Originally Posted by
befus
Well after many years of this I think it is just what it is. About half of all games (wins and losses) will be decided by dumb luck. Did I think Fla would win 2-0 yesterday.....no, otherwise I would have played the under. I thought it would be about 6-2; I won, but not like I had it capped. Losses occur the same way. To get to the magic 60% win level (now in bases it doesn't have to be that high, but you see the point) you need 35-15 in the other 50%. That can be tough obviously. I would always err on the side of caution, or fewer rather than more plays. That is just me. The key in all this is money management. My bankroll is totally controlled by my little spreadsheet which is set up on a modified Kelly Criterion basis with a sliding percentage based on expectation of success. Find something written by Huey Mahl and read it! Get that down, and, if you can cap a little, the rest will take care of itself. (side note; while parlays are fun they are not very good for positive return. I would limit them to more than 10% of the daily action myself). YMMV.