Mebaran's 2013 MLB Hangout

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • EXhoosier10
    SBR MVP
    • 07-06-09
    • 3122

    #281
    Originally posted by EXhoosier10
    Beginning of the card
    4/22:
    Stl -102 ~ 0.5u
    Chc +154 ~ 0.3u

    WIll play cubs FF as well for 0.5u when that comes out
    4/22:
    Stl -102 ~ 0.5u
    Stl -107 ~ 0.3u
    Chc +154 ~ 0.3u
    Chc FF +143 ~0.7u

    Failed miserably at reading the boston line and am passing at -120. should it get back down to -110, i'll play it for 0.5u. I'm not sure how to read a team coming off a DH
    Comment
    • italianbandit
      SBR MVP
      • 05-17-11
      • 2622

      #282
      Cards bullpen is a bit volatile right now.
      Comment
      • EXhoosier10
        SBR MVP
        • 07-06-09
        • 3122

        #283
        Originally posted by italianbandit
        Cards bullpen is a bit volatile right now.
        After looking at stats, Boggs& Salas are the only two I'm worreid about. Boggs won't pitch today, Salas could.

        Cards 'pen has a .350 BABIP, 20% LD% (lg avg ~20.5), 11.8% HR/FB rate coupled with a 32% FB rate. Those all scream average while being above avg at getting GB's. That BABIP will hover around .285 RoS should things stay the same; they've been getting really unlucky
        Comment
        • No coincidences
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 01-18-10
          • 76300

          #284
          Originally posted by EXhoosier10
          After looking at stats, Boggs& Salas are the only two I'm worreid about. Boggs won't pitch today, Salas could.

          Cards 'pen has a .350 BABIP, 20% LD% (lg avg ~20.5), 11.8% HR/FB rate coupled with a 32% FB rate. Those all scream average while being above avg at getting GB's. That BABIP will hover around .285 RoS should things stay the same; they've been getting really unlucky
          Alphabet soup isn't much better.

          Boggs needs to be in Triple-A.
          Comment
          • EXhoosier10
            SBR MVP
            • 07-06-09
            • 3122

            #285
            Originally posted by No coincidences
            Alphabet soup isn't much better.

            Boggs needs to be in Triple-A.
            Thought you were talking about all thsoe different stats at first. Zep (idon't even know where to begin when trying to spell that name) looks like he has been right in line with previous years (slightly better, actually. 2 walks vs 35 batters faced is a better ratio than verlander had last year). His line drive rate is 12% and has a .400 BABIP. over a full season, a 12% LD rate should be like a .260 babip. All this to say that i'm not really worried; his peripherals look great and he has a history of non-failure.

            Boggs and Salas look to have velocity issues to compound their poor performance. they're at least worth watching before i say they'll go back to being trustworthy
            Comment
            • No coincidences
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 01-18-10
              • 76300

              #286
              Originally posted by EXhoosier10
              Thought you were talking about all thsoe different stats at first. Zep (idon't even know where to begin when trying to spell that name) looks like he has been right in line with previous years (slightly better, actually. 2 walks vs 35 batters faced is a better ratio than verlander had last year). His line drive rate is 12% and has a .400 BABIP. over a full season, a 12% LD rate should be like a .260 babip. All this to say that i'm not really worried; his peripherals look great and he has a history of non-failure.

              Boggs and Salas look to have velocity issues to compound their poor performance. they're at least worth watching before i say they'll go back to being trustworthy
              For as good as Rzepczynski was during their WS run, I've been far less than impressed with him during the regular season over the course of his career. I haven't looked much into his advanced stats -- just going by the eye test (I see quite a few StL games).

              Boggs and Salas are toast, and Rzep is far from reliable. Mix that with Shelby Miller being a rookie and on a relatively short leash and Matheny being borderline dunce material at times with the way he handles this ballclub, and I'm just worried about their chances tonight in Washington. I'm normally all for fading Haren -- he's a bum in my book -- but this game worries me. I hope you've got it pegged. Have no idea why the books love the under so much.
              Comment
              • EXhoosier10
                SBR MVP
                • 07-06-09
                • 3122

                #287
                Anyway, anyone flummoxed by the Colorado and White Sox lines? I'm tempted to parlay the two dogs at +300. Playing them both and hoping for a split at +105/+110 isn't really worth it IMO.

