Expected Starting Pitchers:
*both starting pitchers must start for this to be an official bet*
St. Louis Cardinals: Jaime Garcia (4-0, 1.99 ERA)
Chicago Cubs: Casey Coleman (1-2, 6.29 ERA)
Public Betting Percentage: 62% of the public is on St. Louis; 32% of the public is on Chicago
My Ranking: St. Louis has a 65.86% chance of winning; Chicago has a 34.14% chance of winning.
Jaime Garcia (4-0) gets the start for the (21-16) St. Louis Cardinals today at the world famous Wrigley Field, to take on Casey Coleman (1-2) and the (16-19) Chicago Cubs. This is game three of three between these teams, this series; both teams have a win with STL winning game one 6-4 and Chicago winning yesterday 11-4. The Cardinals are 11-7 on the road this season while Chicago is 8-11 at home.
Left-handed Garcia, when his command is right, is one of the best pitchers in the Major leagues. This is his 8th start of the year, but he is off to a great start with an ERA of 1.99, WHIP of 0.97 and BAA of .205; incredible numbers. In day games (two), he has an ERA of 1.80, WHIP of 0.80 and BAA of .180. He already has pitched two complete games, his first start of the season and his most recent start, allowing just six hits, three walks, and zero runs in 18 innings of work. He has yet to allow an opponent to score more than three runs in a game and has yet to walk more than two batters in a game. In four of his 7 games he's allowed opponents to score just one run or less. In 45 innings of work he has struck out 44 batters, allowing just 11 walks and 33 hits - that means he strikes out as many batters as he allows getting on base. Solid all around pitcher and when he is on the top of his game he is lights out.
Coleman on the other hand, is making his 6th start tonight with a season ERA of 6.29, WHIP of 1.77 and BAA of .281. At Wrigley field he's been even worse, through two starts, with an ERA of 8.31, WHIP of 1.96 and BAA of 2.86. His one quality start was at night, but in day games (four) he has an ERA of 7.71, WHIP of 1.93 and BAA of .303; allowing 23 hits, 13 walks and 16 runs in just 18 innings of work. He has only last six innings of work in one game (exactly 6 innings), allowing 4+ runs in three of his five starts. Coleman is a mess, his pitching mechanics are off his delivery has been delayed and I think these St. Louis bats will pounce all over him in the windy city today.
St. Louis' offense is batting an overall .278 this season, .305 on the road and .247 in their last ten games. Chicago's offense is batting an overall .272 this season, .276 at home and .278 in their last ten games. St. Louis numbers improve against right handed pitchers, batting an overall .283, .324 on the road and .246 in their last ten. Chicago's numbers versus lefties also improves their average, but they have had very little action versus them this season, batting .290 overall, .272 at home and .315 in their last ten. St. Louis offense has scored 6+ runs in 7 of their last ten games while Chicagos offense has only scored 6+ runs in one of their last ten games; last night's 11-4 win over STL. Both teams will be missing two key players today, which cancel each other out; with St. Louis likely resting Lance Berkman and a recently injured Ryan Theriot while Chicago will be without their main star, ARAM, Amaris Ramirez (personal reasons) and Geovany Soto (recent groin injury).
Both bullpens have been decent this season as far ERA goes, with St. Louis having an edge. The Cardinals bullpen has an ERA of 3.04 and WHIP of 1.33, compared to the Cubs bullpen ERA of 3.72 and WHIP of 1.43. St. Louis bullpen was taxed for seven innings of work yesterday as Jake Westbrook gave up 5 runs in the first two innings, but since this game was pretty much out of reach from the beginning St. Louis used up a majority of their bullpens scrub players. Now, if you look at the bullpens numbers for St. Louis, of players who are eligible to play tonight their ERA is a solid 2.08 and WHP of 1.23.
PittVipers Final Prediction
This game comes down to two pitchers, one solid - one not, and will make all the difference in this game. I expect Coleman to be removed before the 6thinning and for St. Louis to add a couple more runs against Chicago's bullpen on route to a 7-2 win.
Expected Starting Pitchers:
*both starting pitchers must start for this to be an official bet*
Arizona Diamondbacks: Daniel Hudson (3-4, 4.47 ERA)
San Francisco Giants: Matt Cain (2-2, 3.38 ERA)
Public Betting Percentage: 51% of the public is on Arizona; 49% of the public is on San Frnacisco
My Ranking: Arizona has a 49.47% chance of winning; San Francisco has a 50.53% chance of winning.
