[toddorts]

Hey everyone. Long time lurker, first time poster. After spending the entire baseball season fine-tuning my handicapping formulas, I figured I'd post my picks here for the post season. Wish me luck! I'll keep a running tally of the record at the end of each day.

Rays @ Rangers OVER 8.5 +100
Tigers @ Yankees OVER 7 -115
YANKEES vs Tigers -125


Rays @ Rangers

The Rangers are obvious favorites to win this game, but none of the lines are giving any decent value, in my opinion. I'd need to see about -160 before I'd think about betting this one, and the best I could find was -170. I think the OVER is a good bet, though. My formulas are showing a likely total of almost 9.5. The Rangers have been scoring a lot more at home than on the road this season (over and above what you can expect from the stadium's normal higher scores), and I think they'll do well against the inexperienced Moore, which should do enough to push the score over 8.5.

Tigers @ Yankees

I think people are giving the Tigers' bats too much credit in this match-up. Against Sabathia, I'm only expecting them to score 3-4 runs, with the Yankees likely turning out 5 against Verlander on their home turf. There isn't a lot of value here, but I think the bet is a money maker at -125, which I found at a couple of sportsbooks. The total is a much safer bet over 7, though. My formulas show this matchup going over 7 almost 60% of the time, so taking the over at -115 is an easy decision.

[toddorts]

Well, with the suspension of the Yankees/Tigers game, only ended up with one play today. Now to get to work on tomorrow's games.

Record:

1-0
100%
+1.0 units

[golfrulz]

keep it going. gl.

[toddorts]

Ok, time for today's picks. I didn't see any value on plays on the Diamondbacks/Brewers game, so no picks on that one.

PHILLIES vs Cardinals -215
Cardinals @ Phillies OVER 7 -110
RAYS @ Rangers +112
Rays @ Rangers OVER 8.5 +100

Cardinals @ Phillies

Citizens Bank Park is a nasty field for visiting teams, depressing scores quite a bit. On the other hand, the Phillies do incredibly well at home, averaging about 9% better scoring at home than they do overall. Many of you would say "never bet on a really strong favorite." I've never subscribed to that theory. Value is value, and my formulas show that the Phillies win this game about 70% of the time. At -215, there is value here. I wouldn't take it at worse odds, though. The value disappears almost immediately. On the total, I'm liking the over. Even with the stadium depressing the Cardinals' runs, I still expect about 3 runs out of them, with the Phillies probably scoring 5, maybe even 6. At -110, this is a no-brainer. I'd probably still take it at -120, but most books are offering better.

Rays @ Rangers

Derek Holland has had a pretty good season, but I still wouldn't describe his pitching as anything better than average. Shields, on the other hand, has had one hell of a season, and has also demonstrated long-term competence as a pitcher, which makes a difference when you get into the post season and the pressure is up. I give a clear pitching advantage to the Rays. My formulas still show the Rangers with a tiny edge at about 50.5% probability of winning thanks to the home field advantage and better hitting, but with the books offering +110 or better on the Rays, it makes sense to put the money on them. They'll win this matchup enough times to show value. On the total, there are a couple of different options, with some books offering it at 8 and others at 8.5 It depends on how much risk you want. My formulas show about a 61.5% chance of going over 8.5, or a 64% of going over 8. With the much better odds being offered on over 8.5, I found enough value there to take it instead of taking 8. If you're more risk-averse, though, taking it at 8 still presents a lot of value.

[toddorts]

Not a bad day. Went 3-1, +1.37 units. As expected, the Rangers won, but the Rays put up a good fight. Almost.

Record:

4-1
80%
+2.37 units

[toddorts]

Some interesting plays today. Unless my formulas are playing tricks on me, I think some of these lines are absolutely nuts. No way are some of these dogs as unlikely to win as the line would indicate. Today's plays:

YANKEES vs Tigers RL -1.5 +135
Tigers @ Yankees OVER 9 -115
DIAMONDBACKS @ Brewers +153
CARDINALS @ Phillies +175

Tigers @ Yankees

This game is all about the runline. The moneyline presents little to no value on either team, but there is good value on the runline. The Yankees figure to win this game by at least 2 points about 47.5% of the time. With a runline at +135 odds, it's an easy choice. The over was also an easy choice. This game will go over 9 about 64% of the time, thanks to average pitching on both sides. The public is always leery of betting the over once it gets up into the 9+ territory, which is what is keeping the odds good on this play. At -115, this is practically a steal.

