Milwaukee got its first win under interim manager Dale Sveum on Wednesday and the Brewers will be looking for more of the same when close out their series with the Chicago Cubs on Thursday at Wrigley.
All is not lost for the Milwaukee Brewers. They blew their lead in the National League Wild Card race by going 3-12 in September – until Wednesday, that is, when the Brewers won their first game under interim manager Dale Sveum by beating the Chicago Cubs 6-2.
This was at Wrigley Field, and despite starter Ben Sheets having to leave the game after two innings with elbow trouble. Milwaukee paid out at -104; in Thursday afternoon’s rematch, the betting odds will be stacked much more heavily against the Brew Crew.
We’re talking +210 here. The difference is that Milwaukee will be starting David Bush, who is clinging persistently to the back end of the rotation with a 4.24 ERA and a 4.84 tRA, numbers that suggest Bush is slightly worse than your average pitcher. Warming up for the Cubs, you have Rich Harden (1.65 ERA, 2.82 tRA), who would be winning a Cy Young this year if he hadn’t switched over from the American League’s Oakland Athletics halfway through the season.
Chalk is simply not a problem when Harden pitches. The Cubs are supplying him with 5.7 runs per game, and that combination of premium hitting and pitching is why they’re the best team in the NL this year. That’s what the numbers say: Chicago has the best overall record (91-59), the best home record (52-25) and the best run differential (+184). The Cubs are 8-2 in Harden’s 10 starts for a profit of 4.05 units.
Bush’s profile is much lower than Harden’s, but that doesn’t make him a lousy pitcher. In fact, he’s been on fire since nearly losing his job after Jeff Suppan came off the DL, throwing seven quality starts in his last eight games. The Brewers won all five of his August appearances by a combined score of 32-10. But they’re 0-3 in September to drop to 14-13 on the season – still barely in the money at 1.15 units.
The bigger angle for handicappers is the Over clocking in at 15-9-3 in Bush’s 27 starts. That includes four of his last five, even with his improved pitching. The Brewers bats appear to be dong their part after a dreadful start to September; the over is 5-0-4 (yes, four pushes) over the past 10 days, although dreadful pitching during the four-game sweep against the Phillies had more to do with those inflated scores.
Since this is a 2:20 p.m. Eastern start at Wrigley, the total is being held off the board until closer to game time. Weather conditions for Chicago look pretty good: sunny skies, a light breeze from the East and temperatures around 60°F. That breeze is actually coming into the ballpark from right field, but the Over is 7-6 when the wind is under 10 mph, and that’s what the forecast has in store. This is the kind of game Ferris Bueller skips class to see.
With Sheets only getting through those two innings on Wednesday, the Milwaukee bullpen requires added handicapping attention. On the season, it’s 10th in the majors with a 3.97 ERA, better than the Cubs in 18th with their 4.13 ERA. Middle relief never gets its due, but Seth McLung has given the Brewers a big lift since coming out of the rotation for Suppan. He’s allowed just three earned runs in his last 11 innings, and he’ll probably be needed again Thursday, since Milwaukee blew through seven relievers. Bush will also be pitching on three days’ rest.
Given the questionable manner in which former manager Ned Yost handled the Brewers pitching staff, especially Bush, the morale boost provided by Sveum’s presence might be enough to ward off the fatigue. That’s already one too many “ifs” against Harden and the Cubs.
SBR Top-Rated Sportsbooks
Brewers look for another win at Chicago Cubs
Reply With Quote
