[TPowell]

Almost done with school so I'm going to hop back into MLB pretty soon. Going to post all of my leans in here from time to time before I start back in a couple weeks after schools over.

4/29/11

Washington Nationals ML (+150)

Lincecum has yet to pitch 8 innings this year and it won't happen at all unless he can keep his pitch count down. He's been over 110 pitches in his last 3 starts and issued 10 walks. I love fading top pitchers who make these kind of mistakes. Jason Marquis is rock solid so far this year and should stay that way against a weak SF offense. Marquis has pitched at least 6 innings in every start and hasn't gave up over 3 runs in any start and has only walked 5 batters. This line is a little too high with WASH being at home and being on a slight skid.

Chicago Cubs ML (-105)

As I type this, Arizona is drubbing the Cubs 10-2 in the 7th, but this will be a completely different game tommorow. I'm VERY intrigued by Zambrano's last 2 starts. He's managed to pitch 13 innings with a 14-1 K/B ratio and not give up a HR. I know LA lit him up but I still feel good about his outing. On the other hand, the Galarraga kid couldn't keep a ping pong ball in the ballpark. He's given up 8 HR's and walked 10 batters in only 23 innings of work. I don't buy the idea of schedule difficulty making this kid look bad. Those numbers speak for thereself. The teams are pretty even outside of the pitching matchup which the Cubs win by far. I would make Chicago around -120 or so



RECOMMENDED PLAY (If you play totals, first fives, etc)

Baltimore Orioles (First Five Innings)

[blackeyeshamus]

like 'em, money.
great work. thanks.

[thericker7]

money in da bank

[TPowell]

Washington won and the first five game I mentioned was tied after 5 so no blood there. Cubs currently tied in the 5th.


4/30/11

Seattle Mariners ML (+175)

Pitching matchup is virtually even here except Seattle can't give Fister any run support but regardless, I think we have a wash in this department. Lackey has looked solid in his last two starts after getting shelled in his first two. Fister has been solid all year and is a pitcher I don't mind tailing. In five starts, he's only given up over 2 runs in 1 start. Bullpens are both pretty unspectacular which makes me weary but I don't see any disadvantages with taking the Mariners. Seattle is averaging over .260 in their last 10 games which led to a road sweep of the Tigers earlier in the week and a 6-4 L10 record. Boston is also playing well lately, but they've done it on the mound and specifically with the SP's. I really think this line should be around Boston -170 or so at most.


Other Leans:

Florida Marlins ML (-125)
Milwaukee Brewers ML (-120)

[No coincidences]

Nice work today TP.

What about the Mets Saturday?

[TPowell]

Nice work today TP.

What about the Mets Saturday?

didn't look too hard because of the price tbh but I dont like how PHI shelled Niese earlier in the year.

[TPowell]

really torn on adding Florida to the card tommorow

[onlooker]

4/29/11

Seattle Mariners ML (+175)

Pitching matchup is virtually even here except Seattle can't give Fister any run support but regardless, I think we have a wash in this department. Lackey has looked solid in his last two starts after getting shelled in his first two. Fister has been solid all year and is a pitcher I don't mind tailing. In five starts, he's only given up over 2 runs in 1 start. Bullpens are both pretty unspectacular which makes me weary but I don't see any disadvantages with taking the Mariners. Seattle is averaging over .260 in their last 10 games which led to a road sweep of the Tigers earlier in the week and a 6-4 L10 record. Boston is also playing well lately, but they've done it on the mound and specifically with the SP's. I really think this line should be around Boston -170 or so at most.

You mean the 30th right?

Welcome back.

[TPowell]

yeah good catch onlooker

[No coincidences]

didn't look too hard because of the price tbh but I dont like how PHI shelled Niese earlier in the year.

Philly shelled Niese (Roy pitched; they won 11-0) and Philly shelled the Mets tonight, yet this line has dropped significantly so far. Roy hasn't lost to the Mets since like '01.

[onlooker]

By the way, I will be on the Mariners tomorrow as well.