Diamondbacks @ Brewers

Yes, it's true that the Brewers are the clear favorite in this game. The pitching is about evenly matched, and the Brewers have better hitting combined with a home field advantage. But the thing is, they aren't going to win this matchup over 60% of the time, which is what it would take to justify the crazy odds that the books have on them. With the books all giving the Diamondbacks +150 or better, there is clear value on the play. I'd take the Diamondbacks at +140, let alone +153. Easy choice.

Cardinals @ Phillies

The odds on this game are even further out of whack than the D-backs game. With solid pitching on both sides in this game, the Phillies only figure to win it about 53% of the time, even with their home field advantage. The problem with the Phillies is that their batting drops off significantly as you go from average pitching to good pitching, and there can be little doubt that Carpenter is a solid pitcher. With a lesser pitcher on the mound for the Cardinals, this would be an easy win for the Phillies with Lee, but with Carpenter on the mound, they only have a tiny edge. With the Cardinals getting +170 or better at all of the books, this is another easy choice.

[toddorts]

Not a great day, but not a bad one, either, considering all of the dogs I had picked. Sometimes a group of dogs turns into an incredible day, sometimes it turns into a disappointment. As long as it pays off over time, though, that's all that matters. At the end of the day, went 1-3, -1.25 units.

Record:

5-4
56%
+1.25 units

[toddorts]

Going with a couple more dogs today, plus an easy total. Catching a flight at 5pm, so I won't be able to watch the first game. Should be able to get on-board WiFi, so I'll just have to follow along in the in-game thread here.

Rangers @ RAYS RL -1.5 +160
YANKEES @ Tigers +117
Yankees @ Tigers OVER 7 -120

Rangers @ Rays

There is value to be found in either the runline or the moneyline on opposite sides of this game. If you like less risk, the way to go is the moneyline on the Rangers. They'll win this game just a touch less than half of the time, and they're getting +117. Those are decent odds, and worth a bet for someone less risk averse. For me, though, the better odds are on the runline with Tampa Bay. The Rays stand to win this matchup by at least 2 runs roughly 43% of the time. The -1.5 runline is paying out +160, which is equivalent to only winning about 39% of the time. Easy call for me. But like I said, it is the riskier play, and takes longer over time to make a profit, but it makes it in a bigger way in the end. On the over/under, there is just no value here. I'm skipping it.

Yankees @ Tigers

This is another game where both the runline and moneyline have good value. I ended up going with the moneyline just because I think Verlander is so overrated. Not that he's not a great pitcher, just that he can't make up for the fact that the Tigers' hitting is simply inferior to the Yankees. Pitching can't do everything. Even against great pitching, the Yankees still always pull out a good amount of hits and runs. Even against Verlander, I expect to see the Yankees with about 4 runs today. I also expect about 3-4 runs from the Tigers, though, which is why I went with the moneyline instead of the runline. The numbers indicate that taking the runline on the Tigers pays out better over time, but I went with the lower risk on this one and took the Yankees at +117. But honestly, there is nothing wrong with taking the Tigers on the runline at +180. It presents great value, and I'd do it myself if I weren't such a wimp. The total is the easiest call on this game. My figures show the total going over 7 about 58% of the time. I'd take the over at -130 or better, and everyone is offering it right now at -120. Pretty safe bet.

[toddorts]

Another down day. Definitely a good Tigers/Yankees game, though. Sabathia just didn't bring it tonight. Oh well. You can't win 'em all. For the day, 1-2, -1.16 units.