                Minor was -180 at home his last start against KC. Colorado bats are better than KC's, but wade davis is better than jeff francis. Line seems kind of fishy.

                Indians and ChiSox same thing. Axelrod is AAA guy and Masterson should be riding high. WHy is the line a pick 'em? Sox don't hit Masterson extremely well or anything... -110 screams trap to me
                Comment
                • italianbandit
                  SBR MVP
                  • 05-17-11
                  • 2622

                  #288
                  Ha, thats what i thought he meant as well. I guess I should have said volatility in terms of roles in the bullpen.
                  Comment
                  • No coincidences
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 01-18-10
                    • 76300

                    #289
                    Originally posted by EXhoosier10
                    Anyway, anyone flummoxed by the Colorado and White Sox lines? I'm tempted to parlay the two dogs at +300. Playing them both and hoping for a split at +105/+110 isn't really worth it IMO.

                    Minor was -180 at home his last start against KC. Colorado bats are better than KC's, but wade davis is better than jeff francis. Line seems kind of fishy.

                    Indians and ChiSox same thing. Axelrod is AAA guy and Masterson should be riding high. WHy is the line a pick 'em? Sox don't hit Masterson extremely well or anything... -110 screams trap to me
                    I like Colorado, despite Francis being Francis. Not sure what to think re: CLE/CHW. You're right: line screams White Sox or no play, but I can't back that team in good conscience right now given Dunn is an absolute black hole at the plate. Hard to get a good read on which Masterson shows up on a given night as well; he's either great or awful.
                    Comment
                    • No coincidences
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 01-18-10
                      • 76300

                      #290
                      Originally posted by italianbandit
                      Ha, thats what i thought he meant as well. I guess I should have said volatility in terms of roles in the bullpen.
                      The more I watch the Cards, the more I wonder what goes through Matheny's head.
                      Comment
                      • EXhoosier10
                        SBR MVP
                        • 07-06-09
                        • 3122

                        #291
                        Originally posted by No coincidences
                        I like Colorado, despite Francis being Francis. Not sure what to think re: CLE/CHW. You're right: line screams White Sox or no play, but I can't back that team in good conscience right now given Dunn is an absolute black hole at the plate. Hard to get a good read on which Masterson shows up on a given night as well; he's either great or awful.
                        Dunn has actually seen Masterson pretty well wtih only 7 K's in 33 PA's (.22 K% compared to his normal .35). I like minor, but he's only pitched in coors once and gave up 8 runs in 4 or 5 innings. My buddy has been pressing me to do parlays, so i might play this one at +330. I think it has a better chance of hitting than last night's Ben Revere no hits prop at +195. Might just go wild and throw Toronto in it as well. I could use a good 8unit swing right now
                        Comment
                        • No coincidences
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 01-18-10
                          • 76300

                          #292
                          Originally posted by EXhoosier10
                          Dunn has actually seen Masterson pretty well wtih only 7 K's in 33 PA's (.22 K% compared to his normal .35). I like minor, but he's only pitched in coors once and gave up 8 runs in 4 or 5 innings. My buddy has been pressing me to do parlays, so i might play this one at +330. I think it has a better chance of hitting than last night's Ben Revere no hits prop at +195. Might just go wild and throw Toronto in it as well. I could use a good 8unit swing right now
                          I'm not feeling Toronto as much as I was earlier, but if you see an angle, take it.

                          Dunn isn't seeing anything well right now. He's hitting like he's blindfolded.

                          Let's keep our fingers crossed and our balls covered re: Colorado and Francis if you play them. I took them for a unit.

