Mebaran's 2013 MLB Hangout

[italianbandit]

Nice hit on Cards. Don't spread yourself too thin with so many different bets, pick your best and bet more $$$.

[EXhoosier10]

Nice hit on Cards. Don't spread yourself too thin with so many different bets, pick your best and bet more $$$.

I've gone pretty wild the last few days and it's getting real annoying. I'm giong to start scaling back here soon before I lose a bunch of $$

[EXhoosier10]

Tomorro 4/24
Mil -121 ~ 0.3u

Will play Mil TTo3.5 or 4 tomorrow for 1u or so. Hopefully won't play much more as that's all i see tonight.

[italianbandit]

Take a look at some of the peripherals on Harrell for the Astros tomorrow.

[EXhoosier10]

Updated 4/23
Cin -1 -113 ~ .5u ~~~~~ -.565
Stl -104 ~ 2u ~~~~~ +2
KC +163 ~ 1u PPD
Col +107 ~ 1u ~~~~~ -1
Col FF +105 ~ .25u ~~~~~ -.25
Stl FF -108 ~ 1u ~~~~~ +1

2-3 +1.185

Adding
Mil -121 ~ 0.75u ~~~~~ +0.75
Mil TTo3.5 -125 ~ 0.5u ~~~~~ +0.5
Ari @ SF u6.5 -108 ~ 0.5u ~~~~~ -0.54

2-1 +0.71

Adding
Laa -102 ~ 0.5u

1-0 +0.5

4/23: 5-4 +2.395
YTD: 55-37-4 +12.8835u

I'm going to start keeping a breakdown of bets by unit size. In the past few years, 3+ unit plays have hit at ~ 58% and been pretty much the the key to any long term success. I won't include early season plays b/c no matter how strongly i felt, I didn't play for more than 1u early on.

[EXhoosier10]

Take a look at some of the peripherals on Harrell for the Astros tomorrow.

Last year he was fine, but looking at his runners on base #'s, he looks like a completely different pitcher from the stretch. 2013 walk rate is also a bit higher supported by a lower first pitch walk rate. Doesn't instill much confidence, but he's matching up against joe saunders, so SP is probably a toss up Houston hitters have the advantage and pitching is probably a toss up. throw in home field advantage and it looks like a solid bet

[EXhoosier10]

Adding:
Houston +106 ~ 0.75u
*Ari @ SF u7 -105 ~ 2u

*Really hoping Posey sits day game after night game. Probably would have been better to wait for lu's

4/24 update
Mil -121 ~ 0.3u
Hou +106 ~ 0.75u
Ari @ SF u7 -105 ~ 1.5u

Will play Mil TTo3.5 or 4 for 1u
Will play Hou -1 or -1.5 at either +150 or +200 for 0.25 - 0.5u

Was leaning yankees last night, but probably won't touch at a pick 'em

[EXhoosier10]

Get me out of here so i stop making plays!

Adding:
Chc FF +158 ~ 0.3u

4/24 update
Mil -121 ~ 0.3u
Hou +106 ~ 0.75u
Ari @ SF u7 -105 ~ 1.5u
Chc FF +158 ~ 0.3u

Will play Mil TTo3.5 or 4 for 1u when available
Will play Hou -1 or -1.5 at either +150 or +200 for 0.25 - 0.5u
Will play Chc FF +0.5 @ -130 or so for 0.7u when available

[No coincidences]

Adding:
Houston +106 ~ 0.75u
*Ari @ SF u7 -105 ~ 2u

*Really hoping Posey sits day game after night game. Probably would have been better to wait for lu's

4/24 update
Mil -121 ~ 0.3u
Hou +106 ~ 0.75u
Ari @ SF u7 -105 ~ 1.5u

Will play Mil TTo3.5 or 4 for 1u
Will play Hou -1 or -1.5 at either +150 or +200 for 0.25 - 0.5u

Was leaning yankees last night, but probably won't touch at a pick 'em

If you wait re: Posey, you'll pay the price as I'm sure the under will get juiced or it might even move to 6.5 with two "aces" on the bump. I highly doubt he's in the lineup, but you never know.

I like Houston as well. Give me a chance to fade Joe Saunders at + money and I'm all for it.

[EXhoosier10]

4/24 update
Mil -121 ~ 0.3u
Hou +106 ~ 0.75u
Hou -1 +144 ~ 0.5u
Ari @ SF u7 -105 ~ 1.5u
Chc FF +158 ~ 0.3u
Chc FF +.5 -105 ~ 0.7u


Will play Mil TTo3.5 or 4 for 1u when available

[italianbandit]

Take a look at some of the peripherals on Harrell for the Astros tomorrow.