Record:

6-6
50%
+0.09 units

[toddorts]

Today is going to be an interesting day in baseball. I see several dogs that really should be favorites, in my opinion, and with some relatively poor pitching in some games, we could see lots of runs scored. I've got lots of plays today:

Rangers @ RAYS -1.5 +170
Phillies @ CARDINALS +125
Yankees @ Tigers OVER 9.5 -115
YANKEES @ Tigers -103
Brewers @ D-backs UNDER 9 -115
Brewers @ D-BACKS +106

Rangers @ Rays

The only play I have on this game is the runline. Granted, it is a long-shot at Rays -1.5, but there is plenty of value here at +170. Some books are now offering even better, but I had to get my plays in early this morning. I'm seeing +180 right now, and that is definitely worth the play. Truth is, I'd probably take it at +150. My numbers show the Rays winning by at least 2 points about 42.5% of the time with this matchup.

Phillies @ Cardinals

This is one of those games where I think it's crazy to have the Cards as the dog. They have home field advantage, and although both teams are playing good pitchers on the mound, the Phillies have been the ones struggling this season against strong pitching. Their numbers drop off considerably against good pitchers, and I think they're going to have trouble against Garcia. I see this game finishing with the Cards winning by about 2 runs. Again, no play on the total, as the posted line is pretty dang accurate on this one.

Yankees @ Tigers

Two plays on this game. We'll start with the total. As always, people are hesitant to take an over when it hits 9. I wouldn't hesitate to take this one even at 10. Even in pitcher-friendly Comerica Park, the fact of the matter is that neither of these pitchers are playoff quality. Burnett is certainly better than Porcello, but he's still nothing to be proud of. In another field, this would be a homerun derby. At Comerica Park, not so much, but you'll still see runs generated quite heavily. I'm looking for 5-6 runs from both teams. By my calculations, this game goes over 9.5 about 65% of the time. There's good value at -115. On sides, I'll take the Yankees in this one. Burnett is the stronger pitcher, and he's going to suppress a run or two on the Tigers' side. I see the Yankees chewing up Porcello and spitting him out. These bats against such poor pitching will likely produce an easy win for the Yankees. The line presents tons of value at -103.

Brewers @ D-backs

This is going to be an interesting game. We have two solid pitchers on the mound, with the D-backs at home where they have dominated this year. The Brewers put up pretty good hitting numbers against solid pitching, but they have a lackluster road record. This won't be a blowout by any stretch of the imagination, but I expect the D-backs to get a home win on this one by a run or two. On the total, this is an easy call. Both of these pitchers are solid, and neither of them will give up many runs, despite the solid hitting on both sides. I'm expecting 7 or 8 runs, at a probability of just over 56%. Not a ton of value at -115, but enough to make it worthwhile.

[toddorts]

Nice to have an up day after a couple of bad ones. Would have been nice if the D-backs could have settled for 7 runs instead of 8, though. Oh well, still 3-2-1 for the day, +0.84 units.

Record:

9-8-1
53%
+0.93 units

[toddorts]

Stuck in meetings all day today, so had to make my picks and post early. Just a few plays with value today:

PHILLIES @ Cardinals RL -1.5 +145
Phillies @ Cardinals OVER 7.5 +100
Brewers @ DIAMONDBACKS -105

Phillies @ Cardinals

In all likelihood, this is going to be a really close game. The Phillies have an edge with better pitching, but the Cardinals have done well this year against good pitching. I'm expecting 4-5 runs from both teams. The reason to go with the runline is simply the value that it presents. The moneyline has no value on either side, but the runline is a decent play if you can find a line +145 or better. I wouldn't go near it with worse than +145, though. It's really right on the edge of being profitable at those odds. The Phillies figure to win by at least two runs about 42.5% of the time. The much better play here is on the total. The Phillies are going up against Jackson, who isn't exactly a red hot pitcher. Their bats will be producing runs tonight. On the other hand, the Cards have stood up quite well to good pitching, and I still consider Oswalt to be a good pitcher, despite slacking performance this season. With both teams likely to score 4-5 runs, the over presents good value at +100.

Brewers @ Diamondbacks

Just as yesterday, I just don't think the betting public is giving the D-backs enough credit for their powerhouse performance this year at home. They have absolutely dominated playing at home, and the Brewers have really struggled on the road. Wolf is the better pitcher, but he's been slipping a bit. In the end, I expect 4-5 runs from the Brewers, and 5-6 from the D-backs. And that is exactly why I don't see any value whatsover on the total. It really is a toss-up on whether this goes over or under, in my opinion. I'll pass on that and just take the moneyline on the home team.

