on a game and been down 8-0 and didn't mark it down on the spreadsheet as a loss during the game. unbelievable

[greeny]

i got the cards too, they needa finish or it wont mean nothin

[1Time!]

thoughts on tomorrow's total between angels/mariners?
thinking of having my biggest play of the year....

[BigDan]

guess what side I was on? it wasn't even close either

My guess would be the "sharp" side that always loses to my Cards plays

Hope you were on over but someone was trying to be sharp with this under cause i didnt understand it at all. Westbrook shutting reds down twice in a row? Who knows with arroyo i tend not to respect him but i knew reds would score and figured Cards wouldnt just get punked. Sad way for them to lose but i would normally have faded stl if i took a side in this one, just didnt do it not sure how Albert being back would effect them.


Biff i tried to IM you back right when i got home from work to tell you fuk the line move. i told you it was gonna move bro!!! But your IMs were full and i was exhausted and just got in the shower. Clear your Ims!!

[hardball]

My guess would be the "sharp" side that always loses to my Cards plays

Hope you were on over but someone was trying to be sharp with this under cause i didnt understand it at all. Westbrook shutting reds down twice in a row? Who knows with arroyo i tend not to respect him but i knew reds would score and figured Cards wouldnt just get punked. Sad way for them to lose but i would normally have faded stl if i took a side in this one, just didnt do it not sure how Albert being back would effect them.


Biff i tried to IM you back right when i got home from work to tell you fuk the line move. i told you it was gonna move bro!!! But your IMs were full and i was exhausted and just got in the shower. Clear your Ims!!

Big Dan. Any word on if No Coin coming back? I appreciated his view points.

[Lord and Master]

Hope you were on over but someone was trying to be sharp with this under cause i didnt understand it at all.

if you could "understand" the under based on the starting pitching i wouldn't be betting it

Westbrook shutting reds down twice in a row? Who knows with arroyo i tend not to respect him but i knew reds would score and figured Cards wouldnt just get punked.

the fact that these pitchers suck and everyone knows it is the reason why the under was such a good bet

just because the pitching is bad doesn't mean its going over, the line takes the starting pitchers into account if you didn't already know

[BigDan]

I dont associate with the sbr police(or any police for that matter) so i have no clue, hopefully soon. Doesnt make sense they get rid of ppl that contribute the most. while a bunch of wanna be touts and jerkoffs roam around acting like asses all day around here.

NC always try telling me totals wernt the way to go tho, ive been telling him forever but ive never stuck with them cause a few bad breaks till this season. He needs to come see what time it is....

[HoulihansTX]

Yep No Coin was a solid contributor. He got caught up arguing with the haters.

Ever since Willie Bee retired the Mods have became useless for the most part. Shit blew up on No Coin, and he was cut loose. Definate void w/him not here.

RIP No Coin. LOL

[BigDan]

if you could "understand" the under based on the starting pitching i wouldn't be betting it



the fact that these pitchers suck and everyone knows it is the reason why the under was such a good bet

just because the pitching is bad doesn't mean its going over, the line takes the starting pitchers into account if you didn't already know

You crack me up dog, let me know when variance kicks in and you are actually on the opposite side of me in a stl gm and win.

Just like ive tried to tell you 100 times before, some times ppl that just look at the shit you talking about happen to be right on accident. I dont need that with stl cause i pretty much describe wtf gonna happen and quite accurately if i dont say so myself. The beauty of it is 9 was to low for this line but how can they make it higher? then here comes the great part, guys like you buy it down even cheaper where i get ov9+110 and ov 8.5 +105 while other guys get scared of right side cause someone trying to be super smart moves the line. But i dont care about any of that crap with stl cause ive watched damn near every winning bet on or against stl side or total move against me from so called "sharp" money my whole life (that a decent sample size), square wins to jack and until you can bet both sides of the coin im sick of hearing how great of value it is for you when ppl like you are creating my value with stl.

[BigDan]

L&M, i wasnt trying to be rude just then, im just a little fired up cause we been going at it about these stl gms since Albert got hurt. Trust me i know a lot of the stuff you say is correct but what im saying about stl has always been true. Fact is there a huge group of "squares" that are diehard fans and are terrible with stl and it been like this forever so naturally value hunters see inflated lines both directions cause lots of irrational ppl bet the Cards on both sides at wrong times, but the times you guys really bite are always my fav to be on the "square" side cause the value shoppers create my value on Cards, Not the squares..

Cards are not value city. They Best Buy.

