1. #1
    Fair
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    Fair MLB System 2011

    This is a system i've used last year and i've backtested for the 2009 too. Last year this system went 93-0 and in the 2009 was undefeated too. This is clearly a chase system, a 3 game chase system. I don't like to chase and i never use the chase system for other sports; but i think that baseball is perfect for a 3 game chase but you have to know what you are doing!
    So basically this system is based on recent form, particularly i will back a team that is playing well at home and fading a team that is playing bad on the road. I apply also some common sens filter like avoid to bet on a poor team even if they are playing well recently. It is very important that the system have to start the first week of may and ends the last week of august. Last year there were 3 system losses in september, so i will stop to play at the end of august. I am pretty sure that doesn't exist a perfect and unbeatable system, so i would not be surprised if I will lose a couple of system series. Last year i' ve gone 7 times to C bet (all wons). So even with a 2 or 3 losses i will be able to gain a decent profit, especially because i will avoid to bet high juice. So the system start today

  2. #2
    Fair
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    5/6 Today's plays

    Washington @ Florida = Florida [A bet]
    Milwaukee @ St. Louis = St. Louis [A bet]

  3. #3
    Fair
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    5/7 Today's plays

    Quote Originally Posted by Fair View Post
    Washington @ Florida = Florida [A bet] LOSE
    Milwaukee @ St. Louis = St. Louis [A bet] WIN

    Washington @ Florida = Florida [B bet]

  4. #4
    Fair
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    5/8 Today's plays

    Quote Originally Posted by Fair View Post
    Washington @ Florida = Florida [B bet] LOST

    Washington @ Florida = Florida [C bet]

  5. #5
    Grinder12000
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    Sure hope FLO wins today for your sanity!! Posting picks is normally for any a kiss of doom for ANY system.

    The question is what are you usign for parameters - define bad and good.

    Plus - one thing I never understand is how do you cope with the moneylines in baseball. For instance = you bet to WIN a -155 team and lose - how much do you bet in game two at -125 since you have to make up the 1.55 units from the previous game. In game 2 do you wager (1.55+1.25 = 2.8) 2.8 units?

  6. #6
    Fair
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grinder12000 View Post
    Sure hope FLO wins today for your sanity!! Posting picks is normally for any a kiss of doom for ANY system.

    The question is what are you usign for parameters - define bad and good.

    Plus - one thing I never understand is how do you cope with the moneylines in baseball. For instance = you bet to WIN a -155 team and lose - how much do you bet in game two at -125 since you have to make up the 1.55 units from the previous game. In game 2 do you wager (1.55+1.25 = 2.8) 2.8 units?
    Basically i define a good form team after a home sweep and a bad form team after been swept on the road.
    For money management... i alway bet to win 1 unit for every single series. If i lose A bet, i take the loss and i add 1 unit for the B bet. For C bet i do the same; i take A + B losses and i add 1 unit to win. Clearly depends on the moneylines, but i think it's pretty easy to calculate the amount to play.

    Ah well, easy win for the Marlins today... fortunately!
    Not a perfect start but a win is always a win

  7. #7
    zeusky
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    Interesting stuff. Will keep an eye on this. GL bro.

  8. #8
    Fair
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fair View Post
    Washington @ Florida = Florida [C bet] WIN
    Quote Originally Posted by zeusky View Post
    Interesting stuff. Will keep an eye on this. GL bro.
    Thanks zeusky. Today no plays; i'll be back tomorrow with a couple of plays. Here's the updated record:


    System record: 2-0

    A bet: 1-1
    B bet: 0-1
    C bet: 1-0
    Last edited by Fair; 05-09-11 at 07:48 AM.

  9. #9
    Fair
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    5/10 Today's plays

    Kansas City @ NY Yankees = NY Yankees -1,5 [A bet]
    Washington @ Atlanta = Atlanta -1,5 [A bet]
    Arizona @ San Francisco = San Francisco -1,5 [A bet]





    System record: 2-0

    A bet: 1-1
    B bet: 0-1
    C bet: 1-0

  10. #10
    wade1
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    With this system you have to win at least 9 of 10 to come out ahead. All it takes is a couple 3 game losses in row and your in trouble. Will wipe out all your wins. Been there done that

  11. #11
    wade1
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    What if your c bet is -230 OUCH

  12. #12
    wade1
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    Anyway, Good Luck

  13. #13
    Fair
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    Thanks wade for the advices, anyway when the odds are higher than -180 i will play the run line to prevent big losses. For example tonight i will play the braves at -1.5 while the giants moneyline.