[toddorts]

Good day. The first two plays canceled each other out, but the D-backs walloped the Brewers, even more than expected. Seriously, you can't underestimate this team at home. The same will be true of the Brewers, though. Both teams absolutely own their home fields. Only one game tomorrow, but I'm already seeing a good play. Holding out till morning to see if the line improves. As for today, 2-1, +0.95 units.

Record:

11-9-1
55%
+1.88 units

[toddorts]

Looks like some good plays today. I'm going to be stuck on a flight tonight during the Yanks/Tigers game, though. Sucks. Hopefully I'll have some good news when I land. Today's plays:

TIGERS @ Yankees +162
Tigers @ Yankees OVER 9 -105

Tigers @ Yankees

Only one game tonight, but it's a good one. I love the moneyline on this game. It's absolutely crazy that I can find a +162 line on the Tigers with Fister on the mound. Seriously? Against Nova? Hell, I'd take Detroit at -105. Don't get me wrong, it's not like the Tigers are a "lock," as some people around here like to say so often, but I do expect them to win this matchup more often than they lose it. Against Fister, the Yanks are likely to get about 4-5 runs. That would be great if the Yanks were starting a comparable pitcher, but Nova just isn't in the same category as Fister, in my opinion. Nova's season WHIP is at 1.33, with 1.36 for his career. Fister is putting up a WHIP of only 1.06 this year, and 1.18 for his career. Those are damned good numbers. I know a lot of guys discount the old fashioned ERA stat, but I do use it in my formulas, and it also gives Fister a clear edge. He's got 2.83 for the season, and 3.49 for his career. Both his WHIP and his ERA improved considerably during this season, and it seems consistent. Nova's ERA, on the other hand, is at 3.70 for the season, and 3.86 for his career. Granted, that's still not bad, but it doesn't compare to Fister's stats. Nova is also a rookie, and although I don't use subjective criteria in my analysis, it's something that I would think about if I did. Game 5 of a division series is a lot of pressure for a rookie who hasn't put up great stats. As for the hitting, both teams will still do well tonight, but the Tigers have the edge. Against less than stellar pitching, the Tigers have averaged about 5.3 runs per 9 innings of play. The Yanks against a pitcher of Fister's caliber have only managed to put up about 4.7 runs per 9 innings of play. Like I said, it's going to be close, and it may come down to the bullpen in the end, but at +163 (or + anything on the Tigers, for that matter), this moneyline is loaded with value.

On the total, this line shifted in our favor during the night. When I looked before going to bed, there was zero value to be found on either side of the total. Now, the line has shifted to giving decent value on the over at some books. I found a -105, but I'd take it at -110 if necessary. Not a huge amount of value, but enough to make it a worthwhile play.

[toddorts]

Can't believe I didn't get to watch this game tonight! Had to fly. Sounds like I missed a good one. The over missed, but with such good odds on the Tigers, ended up doing well for the day. Went 1-1, +0.62 units.

Record:

12-10-1
54.5%
+2.5 units

[toddorts]

Looking forward to a good day in baseball. Flying again tonight, but I'll be able to watch the first game at 5pm. Here are the plays for today:

D-backs @ BREWERS RL -1.5 +150
CARDINALS @ Phillies +167

D-backs @ Brewers

This is an interesting game. On a neutral field, I'd take the D-backs in this game. But this isn't a neutral field. Not by a long shot. The Brewers have been tearing it up at home all this season. Both teams are starting good pitchers, and both teams hit well against good pitchers. So, it could be a toss-up, but the home field advantage is just too strong here. The Brewers have scored about 12% more runs at home than they have overall this season. And their win-loss record at home speaks for itself. Miller Park has been notoriously difficult for visiting teams, so when combined with the incredible home field advantage for the Brewers, that indicates a big advantage for the home team on this game. The moneyline doesn't have any value here, since the public has put way too much money on them already, but the runline presents lots of value at +150. My formulas show the Brewers winning this matchup by at least two points about 46% of the time. I would take the -1.5 RL on the Brewers at +130 or better. It's an easy decision at +150, which I found at several books. Unfortunately, there's no value to be found on the over/under. The line is set pretty well.

