[dmheal]

I was looking at the MLB League Trends and saw the following:

MLB Baseball Trends - Season to Date

The Spread Trends (ATS)

Against : Dogs 121-61 66.48%
Away Dogs 89-42 67.94%
Home Dogs 32-19 62.75%


It clearly shows that the dogs have the best record by about 2:1.
My question is this: Since this is ATS I assume you would bet the +1.5 line on the dog! Is this correct?
Any help would be appreciated.

Dean

[wade1]

This tells me you should always bet the favorits

[dmheal]

This tells me you should always bet the favorits

Please explain. In basketball, if the fav is -8, the dog would be +8. If bet against the spread you would betg the dog @ +8. In baseball the fav is always a -1.5 and the dog is always +1.5, so if the dogs win over 66% of the time the bet would be on them.

If I am wrong would someone please correct me.

Thanks,

Dean

[Jasonal_98]

If I'm reading the stats right, it seems that you would maximize your profit with straight wagers on dogs.

[dmheal]

If I'm reading the stats right, it seems that you would maximize your profit with straight wagers on dogs.

That is what I thought to until I looked at the following stat.
I only posted because I had a question about the ATS betting, so I left off tghe SU stats.

Here's the comparison:

Straight Up Trends (Won Loss)

Dogs 96-85 53.04%
Away Dogs 66-64 50.77%
Home Dogs 30-21 58.82%


Against The Spread Trends (ATS)

Dogs 121-61 66.48%
Away Dogs 89-42 67.94%
Home Dogs 32-19 62.75%

This shows a bet for the dog cashes about 65% of the time while the SU bet on the dog cashes just over 50% of the time.

However, it's not really what it seem. Here is two of the lines from The Greek.

Florida is the dog: Bet +1.5 @ 1.83. If you bet ML @ 2.85 1.02 better odds.

Washington is the dog: Bet +1.5 @ 1.65. ML is @ 2.13, .48 better odds.

The ML is almost always at least .65 higher than the Run line.

So, even though the Dogs ATS win about 65% of the time, the odds are about 100 points less, so I'll
take a bet that hits at 50% and pays out double what the ATS pays out.

For all you number crunchers this is correct, right?

Dean

951 Florida Marlins, J Vazquez -R, +1.5 @ 1.83, ML @ 2.85
952 Philadelphia Phillies, R Oswalt -R, -1.5 @ 2.00, ML @ 1.50

953 Milwaukee Brewers, C Narveson -L, -1½ @ 2.35, ML @ 1.81
954 Washington Nationals, T Gorzelanny -L, +1.5 @ 1.65, ML @ 2.13

[sweethook]

that +1.5 rl will win about 60% or so imo. but it is juiced up to cover the diff for the net $ win , hope that helps. ... gl man