  14. #14
    Fair
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    5/11 Today's plays

    Quote Originally Posted by Fair View Post
    Kansas City @ NY Yankees = NY Yankees -1,5 [A bet] WIN
    Washington @ Atlanta = Atlanta -1,5 [A bet] LOST
    Arizona @ San Francisco = San Francisco -1,5 [A bet] LOST

    Washington @ Atlanta = Atlanta -1,5 [B bet]
    Arizona @ San Francisco = San Francisco [B bet]

  15. #15
    Fair
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    5/12 Today's plays

    Quote Originally Posted by Fair View Post
    Washington @ Atlanta = Atlanta -1,5 [B bet] LOST
    Arizona @ San Francisco = San Francisco [B bet] WIN

    *Washington @ Atlanta = Atlanta -1 [C bet]




    * I decided to play this C bet at -1 because moneyline -180 is a high juice and i can risk a big loss. So if Atlanta will win by 1 run i will lose only A+B bet (around 3 units).


    [sorry for the double post ]

  16. #16
    Fair
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fair View Post
    *Washington @ Atlanta = Atlanta -1 [C bet] PUSH

    I consider this series as a half loss, because i've only lost A and B bet with low odds, so the total loss is 2,65 units. Not a good thing, but neither a tragedy. With 4 wins i'm still up

  17. #17
    Fair
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    5/13 Today's plays

    Kansas City @ Detroit = Detroit -1 [A bet]
    Arizona @ LA Dodgers = La Dodgers -1 [A bet]
    Seattle @ Cleveland = Cleveland [A bet]




    System record: 4-0,5

    A bet: 2-3
    B bet: 1-2
    C bet: 1-0

    Total units won: +1.35

  18. #18
    Fair
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    5/14 Today's plays

    Quote Originally Posted by Fair View Post
    Kansas City @ Detroit = Detroit -1 [A bet] WIN
    Arizona @ LA Dodgers = La Dodgers -1 [A bet] PUSH
    Seattle @ Cleveland = Cleveland [A bet] WIN

    Arizona @ LA Dodgers = La Dodgers [A bet]

  19. #19
    Fair
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    5/15 Today's plays

    Quote Originally Posted by Fair View Post
    Arizona @ LA Dodgers = La Dodgers [A bet] LOST

    Arizona @ LA Dodgers = La Dodgers [B bet]

  20. #20
    Fair
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fair View Post
    Arizona @ LA Dodgers = La Dodgers [B bet] LOST

    Another half loss... strange may, a lot of away wins but i'm sure i will do better from now. Today begin 2 game series so i will not play until friday. Here's the updated recors:


    System record: 6 - 1

    A bet: 4-4
    B bet: 1-3
    C bet: 1-0

    Total units won: - 0,57

  21. #21
    Fair
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    5/20 Today's plays

    Finally back in action with today's interleague matches:

    Chicago Cubs @ Boston = Boston -1 [A bet]
    Oakland @ San Francisco = San Francisco [A bet]
    LA Dodgers @ CHI White Sox = Chicago [A bet]
    Houston @ Toronto = Toronto [A bet]

  22. #22
    Fair
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fair View Post

    Chicago Cubs @ Boston = Boston -1 [A bet] WIN
    Oakland @ San Francisco = San Francisco [A bet] WIN
    LA Dodgers @ CHI White Sox = Chicago [A bet] LOST
    Houston @ Toronto = Toronto [A bet] LOST

    LA Dodgers @ CHI White Sox = Chicago [B bet]
    Houston @ Toronto = Toronto -1 [B bet]


    System record: 8 - 1

    A bet: 6-6
    B bet: 1-3
    C bet: 1-0

    Total units won: + 1,43

  23. #23
    Fair
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fair View Post
    LA Dodgers @ CHI White Sox = Chicago [B bet] WIN
    Houston @ Toronto = Toronto -1 [B bet] WIN