Cardinals @ Phillies

Yes, it's true that the Phillies are the favorites here, as well they should be. They really do have a strong advantage in this game. They have done very well at home this season, and Citizens Bank Park is really tough on visiting teams. Philly has struggled a bit against strong pitching, and Carpenter is a strong pitcher. But I still expect about 4 runs from them, while the Cards probably only put up 3 against Halladay. The problem with Philly here is that everyone thinks they're going to win. And everyone and their brother has put money on them. The line for the Phillies is way too optimistic. They are the favorite, but not that much of a favorite. With odds of +167 available for the Cards, they're worth the risk. I'd take them at +130 or better, maybe even +125 if I was feeling adventurous. The over/under isn't even close to a value play, though. They've got the line right where it should be, and there's no money to be made for us. Just take the moneyline on the Cards.

[BennyFang]

I have Cards +350 for the series. Does value go out the window here? Make a play on Philly?

[toddorts]

I have Cards +350 for the series. Does value go out the window here? Make a play on Philly?

Well, since this is game 5 of a division series, having the Cards at +350 for the series is the same as if you would be able to get the Cards at +350 for the game. In other words, incredible value. Making a play on Philly is a great way to hedge your bet on the series if you're feeling uncomfortable with it, but make sure to bet the same number of units (or less) on the Philly play as you did on the series play. Betting more units starts to destroy the value on the series play, and you don't want to do that.

Personally, I never hedge my bets. Over the long run, if you're a skilled capper, then it just dampens profits. I didn't cap the series before it started, so I don't know if +350 was good value when you made the wager, but it's definitely incredible value now in game 5, so I'd let it ride without any hedging.

[toddorts]

Another incredible day in baseball! A great finish to the Brewers/D-Backs series. I missed the Phillies game because I was flying again, but I happened to be flying into Philadelphia, and saw the stadium emptying out on approach. Good news was waiting for me on the ground. Once again, went 1-1 for the day, +0.67 units.

Record:

13-11-1
54.2%
+3.17 units

[toddorts]

Tonight's game should be interesting. Hell, the rest of the postseason will be interesting! Today's picks:

Tigers @ RANGERS +102
Tigers @ Rangers OVER 7.5 -115

Tigers @ Rangers

The pitching in this game would make it seem like an easy call on first glance. After all, there can be little doubt that Verlander is a better pitcher than Wilson. But it isn't all about the pitching. As good as Verlander is, Wilson isn't exactly bad, either. Pitching isn't what is going to decide the outcome of this game. No, I think this matchup comes down to more of an offensive game. Both of these teams have had very powerful hitting against good pitching this season. But, when looking at the stats, the Rangers have done significantly better, with about 4.75 runs per innings played against good pitchers, while the Tigers have done only about 4. In my formulas, that 0.75 run delta is a huge difference. After factoring in the home field advantage (which isn't significant for the Rangers, but does add something), I calculate a line of -137 for the Rangers. At +102, this is an obvious choice.

On the total, I again see an easy choice. Despite the good pitching on both sides of this game, again, it comes down to offense. With both of these teams having great offensive records against strong pitching, I think we can expect at least 4-5 runs from both teams. This is especially true since Rangers Ballpark tends to produce higher scores than average. My formulas give the over a 63% probability.

[erkanua]

great write-up, thanks

and I also think there is a value on Rangers side for the series price at -140 which will be cleared away tomorrow if Texas beats Verlander tonight..

[toddorts]

Well, basically a break-even day. Was able to catch the last few innings of the game, and it seemed like a good one. The record for the day was 1-1, +0.02 units.

Record:

14-12-1
53.8%
+3.19 units

[toddorts]

Plays for both games for today:

Cardinals @ BREWERS RL -1.5 +160
TIGERS @ Rangers +125
Tigers @ Rangers OVER 9 -105

Cardinals @ Brewers

This is a great pitching contest in Milwaukee today. Both Greinke and Garcia are a force to be reckoned with. Both teams have done relatively well this season against good pitching. What gives the Brewers the lead here is their homefield advantage, which is significant. The Brewers have scored 11% more runs at home than they have overall this season. By contrast, Miller Park punishes visiting teams, suppressing scoring by about 20% when compared to league averages. That turns this tight contest into a definite advantage for the Brewers. My formulas have them winning this game by at least 2 runs about 43% of the time, which gives the runline good value at +160. I'd take the -1.5 RL at +140 or better. Most books are offering at least +150. On the total, I'm not seeing any value here. Both teams are going to score between 3 and 4 runs, most likely, making it a toss-up between the over and under at 7.5. I'm passing on the total.