[Lord and Master]

You crack me up dog, let me know when variance kicks in and you are actually on the opposite side of me in a stl gm and win.

the cards had nothing to do with me betting the under

The beauty of it is 9 was to low for this line but how can they make it higher? then here comes the great part, guys like you buy it down even cheaper where i get ov9+110 and ov 8.5 +105 while other guys get scared of right side cause someone trying to be super smart moves the line.

this is quite a stretch

But i dont care about any of that crap with stl cause ive watched damn near every winning bet on or against stl side or total move against me from so called "sharp" money my whole life

the idea that its always sharp money when a side moves is absurd so i wouldn't worry about being against "sharp money" just because line is moving against you. what you should be concerned about is where you bet it versus the true close

square wins to jack and until you can bet both sides of the coin im sick of hearing how great of value it is for you when ppl like you are creating my value with stl.

the thing is the "people like me" are so in the minority that there's no influence on the line. there was something like 20-25% on the under today, i'm very rarely on a side that has more than 35% of the bets and more often than not the line is not moving in my favor from the open. the cards under happened to have had a big move to the under side which doesn't mean that the under AFTER it was bet down(8.5 -110) was the right side. BUT had you got the under at the open of 9 -105 or whatever it was that was 1000% the right side, that should go without saying if you're 20 cents ahead of the true close but its seems you probably still don't believe that.

Let me ask you, at what point do you think the over was no longer a good bet? over 9 -105? over 9.5 +100? give me the number at which you no longer bet the over

[Lord and Master]

L&M, i wasnt trying to be rude just then, im just a little fired up cause we been going at it about these stl gms since Albert got hurt.

I was only really convinced on stl as a home dog to philly in that series nothing beyond that. this under had nothing to do with the cards

Trust me i know a lot of the stuff you say is correct but what im saying about stl has always been true.

i could easily be wrong, all the observations i make are market based. you look at the actual team they are two different animals. i'd personally say its impossible to look at a team and come up with a probability that they will win which is going to be more accurate than pinnacle but to each his own

[BigDan]

side or total on Cards gm doesnt matter, still just a Cards gm to me. And yes i firmly believe that i can "look at a team" (a statement which is a little dismissive of my hand on the pulse of this team) i dont just "look at this team" and i certainly dont think i am capable of doing it with any other team and of coarse i miss my fair share and get emotionally confused and have to step away at times, but most ppl who have known me know i give pretty accurate descriptions of how stl gms are going to shake out more times than not. Do i think i know more than pinny? hell no i wouldnt be here talking to you guys if i did. But i do think pinny doesnt mind louring in "sharp" money on a very public team at times. You not smarter than them either and if they made it easy for certain ppl to look at them and make plays based off market then they wouldnt profit nearly as much.


The "sharp"/big money moves Cards lines and totals when i like them bro, when i think the fan money moving it is when i take the other side or stay away, maybe not you as i have know idea how much you bet but i promise the times im generally betting cards sides or totals it isnt square money making it move the way i want, the way that scares the avg person looking at line movement as a tool. it simply isnt possible to be any other way if you look at it. If NC was arround im sure he could verify as he loves line moves and is terrible with stl.

Never really realized exactly why it went like that until we started talking but now it seems real clear to me. Maybe im wrong it wouldnt be the 1st time and im sure it wont be the last but i dont think so on this one.

[BigDan]

Biff clear your in box and hit me up in da morning i gotta leave early but ill get back to you before i go to the game.

looking at kc/cws h/r/e ov 28.5? 28 be nice, hopefully total gets bet down a little and we get a decent over guy behind the plate.

arz/stl un 9 getting a little now cause prob gonna drop again. might like ff un more, not sure hope i get to see ump situation b4 i go start drinking.

atl/col ov 7...agree with L&M bout col as well, along with Lad. In kershaw i trust.

[BigDan]

yes. wherever there's truly awful pitching you can count on me being on the under, with yankees/red sox/coors/arlington exceptions

think you might wanna add a healthy stl lineup to that list.

i think that was the first time i've ever bet on a game and been down 8-0 and didn't mark it down on the spreadsheet as a loss during the game. unbelievable

strange you make this comment but still liked under?

[BiffTFinancial]

inbox cleared. this time, i erased a bunch so that this problem won't recur every day....

like the COL/ATL over for the afternoon game, CHC/WAS under for tonight (though i haven't gotten to a lot of the games yet). DET/KC RHE over also sounds good, they've treated us well so far.

[Lord and Master]

think you might wanna add a healthy stl lineup to that list.

those I listed aren't on there just because they are good offenses or run producing parks. if that was the case i'd have bjays/reds vs lefties or the rangers. those excpetions are there because of the nature of the markets on those totals. see you still don't get it, when i bet a total it has nothing to do with how good or bad i think an offense is

strange you make this comment but still liked under?

I love the cards offense, i think they are beasts but guess what? The computers at pinnacle know about that too and so does the market. There is ZERO evidence that either pinnacle or the market is mispricing the cardinals offense. And if they aren't being mispriced, then its baked into the line correctly and completely irrelevant to which side to bet

I'm still wondering, at one point do you longer think the cards over was a bet. would you still bet it at 9.5? Also, do you believe that having the over 9 -105 last night(opening line) was profitable?