A little about myself - normally a system handicapper since the late 70 (before computers) but I suck at MLB - so I told a friend that I could "USE MY BRAIN, like the old days" and pick winners better then using a system - so for 162 games I'm betting on or against "my" team the Milwaukee Brewers. I obsess over the Brewers and watch their opponents three series ahead. I still use spreadsheets but I have no "system".
So Far 10-8 +4.47 units.
I'm not loving this game a lot and after going 2-1 +2.02 vs. the Phillies and having a very good read on those games (could have won that 3rd game at +180) this game is sort of fuzzy.
Houston - Nelson Figueroa LOVES facing Righthanders and most of the Brewers starting line-up and particularly the top of the order are all right handed so "point" for Houston. However if you look at Figueroa's games he's done well against the weak hitting teams and poorly against good heating teams. "point Milwaukee". One thing to note is that Figueroa can not hold a runner on AT ALL!
The Houston starters have a 4.62 run average and the bullpen has a 3.94 Run average so as a team they are giving up runs! The Houston top of the order is hitting .232 of late with 2.6 runs scored and 2.4 RBI so not a LOT of production out of those guys (more then the Phillies though).
Milwaukee on the other hand is 3.2 and 3.2 and is hitting .302 for the top 5 guys in the same period.
Gallardo - I was looking back to see if Yovani had ever had two worse back to back games in his career and yes - once 8/8/07 and 8/15/07. After those two outing's he came back pitching 6 of the next 7 games with Game Scores in the mid 60's.
But if you look at his bad games. His 1st BAD game he suffered Early Season Complete Game Syndrome*. Then in his 2nd bad game the Brewers had all sort of scheduling problems with rain outs and so forth and Yovani is never good at having his schedule messed up!
Gallardo will have a good game! The Brewer bullpen is FINALLY rested and has a 3.38 run average and the Brewer defense will either put on a clinic or be totally horrible with bone head mental mistakes - Houston is just atrocious defensibly.
So even though the Brewers are -200 I feel that taking the Astros at +175 is just tossing money away!
*Early Season Complete Game Syndrome = seems early in the season what a starter pitches a complete game he is gassed the very next game. So many warm up pitches, extra at bats, defense and so forth. He might not feel it but command and velocity and movement are just a little off and they come into the game overrated. I have not looked DEEPLY into this yet - just going on evidence I have seen so far - it's something I would love to put actual numbers on!
11-8 +5.47 units! All bets are one unit - I believe it's silly to bet more then one unit thinking one bet is a better bet then the next.
Today's game (Saturday 4/23/11)
First the Brewers!
What can you say about the Brewers - red hot bats - The top of the line-up is hitting a very productive .319 scoring 3.9 runs a game and driving in 3.3. anything the bottom of the order does is icing on the cake. We shall see about Rickie Weeks injury but overall "at the moment" his production will not be missed if he does not play.
Marcum - I've been looking for a reason to worry about Marcum but I can not find one. OK - maybe one, three of his 4 games have been againt Pittsburgh twice and Atlanta! The two weakest scoring teams in the NL. Now it's Houston, about middle of the pack and performing of late like a middle of the pack team offensively.
One tiny thing to worry about is that Marcum was away on bereavement leave and did not have his normal bullpen outings between starts! just sayin!
Brewer bullpen - the important part of the pen is well rested and ready to go. The long relievers have been a little iffy but it's sort of been spring training-ish where they just don't want to give up a LOT of runs - no real pressure.
Houston - top of the order are pulling their weight hitting .252 and scorning 2.73 and hitting in 2.73 runs per game (compared to the brewers 3.9 & 3.3)
Brett Myers - you see what you get. The good thing for the Crew is that he kills lefties (except Fielder) and the Crew have few lefties starting . He's giving up HR's again, unlike last year and he will pitch 6 innings - almost guaranteed.
He BETTER pitch 6 innings because the Houston pen pitched 109 pitches last night and could be a little thin. This is where I feel the Brewers will have the big edge! Bullpen tonight!
Another thing that Houston was HORRIBLE at last night was fielding - if you did not see the game they made what I consider 5 errors in one inning - three missed DP's an error by 3B and on the same play a bobble by rock hand Lee in LF (that guy is the worst OF in the Majors - if anybody plays Strat-o-matic they will agree 5e8+2).
However - something is making my spider sense twitch. I believe the Brewers win by +2 or . . . lose!! Maybe they got tired running around the bases! I don't know
So for THIS thread Brewer -168
Wait - I just saw that Houston is MUCH better vs. LHP - Marcum is a RHP. I like this game even more now.
Personally I have 1/2 unit at -168 and 1/2 unit on the RL +130 - I'm not a fan of the run line as I think it's a sucker bet normally but in this case - win big or lose!
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Side note - when I told my friend I was going to bet on or against the Brewers in every game this year I did not consider I would be
1. betting the favorite so much
2. Betting the Brewers making me look like a homer
Betting Brewers 7-4 +3.44
Betting against 4-4 +2.13
Good luck
Last edited by Grinder12000; 04-23-11 at 10:45 AM.
nice writeup man. i took the under today in this game. i think marcum stays on track this season against the lowly hitting 'stros and i did like myers' numbers against the brew crew. good luck tonight
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