                          I actually took Houston as well. Seems crazy on paper, but Felix is ridiculously overpriced given the M's just aren't that good right now.
                          Comment
                          • EXhoosier10
                            SBR MVP
                            • 07-06-09
                            • 3122

                            #293
                            So much for these parlays. Now i'm just banking on the whitesox to win... wtf
                            Comment
                            • italianbandit
                              SBR MVP
                              • 05-17-11
                              • 2622

                              #294
                              Good luck EX, I trailed on Cubs and rooting for Cards to win for you. Will continue to bring good luck.
                              Comment
                              • EXhoosier10
                                SBR MVP
                                • 07-06-09
                                • 3122

                                #295
                                thanks IB. Lets keep this thing rollin'. These player props have gotten out of control and i have 5u spread out over 10 or so of these H+R+RBI bets. I need to cut down on these things before I bury myself
                                Comment
                                • italianbandit
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 05-17-11
                                  • 2622

                                  #296
                                  Nice hit on Cubs FF, props are great bets, but there is only so much time in a day. Of course the Cards game is a bullpen game, I hope they shut them down. Really tried a way to fade Sabathia tonight, but couldn't find a number I liked.
                                  Comment
                                  • italianbandit
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 05-17-11
                                    • 2622

                                    #297
                                    Comment
                                    • EXhoosier10
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 07-06-09
                                      • 3122

                                      #298
                                      Originally posted by italianbandit
                                      Nice hit on Cubs FF, props are great bets, but there is only so much time in a day. Of course the Cards game is a bullpen game, I hope they shut them down. Really tried a way to fade Sabathia tonight, but couldn't find a number I liked.
                                      Thanks buddy. We've been rolling pretty hot lately when we combine on a play. I was in the same situation on TB. THought I played them at -115 or so this morning but got home tonight to check my bets and didnt' ahve anything pending. Wasn't going to play that or Boston after missing 10-15 cents.

                                      ANy thoughts on tomorrow's card? I think i'm definitely going to play the Cards for > 1u and i'll probably back Kershaw as well for .5 - 1u
                                      Comment
                                      • EXhoosier10
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 07-06-09
                                        • 3122

                                        #299
                                        Booking these over night
                                        Cin -1 -113 ~ .5u
                                        Will add FF tomorrow for 1u. Bullpens should both be worn down and I don't want to deal with that
                                        Stl -104 ~ 2u

                                        My thinking on stl is that wainwright will never be a dog against detwiler when he's healthy, so the line can't get much better; might as well book now. At least I know trap lines can get beat as seen with Cleveland today
                                        Comment
                                        • italianbandit
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 05-17-11
                                          • 2622

                                          #300
                                          Cubs full game result was ugly. Good bet sizing. Vogelsong result was perfect, I cashed a small FF (on my fade Vogelsong line) bet and the Giants won, perhaps keeping his demise a bit tampered in his standard stats. Gonna look at this games peripherals to see if I see further regression.

                                          I like LAD with you. .5 unit at -1. Also like Cingrani, but prefer FF.

                                          It appears Pujols 0-5 tonight (I mentioned in another thread before the game) is in a plantarfascitis flairup and the team is thinking of puting him on the 15 day DL, I can see a few more bad games from him, might be worth it to bet some prop on this.

                                          I think the Brewers will continue their hot hitting against C Richard, will take a look at their TT over tomorrow.

                                          The double headers throw things for a loop as lineups and bullpens will be scattered. I liked the Rockies to score a bit off of Teheran maybe a TT over. I also want to fade Pelfrey and may do a TT over in Miami in Game 2.

                                          Also want to see Texas' TT at my book, I think they continue their good hitting trend off of Vargas.

                                          Oakland +112 might be a good buy.
                                          Comment
                                          • EXhoosier10
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 07-06-09
                                            • 3122

                                            #301
                                            Originally posted by EXhoosier10
                                            4/22:
                                            Stl -102 ~ 0.5u
                                            Stl -107 ~ 0.3u
                                            Chc FF +143 ~0.7u
                                            Chc +154 ~ 0.3u ~~~~~ kill me
                                            4/22: 3-1 +1.51u
                                            YTD: 50-33-4 +10.4885u
                                            Comment
                                            • No coincidences
                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                              • 01-18-10
                                              • 76300

                                              #302
                                              Originally posted by EXhoosier10
                                              4/22: 3-1 +1.51u
                                              YTD: 50-33-4 +10.4885u
                                              Nice work, Ex.