Tigers @ Rangers

Well, this is certainly no pitching contest like the above game. Holland's season has been an improvement on his career numbers, but he's still nothing to write home about. Scherzer has been the exact opposite, seeing his stats this season depress his career numbers. His ERA has taken a huge hit. His season ERA has been 4.43, compared to a career ERA of 3.92. His WHIP hasn't taken quite such a hit, but it's still not good at 1.35 for the season. With Rangers Ballpark being more of a hitter's field, this aims to be a high scoring game. Many people are giving the Rangers too much credit for the homefield advantage, as well as giving them too much credit for Scherzer's numbers being worse than Holland's. That's what's driving this line where it is. My calculations still give the Tigers the advantage in this matchup, though. Although Holland has been doing better than Scherzer, they're both just average pitchers, and the contest won't be determined by pitching. This will be a hitter's game, and that's where Detroit has the advantage. Against average pitching, Detroit has managed to average an incredible 5.5 runs per 9 innings of play this season. Only the Yankees did slightly better. Rangers Ballpark can improve upon that number, although that is offset by the Rangers' homefield advantage. In the end, the Tigers should win this game by about a run. I calculated my own line at Tigers -130. Lots of value here. On the total, there is a good play here as well. The Tigers should score about 6 runs here, and the Rangers about 5. The total is posted at 9, and I calculate an approximate 62% probability of the total going over that. With the added safety of a push at 9, this is a great play.

[toddorts]

Well, despite the postponing of the second game, today was a good day. The RL paid well for the Brewers after a good game. Today's record was 1-0, +1.6 units.

Record:

15-12-1
55.6%
+4.79 units

[toddorts]

Really liking today's lines. I see lots of value here. Hopefully we can actually make it through a game without a rain delay! Today's picks:

TIGERS @ Rangers +137
Tigers @ Rangers OVER 9 -110
Cardinals @ BREWERS RL -1.5 +160

Tigers @ Rangers

Same game as yesterday, better odds. Really not much more I can say on this one. Take a look at the write-up I did for yesterday's game before it was postponed. I like this play even better at +137. On the over, not quite as good today since I couldn't find a -105, but it's still very good value at -110.

Cardinals @ Brewers

This really isn't a fair contest in the slightest. Jackson just doesn't compare to Marcum, and the Brewers have better bats, plus they're at home where they are almost unbeatable. But, the moneyline doesn't have a whole lot of value at -134. Don't get me wrong, there is value there, as my line was calculated at -150, but it's not a whole lot of value when you compare it to what the RL is offering. This runline is a freakin' steal at +160. My calculations put the real no-vig line at +100 for a -1.5 RL on the Brewers. All books seem to be offering +150 or better, and I found a +160. With Jackson on the mound for the Cards, the Brewers are going to light them up. I'm looking for about 5-6 runs for the Brew Crew. With the Cards going up against Marcum, on the other hand, they're really going to struggle. They'll pull off 3-4 runs, most likely. On the total, there is no value here. Too much like gambling, so I'm passing. The play here is on the RL if you're looking for great value, and on the ML if you want more safety for a little less value.

[Adm. Cowpollock]

I think you're giving Marcum too much credit. Giving up 14 ERs in his last 9.1 IP signals a risk that something might be wrong, wrist pain, elbow pain, who knows. Plus, September was his worst month of the season by a large margin. Wouldn't be surprised to see the Cards spank him.

And Jackson -- he's schooled the Brewers in his last two starts against them. 13 IP 2.08 ERA 2 BBs. Of course, he is Edwin Jackson and can blow up spectacularly any time, but I thought he looked pretty damn strong in his start last week vs. PHI. Just my two cents bud, good luck!