Im on Houston for a a unit.

[No coincidences]

Im on Houston for a a unit.

I'm on it too, both FF and game. I'd go bigger, but hey, it's Houston.

Good luck IB.

[EXhoosier10]

Threat of Cubs game being postponed/delayed. media outlets say umps will have meeting at 11:15 to discuss

[italianbandit]

Thanks Coins. It's been a great start for all 3 of us. How did you finish last night?

Random Era - overachievers

Jake Westbrook; 1.25 ERA, 4.35 FIP


Carlos Villanueva; 1.53 ERA, 4.07 FIP



Matt Moore; 1.04 ERA, 3.67 FIP

[No coincidences]

Thanks Coins. It's been a great start for all 3 of us. How did you finish last night?

Random Era - overachievers

Jake Westbrook; 1.25 ERA, 4.35 FIP


Carlos Villanueva; 1.53 ERA, 4.07 FIP



Matt Moore; 1.04 ERA, 3.67 FIP

Great night last night.

I'd like your thoughts on LAD/NYM if you get the time. Same goes for Ex.

[EXhoosier10]

I'll give some feedback this afternoon. i'm going to try and get some work done for another couple of hours

[EXhoosier10]

*****Note to self*****
Heard something on the blue jays broadcast saying the game after throwing a knuckleballer , assuming the same opponent, opposing teams struggle and the previous day knuckleball throwing team wins more often than not. The announcer said "... and the numbers back this up..." but didn't give those numbers out.

[italianbandit]

Don't have anything Coin, need to see Lilly pitch -haven't followed his recovery.

[EXhoosier10]

Great night last night.

I'd like your thoughts on LAD/NYM if you get the time. Same goes for Ex.

Mets bats are bottom 5 wOBA over L5 games -- BA of .211, OBP .280. Dodgers top 5 wOBA, .390 OBP. I don't put too much weight into L5 stats, but it's there.

DOdgers have the better lineup, especially with Sellers not playing.

Bullpens are all available.

I really have no read on Lilly except that he's a FB pitcher. Citi is bottom 5 stadium at 8% below average at giving up HR to RHB, only 3% v LHB. 13 ER in 17 IP in A+ and AAA for Lilly pretty much makes him untouchable IMO.

if Lilly was in midseason from, I probably play dodgers. Not touching him after those ML starts. I wouldn't even touch LAD TTo3 at +105. Harvey has been lights out and while dodgers might be veteran enough to be able to hit rookies after just having a few games of film to watch, but who knows. Really no leans on anything for this game as every off/def stat contradicts eachother

[EXhoosier10]

Adding:
Pit +110 ~ 0.5u

Pittsburgh has the better offense in this matchup + i get to fade Doc. I can't pass this up at + odds with Wandy being a capable SP

[No coincidences]

Mets bats are bottom 5 wOBA over L5 games -- BA of .211, OBP .280. Dodgers top 5 wOBA, .390 OBP. I don't put too much weight into L5 stats, but it's there.

DOdgers have the better lineup, especially with Sellers not playing.

Bullpens are all available.

I really have no read on Lilly except that he's a FB pitcher. Citi is bottom 5 stadium at 8% below average at giving up HR to RHB, only 3% v LHB. 13 ER in 17 IP in A+ and AAA for Lilly pretty much makes him untouchable IMO.

if Lilly was in midseason from, I probably play dodgers. Not touching him after those ML starts. I wouldn't even touch LAD TTo3 at +105. Harvey has been lights out and while dodgers might be veteran enough to be able to hit rookies after just having a few games of film to watch, but who knows. Really no leans on anything for this game as every off/def stat contradicts eachother

I'm on LAD for a unit. As I said in my thread, it's a principle bet more than anything else; I love Harvey, and he's carrying my fantasy team right now, but that price is absurd. I won't read too much into Lilly's minor league stats; he's a veteran and knows what he does/doesn't need to work on. He wouldn't come back unless he's ready. I don't exactly expecting him to twirl a gem, but against that Mets' lineup, he doesn't have to be at his best necessarily.

Thanks for the input.

[No coincidences]

Adding:
Pit +110 ~ 0.5u

Pittsburgh has the better offense in this matchup + i get to fade Doc. I can't pass this up at + odds with Wandy being a capable SP

Good luck. I bet PIT with Wandy last time out and feel like I was playing with fire. Wandy's a capable veteran, but a serious correction is coming and the Philly lineup is beyond due. I don't blame you for wanting to fade Halladay right now, though. I'll pass on that one. Good luck.