                                              I like Oakland, IB.
                                              Comment
                                              • EXhoosier10
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 07-06-09
                                                • 3122

                                                #303
                                                Updated 4/23
                                                Cin -1 -113 ~ .5u
                                                Stl -104 ~ 2u

                                                KC +163 ~ 1u
                                                Col +107 ~ 1u
                                                Col FF +105 ~ .25u
                                                Comment
                                                • No coincidences
                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                  • 01-18-10
                                                  • 76300

                                                  #304
                                                  Originally posted by EXhoosier10
                                                  Updated 4/23
                                                  Cin -1 -113 ~ .5u
                                                  Stl -104 ~ 2u

                                                  KC +163 ~ 1u
                                                  Col +107 ~ 1u
                                                  Col FF +105 ~ .25u
                                                  I'll take Colorado if the lineups are what I'm anticipating.

                                                  KC +163 is a joke. It may not cash, but the Tigers are so overpriced here it's not even funny.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • EXhoosier10
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 07-06-09
                                                    • 3122

                                                    #305
                                                    Originally posted by EXhoosier10
                                                    Updated 4/23
                                                    Cin -1 -113 ~ .5u
                                                    Stl -104 ~ 2u
                                                    KC +163 ~ 1u
                                                    Col +107 ~ 1u
                                                    Col FF +105 ~ .25u
                                                    Updated 4/23
                                                    Cin -1 -113 ~ .5u
                                                    Stl -104 ~ 2u
                                                    KC +163 ~ 1u
                                                    Col +107 ~ 1u
                                                    Col FF +105 ~ .25u

                                                    Stl FF -108 ~ 1u
                                                    Comment
                                                    • italianbandit
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 05-17-11
                                                      • 2622

                                                      #306
                                                      Miami +125 FF, 1 unit.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • italianbandit
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 05-17-11
                                                        • 2622

                                                        #307
                                                        Also 1 unit Mil over 3.5 -125, bought in morning.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • EXhoosier10
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 07-06-09
                                                          • 3122

                                                          #308
                                                          Adding
                                                          Mil -121 ~ 0.75u
                                                          Mil TTo3.5 -125 ~ 0.5u
                                                          Ari @ SF u6.5 -108 ~ 0.5u
                                                          Comment
                                                          • EXhoosier10
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 07-06-09
                                                            • 3122

                                                            #309
                                                            Adding
                                                            Laa -102 ~ 0.5u
                                                            Comment
                                                            • EXhoosier10
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 07-06-09
                                                              • 3122

                                                              #310
                                                              Originally posted by italianbandit
                                                              Miami +125 FF, 1 unit.
                                                              Nice start italian. I completely forgot what you sent me about Pelfrey. These doubleheaders are throwing my spreadsheet for a loop. Trying to do fanduel, player props, and last second ML bets all right as game times roll around and its impossible to get everythign in. Might bail on player props here soon as they're just so time consuming checking 40 different players + pitchers
                                                              Comment
                                                              • No coincidences
                                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                                • 01-18-10
                                                                • 76300

                                                                #311
                                                                Originally posted by EXhoosier10
                                                                Adding
                                                                Mil -121 ~ 0.75u
                                                                Mil TTo3.5 -125 ~ 0.5u
                                                                Ari @ SF u6.5 -108 ~ 0.5u
                                                                I'm tailing you on this. I've been staring at it all day.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • EXhoosier10
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 07-06-09
                                                                  • 3122

                                                                  #312
                                                                  Carlos Marmol, you are a beautiful man!
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • No coincidences
                                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                                    • 01-18-10
                                                                    • 76300

                                                                    #313
                                                                    Originally posted by EXhoosier10
                                                                    Carlos Marmol, you are a beautiful man!
                                                                    Incredible.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • italianbandit
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 05-17-11
                                                                      • 2622

                                                                      #314
                                                                      Don't like Angels here. But am laying off Texas TT over... I can't see Brewers winning in a low scoring game, so TT over is my favorite bet. Fences are closer in SD.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • EXhoosier10
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 07-06-09
                                                                        • 3122

                                                                        #315
                                                                        Originally posted by italianbandit
                                                                        Don't like Angels here. But am laying off Texas TT over... I can't see Brewers winning in a low scoring game, so TT over is my favorite bet. Fences are closer in SD.
                                                                        I'm tailing fishhead here. I agree wtih you on playing Texas TTover. I'm cheering for a big night from Cruz + Kinsler!
                                                                        Comment
                                                                        SBR Contests
                                                                        Collapse
                                                                        Top-Rated US Sportsbooks
                                                                        Collapse
                                                                        Working...