[ttratter]

Nice job tonight. Gettem today.

[Nova0387]

Welcome back!...Sucks too see you on the mariner tho since I'm on Bost

[drfunkmaster]

good luck on your plays

[ttratter]

So what is the final card today?

[windwind]

Seattle Mariners ML (+175)

[onlooker]

Told you I was on it too.

[TPowell]

glad I didn't make them actual plays. Road faves=

[onlooker]

glad I didn't make them actual plays. Road faves=

Yes. That Marlins game would of been a tough one to handle. Terrible.

[TPowell]

5/1/11

Pittsburgh Pirates ML (+175)

Both teams come into this game hitting under .200 as a team in the past ten games. Both teams bullpens averaging under an ERA of 2.00 in the past 10 games, with the Pirates being 0.81. Ubaldo Jimenez has struggled mightily so far with a 6.75 ERA in 16 innings. Jimenez is getting an ace quality line in this matchup while pitching like a shmuck. He gave up 1 hit in his last start but still managed to give up 3 earned runs thanks to his 4 free passes issued. On the other side, Pittsburgh starts Charlie Morton who is having a solid year. Outside of a shelling from Florida, Morton has been a monster so far this season. He's pitched at least 6 innings in all other starts and given up 2 earned runs once and 1 earned run THREE times. In this matchup, the first team to 3 runs probably wins this game. Why not take the huge dog who's playing just as good as the big favorite?

[TPowell]

5/2/11

New York Yankees ML (+110)

Get out your time machines, Bartolo Colon is relevant and pitching well again. He's had solid outings in his first 2 starts of the year and a couple more solid relief performances outside of his first appearance of the year. 6 walks in 26 innings is great for a horse like Colon. I think Colon could be ready for another solid year, if not he should at least keep up the solid work for a little longer. Justin Verlander has been solid for the Tigers but he's given up 3 earned runs in every start except for 1 which was a complete game (2 runs). He just isn't ace-like to me right now and the Yankees saw him about a month ago which is a huge deal for me. I think the second matchup always favors the hitters, especially in a one month turnaround. I see little doubt that the Yankees are the better team and the Tigers have an AWFUL bullpen which is a solid plus (5.28 ERA on year). I like the Yankees as a slight fave and they're the slight dog, so obviously I think New York is the right play.

[TPowell]

Up 6 units right now (4-0)

[windwind]

Pittsburgh Pirates ML (+175)

[TPowell]

Up 7.10 units right now (5-0)

[TPowell]

5/3/11

Pittsburgh Pirates ML (+140)

Very intriguing line here with SD as such a big fave over a decent Pittsburgh team. Jeff Karstens has pitched pretty solid since joining the rotation. His first start against Cincy wasn't great but he's had back-to-back 2 earned run or less performances since against San WAS. Mat Latos hasn't looked anywhere near his sub 3 ERA form of last season and San Diego is 0-4 in games that Latos has started. He has yet to hold any team under 3 runs which is essential, given how terrible the San Diego offense has been. Coming into this game, the Pirates are playing better baseball, indicated by batting a much higher percentage and boasting a lower bullpen ERA than the Padres in the past 10 games. I would make San Diego around -130 or so at most in this affair and they are over 20 cents higher so I think Pittsburgh has quite a bit of value on the ML.


Los Angeles Angels ML (+140)

This is a pretty simple observation, both Haren and Lester are STUDS and I don't think its possible to call either one the better pitcher, even though I lean slightly towards Haren. The teams are rather well matched as well. My key stat in this game includes the Angels .299 batting average against left handers on the season and .332 in the last 10 games. Both bullpens do a solid job, even though Boston's has been lights out recently after a terrible start to the season. With home field advantage, I would compute Boston at around -125, so we're getting a quarter here value wise with Los Angeles as Boston is -150 instead of -125. As mentioned, I could go on and on about the greatness of the SP's, but its pointless to me because of how similar they are.




Other Leans:

New York Yankees ML (-155)
Kansas City Royals ML (-120)