[EXhoosier10]

4/24 Finals
Hou +106 ~ 0.75u ~~~~~ +0.795
Hou -1 +144 ~ 0.5u ~~~~~ +0.72
Ari @ SF u7 -105 ~ 1.5u ~~~~~ + 1.5
Chc FF +158 ~ 0.3u ~~~~~~ PUSH
Chc FF +.5 -105 ~ 0.7u ~~~~~~ +0.7
Pit +110 ~ 0.5u
5-0-1 +4.265u


4/24 Pending
Mil -121 ~ 0.3u

[No coincidences]

Have to give credit to Halladay for showing up tonight.

[Smutbucket]

really good stuff in this thread exhoosier, thanks for posting

[EXhoosier10]

Have to give credit to Halladay for showing up tonight.

I don't think Halladay will be as good as he was in the past, but he's good enough to succeed still. Why the Phills brought in a nobody pitcher in a tie game is beyond me, but i'll take it.

[EXhoosier10]

4/25
Mets bats continue to struggle to put up runs, no reason to think it stops against this lefty. Hefner has now had 3 straight bad starts. I don't see any reason this line moves to a better number tomorrow morning. Due to extra innings today and since i'm going to bed and won't be able to watch, i'm going to save 0.5u to either add on in the morning or use FF
Lad -115 ~ 1.75u

Also taking the yankees in a rematch of saturday's game. Hitters usually ahve the advantage when pitchers face the same team, and yankees are the better hitters and have historically hit Buehrle well.
Nyy -140 ~ 1.5u

[italianbandit]

Love the Dodgers tomorrow. Trying to figure out how much to bet. Nice day again EX, keep rolling. Working on tomorrow now.

Random stat: Chris Sale FF only?

[EXhoosier10]

Love the Dodgers tomorrow. Trying to figure out how much to bet. Nice day again EX, keep rolling. Working on tomorrow now.

Random stat: Chris Sale FF only?

Thanks again. Wish I'd been betting bigger units so far, but compared to last year being down 30sone units in mid may, I like where I'm at. With regards to sale, I'll take a look in The Book for exact numbers, but at a glance, those look like pretty normal #'s for any SP. each time through the order they get progressively worse. It's weird how his SO/BB goes up along with his OPS though. I would imagine the former should go down with a rise in OPS.

[EXhoosier10]

Here's lg avg numbers from 1999-2002 taken from The Book. I guess it's somewhat outdated, but the trends i imagine would still be applicable today. Each time through the order takes about 30-35 pitches, on average.


So it looks like Sale is elite first time or two through the order and average 2h of his starts. I wonder how much that has to do with that being his first season as a starter and not fully grasping how well hitters adjust through a game. Do you mind me asking where you got this data? I wouldn't mind looking through more of it when I get the chance

[EXhoosier10]

4/24 Finals
Hou +106 ~ 0.75u ~~~~~ +0.795
Hou -1 +144 ~ 0.5u ~~~~~ +0.72
Ari @ SF u7 -105 ~ 1.5u ~~~~~ + 1.5
Chc FF +158 ~ 0.3u ~~~~~~ PUSH
Chc FF +.5 -105 ~ 0.7u ~~~~~~ +0.7
Pit +110 ~ 0.5u
5-0-1 +4.265u


4/24 Pending
Mil -121 ~ 0.3u

4/24: 5-1-1 +3.902u
YTD: 55-34-5 +16.7855u

[No coincidences]

I'm looking at a big play on Tampa tonight fellas. Any thoughts would be appreciated.

[EXhoosier10]

I'm looking at a big play on Tampa tonight fellas. Any thoughts would be appreciated.

Do pitchers have sophomore slumps? I've only ever thought of it for hitters.

[No coincidences]

Do pitchers have sophomore slumps? I've only ever thought of it for hitters.

Depends on their increased work load. Sale's IP shot up last year. I think that catches up to him soon.

I think sophomore slumps in sports are basically about the league scouting you better and knowing your trends and weaknesses. Combine that with his style of pitching and his 'new' role as a starter last year, and I think he's going to hit a wall.

[EXhoosier10]

Depends on their increased work load. Sale's IP shot up last year. I think that catches up to him soon.

There was an article this offseason arguing Verducci effect that concluded #'s don't back it up, however i don't recall what exactly it found. I think they were focused on injury rate and the conclusion was as stated, but I'll have to see if they looked at effectiveness. I don't think there are too many pitchers who shoot up by 100+ though, so this is probably a whole different case. I think i have L3 year IP totals for pitchers somewhere on my computer, 30 IP --> 70 --> 190 has got to be the biggest jump in 2 seasons when factoring in minor league innings as well