    I'm always happy when i avoid a couple of C bet


    System record: 10 - 1

    A bet: 6-6
    B bet: 3-3
    C bet: 1-0

    Total units won: + 3,43

  24. #24
    Fair
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    5/23 Today's plays

    Here we go with another baseball week


    Cincinnati @ Philadelphia = Philadelphia [A bet]
    Washington @ Milwaukee = Milwaukee [A bet]

  25. #25
    Fair
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    5/24 Today's plays

    Quote Originally Posted by Fair View Post


    Cincinnati @ Philadelphia = Philadelphia [A bet] WIN
    Washington @ Milwaukee = Milwaukee [A bet] WIN

    Two large wins yesterday. Today i have another play:

    Florida @ San Francisco = San Francisco [A bet]



    System record: 12 - 1

    A bet: 8-6
    B bet: 3-3
    C bet: 1-0

    Total units won: + 5,43

  26. #26
    Fair
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    5/25 Today's plays

    Quote Originally Posted by Fair View Post

    Florida @ San Francisco = San Francisco [A bet] LOST

    Florida @ San Francisco = San Francisco [B bet]

  27. #27
    Fair
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    5/26 Today's plays

    Quote Originally Posted by Fair View Post
    Florida @ San Francisco = San Francisco [B bet] LOST

    Florida @ San Francisco = San Francisco [C bet]

  28. #28
    Fair
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fair View Post
    Florida @ San Francisco = San Francisco [C bet] LOST

    Another bad loss... very strange. Anyway it's time to recover. I've 3 plays for the weekend:

    Kansas City @ Texas = Texas -1 [A bet]
    Cincinnati @ Atlanta = Atlanta [A bet]
    San Francisco @ Milwaukee = Milwaukee [A bet]


    System record: 12 - 2

    A bet: 8-7
    B bet: 3-4
    C bet: 1-1

    Total units won: - 5,42

  29. #29
    Fair
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    5/28 Today's plays

    Quote Originally Posted by Fair View Post

    Kansas City @ Texas = Texas -1 [A bet] LOST
    Cincinnati @ Atlanta = Atlanta [A bet] LOST
    San Francisco @ Milwaukee = Milwaukee [A bet] LOST

    Kansas City @ Texas = Texas -1 [B bet]
    Cincinnati @ Atlanta = Atlanta [B bet]
    San Francisco @ Milwaukee = Milwaukee [B bet]

  30. #30
    Fair
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fair View Post
    Kansas City @ Texas = Texas -1 [B bet] WIN
    Cincinnati @ Atlanta = Atlanta [B bet] WIN
    San Francisco @ Milwaukee = Milwaukee [B bet] WIN



    System record: 15 - 2

    A bet: 8-10
    B bet: 6-4
    C bet: 1-1

    Total units won: - 2,42

  31. #31
    Fair
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    5/30 Today's plays

    Start of a new week with a lot of plays. Let's hope for a good week

    San Francisco @ St. Louis = St Louis [A bet]
    Colorado @ LA Dodgers = LA Dodgers [A bet]
    Baltimore @ Seattle = Seattle [A bet]
    Cleveland @ Toronto = Toronto [A bet]
    CHI White Sox = Boston = Boston -1 [A bet]

  32. #32
    Fair
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    5/31 Today's plays

    Quote Originally Posted by Fair View Post

    San Francisco @ St. Louis = St Louis [A bet] LOST
    Colorado @ LA Dodgers = LA Dodgers [A bet] WIN
    Baltimore @ Seattle = Seattle [A bet] WIN
    Cleveland @ Toronto = Toronto [A bet] WIN
    CHI White Sox = Boston = Boston -1 [A bet] LOST

    San Francisco @ St. Louis = St Louis [B bet]
    CHI White Sox = Boston = Boston [B bet]

  33. #33
    Fair
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    6/1 Today's plays

    Quote Originally Posted by Fair View Post
    San Francisco @ St. Louis = St Louis [B bet] WIN
    CHI White Sox = Boston = Boston [B bet] LOST

    CHI White Sox = Boston = Boston [C bet]

  34. #34
    zeusky
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    I am with you on the Red Sox; just wish it was someone else other than old Timmy on the mound.

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