[toddorts]

Understand what you're saying, but I'm a firm believer that using short-term stats to handicap baseball is a surefire way to lose money over the long haul. His poor performance in a game (or even a month) could be indicative of something being wrong, or it could just be a short-term anomaly. More times than not, it's the latter.

[toddorts]

Well, that day sucked. Could've been worse, I guess. Still hit the over with the first postseason grand slam in MLB history. Amazing. At the end of the day, went 1-2, -1.09 units.

Record:

16-14-1
53.3%
+3.7 units

[toddorts]

Only one game today, but two plays for it:

Rangers @ TIGERS RL -1.5 +155
Rangers @ Tigers OVER 8.5 -120

Rangers @ Tigers

Fister did good for me his last time on the mound, and I'm expecting it again today. He's definitely the better pitcher than Lewis, and the Tigers have the homefield advantage for the first time in this series. They need it at 0-2, and I'm sure that they're itching for a win. The Detroit fans will be there in force, and they'll be loud. They'll win this matchup by at least 2 points about 43% of the time, so it's a decent value on the RL at +155. I see no value at all on the moneyline with it not moving from about -125. I'm taking the RL. The total has improved since last night, when I was mostly seeing the books offer it at 9. It wasn't a great value there, but it's pretty good at 8.5. I give it a 62% probability of going over. I wish I could find a -110, or even a -115, but -120 still isn't bad.

[toddorts]

I thought I might get the over after the Tigers really caught on fire and got it up to 5 runs, but it wasn't to be. Still, up for the day because of the RL. Ended up at 1-1, +0.55 units.

Record:

17-15-1
53.1%
+4.25 units

[toddorts]

Harrison against Porcello? Really? There should be a law against pitching this bad in postseason baseball. Oh well, should make for a fun high-scoring game. Today's picks:

RANGERS @ Tigers RL -1.5 +130
Rangers @ Tigers OVER 9.5 +100
Brewers @ CARDINALS RL -1.5 +150

Rangers @ Tigers

I mean, seriously, this pitching really isn't up to postseason level baseball. Harrison isn't that bad, but he isn't good, either. Porcello, on the other hand, is just downright embarrassing. I know some people here defend him, but the guy's stats are just ugly to look at. A season ERA of 4.75 with a WHIP of 1.41. That could be forgiven if it was just a bad season, but the guy is bad long-term as well. His career ERA is 4.54, with a career whip of 1.38. Why the hell is this guy starting in a playoff game, let alone an important playoff game where you're down 2-1 in the series? I'd rather pitch Verlander again and ruin the guy's arm than pitch this embarrassment. Ok, enough of my Porcello hate. You could really take either the runline or moneyline in this game. Both have similar value at most books right now. I found the RL to be just a slightly better value at +130, so I went with that, but nothing wrong with taking the ML at anything -130 or better. On the total, because of the truly horrendous pitching in this game from Porcello, and the mediocre pitching from Harrison, I think the over on this one is as close to a sure thing as you're likely to find on totals in postseason baseball. My formulas give it a 67% probability of going over. They could hurt it if they pull Porcello really early, but there's enough value here to still make it a very safe bet, in my opinion. I'm looking for a score of about 7-5 in this game.

Brewers @ Cardinals

Alright, this should be a much closer game. Really looking forward to it. We have two pretty good pitchers in Gallardo and Carpenter, and two teams that have very similar hitting numbers against good pitching. The Cardinals have had virtually no homefield advantage this season, with their scoring numbers almost identical at home when compared to on the road. The Cards have the slight advantage because their hitting numbers are just a bit better against a pitcher of Gallardo's caliber. The Brewers have also been pretty bad on the road this year, although I think that's probably just a statistical anomaly. In the end, I put this game pretty close. The moneyline has no value on the Cards, but there is value for the Brew Crew if you want to go that way. Personally, though, I find more value in the runline on the Cards. This aims to be a close game, but my numbers give the Cards about a 43% chance of winning by at least 2 runs. With the -1.5 RL being offered at +150, that's good value. I went with that, but a play on the ML for the Brewers at +140 also represents good value. Your call. On the total, I see no value at all. With these two pitchers, it isn't going to be a high scoring game, but both teams also have good hitting against good pitching, so it's not likely to be a game with a score of 2-1, either. I'm looking for a score of about 4-3 or 4-2. Too close to call with a posted total of 7. No money to be made here. I pass. The money here is the RL or ML.