Daniel Hudson (3-4) gets the start tonight for the (15-20) Arizona Diamondbacks at the defending World Series Giants (20-16) San Francisco Giants AT&T Park this afternoon, who start Matt Cain (2-2). This is game three, of a three game series, between these two ball clubs in which San Francisco has one the first two meetings 1-0 and 4-3. It is interesting to note that while Arizona is 4-6 in their past ten game and San Francisco is 7-3, four of Arizona's six losses have been by just one run and four of San Francisco's seven wins have been by just one run. Despite San Francisco's stellar pitchers and World Series last season, one would not be crazy to say that Arizona has better hitting, power, speed and defense than this San Francisco team; Arizona's pitching is just nothing in comparison (as they only have two solid pitchers Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson).
Daniel Hudson this season - for Arizona - has an ERA of 4.47, WHIP of 1.26 and BAA of .256; all pretty decent numbers besides the ERA. His control was a bit shaky in the first four games of the season giving up 12 walks (an average of three per game) but has been solid since, giving up only 1 walk over his last three starts; recording a win in all three games, with an ERA of 2.70 and WHIP of 1.20. On the road Hudson has a WHIP of 1.20 a BAA of .235 but an ERA of 4.91. His ERA this season is very deceptive and not a reflection of how good Hudson is, who has a career ERA of 3.13, WHIP of 1.11 and BAA of .220. Last season he had an ERA of 2.45, a WHIP of 1.00 and BAA of .202 (amazing numbers) and since those first four games of the season Hudson has appeared to turn the curve and return to the form he was at last year.
Matt Cain gets the start for the Giants, sporting an ERA of 3.38, a WHIP of 1.2 and BAA of .244; he's no slouch either. Before I say anything more, I'd like to make this next point very clear as it is something that attracted me to this game: Giants catch Buster Posey will get the night off to rest, after being struck in the head with two straight foul balls in the late innings of last night game (coach says he is fine, it is just precautionary). Now what this means to San Francisco isn't just lowered offensive production in tonight's game but more importantly defensive production. You could say the pitcher is Batman and the catcher is Robin, as they are both essential keys to each other's success. If the communication is just a little off, not only does this frustrate the catcher but effects how they work batters and strategize. This should have an effect on today's game; especially because this is an afternoon game after a night game so the Pitcher-Catcher haven't much time to practice together or strategize for today's game. Matt Cain is very solid though, only giving up 2 runs or more in 7 starts this season. During day games however (three), he has an ERA of 4.32, WHIP of 1.56 and BAA of .309. The humidity of the afternoon has some effect on his style of pitching, the ball just carries further.
Arizona gets the slight edge on offense. The Diamondbacks are batting an overall .238 this season, .225 on the road and .206 in their last ten. The Giants are batting .232 this season, .236 at home and .219 in their last ten. Both teams are batting about the same versus right handed pitchers. Similar to the Blue Jays, this Arizona team gets most of their production from speed, smart base-running and a few heavy hitters; they are averaging 4.49 runs per game compared to San Francisco's 3.47. Though it is a small sample size of 55 innings pitched, Daniel Hudson has performed very well versus the Giants in his three season career, to date: he has held the Giants batters to a combined BAA of .167. Another note to mention is that not only will catcher Buster Posey be out today, their top offensive player Pablo Santoval has been sidelined with injury the past ten games. The Giants have only been able to average 2.8 runs of offense per game since his injury.
Both bullpens are sold. Arizonas bullpen ERA is 2.88 and WHIP is 1.27, while San Francisco's bullpen ERA is 2.72 and WHIP is 1.08. Arizonas bullpen has been lights out though since a shaky start: in the last eight games, over 26 innings of relief work, they've pitched a combined ERA of 0.35 and WHIP of 0.86 (GIVING UP JUST ONE RUN).
Key Matchups
Stephen Drew (ARI) vs Matt Cain (SF) -- 10-for-29 (.345), 3 HR, 7 RBI
PittVipers Final Prediction
This likely won't be an exciting game to watch, unless you love the art of pitching like me, but without Posey calling the shots behind the plate and San Francisco missing two of their top four run producers on offense - I expect another solid performance from the already solid Hudson and a 5-2 Arizona win.
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