[toddorts]

Great games today! I thought for sure I was going to go 0-3 towards the end, but then the Rangers pulled it out at the end and took care of the RL and OVER all in extra innings. Nice! Today's record was 2-1, +1.3 units. Things are going really well this postseason for me so far.

Record:

19-16-1
54.3%
+5.55 units

[toddorts]

I'm lovin' the dogs today! Have to fly tonight, so I'll probably miss the Brewers game, but I should be able to watch the Rangers game. Looking forward to a good game. Today's picks:

RANGERS @ Tigers +139
Rangers @ Tigers OVER 7 -105
BREWERS @ Cardinals +125

Rangers @ Tigers

I just want to take a moment to thank the Verlander groupies who have driven this line to ridiculous levels. The Rangers being +139 underdogs with Wilson on the mound is absolutely absurd. I don't care how good you think think Verlander is (and I agree that he's really good), he's not good enough to shut down the bats of one of the best offensive teams in the league. The Rangers have averaged 4.8 runs per 9 innings of play against strong pitching this season. The Tigers have only managed 4.0, which is still pretty good, but the offensive advantage here goes to the Rangers. Some people are going to scream homefield advantage, but the numbers just don't bear it out. The Tigers have only done slightly better at producing runs at home this season than they have on the road. It's not near enough to make the difference in this game. The Tigers need to hope for a lackluster performance from Wilson, or the performance of his life from Verlander. Either of those possibilities are remote, so the bet here is clear on the Rangers moneyline. They're practically throwing money at you at +139 (found that at Bodog, most are offering +130 to +135). I also think there is value here on the over. Although both of these guys are good pitchers, as I mentioned above, both of these teams also have strong offense. The Verlander groupies have driven this total down to 7, and that creates lots of value. I give it a 61% chance of going over.

Brewers @ Cardinals

This play isn't as obvious as the Rangers play, but it's still clear value. Much like Detroit, the Cardinals have shown little in the way of homefield advantage this year. The pitchers on both sides are basically evenly matched. Once again, this will come down to which team has the better bats. That honor goes to the Brew Crew. Yes, it's true that they haven't had the best record on the road this year, but as I've said before here, I think that's a statistical anomaly. I'm looking at their overall hitting performance, and they have the advantage over the Cards. Like I said, it's not as clear as the Rangers game, but my formulas do show the Brewers winning this matchup about 52.5% of the time. The books are all offering about +125 on them, so that's an easy choice. On the total, I see no value. The Brewers are likely to score between 4 and 5 runs, and the Cards between 3 and 4. It really could go either way. If you can find a 9 somewhere (without buying the 1/2 point), then I'd probably take the under, but not at 8.5. Too much like spinning the roulette wheel for my taste.

[BennyFang]

With you 100% today on the sides. I just wrote this in LBs thread:
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I tend to agree here and do believe there is a momentum element, especially with regard to the bats. The Cardinals bats got shut down for 7 innings last night. One of the main reasons they did is because LaRussa continues to stubbornly bat Holliday clean up. He offers no protection for Pujols but Roenicke continues to not pitch around Pujols, makes no sense. The Cards have been winning despite Holliday in the 4 hole. He did get a couple of cheap hits in Milwaukee but face it, in his current health status, he is the batting equivalent of the prototypical weak hitting shortstop. I think LaRussa will have him back in cleanup tonight and the Brewers will finally give in and not give Pujols much to hit, put him on and let Holliday kill the rally. Lohse is due for a regression but you never know. The back end of the Cards bullpen all pitched last night....advantage Brewers.

I think the series goes 7 but it's the Brewers turn tonight.....BOL all.
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I think your approach to the first game is spot on as well. Staying off the total.

I don't always agree with your angles but I have to say that your explanations are thorough and substantial....always food for thought.

Let's get it......at least we're up $$ in the event of a split!

BOL

[toddorts]

Thanks, Benny! GL to you, too!