[InTheRed]

A Tale of Two Cities
Arizona & Kansas City


Background: I was born and raised in the NYC area; I went to college in Boston. I have been saturated and inundated with essentially five teams for the majority of my life. BOS, NYY, NYM, PHI, ATL. About 90% of every friend I’ve ever known has liked one of those five teams. I’ve heard and witnessed both sides of every Rivalry these teams have produced. I’ve actively rooted and been a fan of 3 of these teams. But mainly I can’t profitably bet on any of these teams. The news and information is just to skewed, especially with my personal mindset gets involved.

Project: Instead of going into each day and looking at matchups, looking for value, etc., this project will take me on a journey through two different organizations for the entire season. To judgmentally and effectively decode a season through these two teams without having emotional or social connections to distract and distort a logical view.

Goal: A decision will be made on every game the two teams play. O/u, RL, ML, 5 inning, you name it. At least one play will be made on every game that these two teams will play. With no emotional connection to the teams, cities, or players, the picks will be solely based on facts and numbers. Hopefully, a small write-up will come with each pick, however when real life calls, the write-ups will suffer.

Why these teams: I aimed to pick two teams that have the least amount going for them, while not completely being a god awful team, which eliminates Pitt and Seattle. A team from each league was picked to minimize crossover, only 1 interleague series is played in June. Another deciding factor was the limiting the amount of times these teams play those that cloud judgment, which eliminated all teams from the NL and AL East. Initially I was looking at Minn and either SF or LA, but these teams are just too public and have that minor cloudiness built into them. Outside of Arizona and the Kansas City Metro area, no one cares about these two teams; they are simply just there.




Only KC plays tomorrow. Should have that first pick a little later tonight or early AM tomorrow.

[InTheRed]

Opening day is here.

I have a lean for KC although the numbers do not support it whatsoever. Weaver should have a solid start and Hochevar should be slightly below avg in his start.

I'm going to go with the OVER in this one. I think Hochevar is going to get into a little bit of trouble and give up at least 4 in his start. Weaver isn't going to be perfect but any runs on him will be bonus pts. The money is made with the pens of both teams


PLAY: LAA/KC OVER 8.5 (EVEN) - 1 unit

[InTheRed]

5 LOB in the last 2 innings by KC, 2 by LAA. Weaver pitched better than expected. Tough loss, was on the right side in my mind.

0-1 -1 Unit
KC - 0-1 -1 Unit
ARI - 0-0

[mlb]

good luck with this challenge man!

[InTheRed]

Opening Day for the D'backs. So here we go.

PLAY: UNDER 8.5(-115) - 1 Unit
PLAY: Arizona +190 - 1 Unit

Here's why. Kennedy has played well against COL in his career. Lower than his avg ERA and his strikeouts are high. 8K per 9. Jimenez was one of the top pitchers in the league last year and is better at home.

I've got this game being a 2-1 game by the time the pen comes in. I also think that neither pitcher will factor in the decision.

Stay tuned for the KC game plays.

[InTheRed]

As we watch the Dbacks in extra its time to head to KC for game two of the series.

This game is simple in my mind. Dan Haren is filthy against KC and extremely good in Kauffmann Stadium. 3-0 in 4 starts with a 1.93 ERA. 8K per 9. 6.25 K/BB.

Jeff Francis is absolutely awful in April.

PLAY: LAA -139 - 2 Units

Let's hope the bullpen doesn't give this one away like they tried to yesterday.

[InTheRed]

Total - 1-2 -0.25 Units
KC - 0-1 -1 Unit
ARI - 1-1 +.75 units

Was right that neither starter was going to factor. Way wrong on the total. Big win in extra for the DBacks gets me positive on the day. Early start by LAA is very promising.

[InTheRed]

Total - 1-3 -3.03 Units
KC - 0-2 -3.78 Unit
ARI - 1-1 +.75 units

And no offense from LAA leads to a walk-off for KC. Was right about Haren, way wrong about Francis.

Tomorrow is a new day.

[goblue1988]

Francis was solid today. Tough break. Ka'aihue may be a poor mans Adam Dunn. Get 'em tomorrow.

[InTheRed]

Thanks to mlb and goblue for the well wishes.

KC time on Saturday. Couple of factors that you have to take into consideration as we head into this game. With the main one being the runs scored so far in the series.

Today's game will help with that factor.

Santana had a career year last year, dropping his ERA and getting a high in wins however its still high. Then you break him down. a 5 ERA on the road, a 4 ERA in April, a 5-4 record with a 4.45 ERA against KC, 5.13 ERA in day games, a 4 ERA in Kauffmann Stadium. All warning signs in a pitcher that should be much better than what this tells us.

Davies on the other hand is just bad all around. He's worse at home, average in April, average during the day and the worst stat of all, he's 14-21 with an 5.85 ERA at Kauffmann Stadium.

In today's game, you can pretty much expect one thing. RUNS, RUNS, RUNS.

PLAY: OVER 8.5 (-105) - 2 Units

If I had to pick a side, I'd actually go with KC in this one. But like the other games in this series, it'll come down to the bullpens, both of which suck, especially LAA so far. But for now its just a lean. No need to get crazy on game 3 of the season.

[InTheRed]

Not much to say about the Arizona game. Easy play in my mind.

Play: Colorado -157 - 1 Unit
Play: Colorado RL +125 - 1 Unit

[EXhoosier10]

I like the idea, but I wouldn't recommend forcing a bet on every game. Some games there just isn't value.

Good luck with this though.

[InTheRed]

There's always value somewhere Hoosier. Just got to find it. Hopefully by May-June I'll have watched enough and read enough to get "inside the game" and find something that's off.

Total - 4-2 +4 Units
KC - 1-1 +1 Unit
ARI - 3-1 +3 units

Great day yesterday, 3-0. Hopefully we can carry it into today and get a good run going here.

For today we answer a simple question for both cities. Can they actually win the first series of the season? The answer is yes.

In the KC game, you have two veteran pitchers battling it out. However, the term Veteran really just means they're old. There's no real clutch in either pitcher and the game seems evenly matched when you look at the pitchers numbers.

Yesterday the bats came alive for both teams and the over just barely hit. These pitchers should continue the trend today. I can see it, but so does Vegas. A 10 O/u. Too high for my blood.

But KC has played very well in this series, I've watched every pitch of it and can see the edge here for KC. Also right now the Angels bullpen could very well be the worst in the majors this year. Until they show me otherwise, I'm betting against it.

PLAY: Kansas City -108 - 2 Units

In the Arizona series, Joe Saunders is the key to this game. It all depends on which Joe Saunders shows up. If the 2010 one shows, this game could get ugly. But if the 08-09 one shows, this game is in the bag. Regardless, the numbers support Saunders and the Dbacks in this game.

He's good in the day, on the road. His April numbers are filthy. The only negative sign for him is that in his only game in Colorado, he got rocked. But again, that was 2010 Saunders.

Chacin on the other side is untested, there's not much on him as he's only been around for a season or so. However, his numbers are good, especially in this match up.

What I do love in this game is that Vegas is taking into account Colorado. The O/u in my eyes is off by a run and a half. This under should be easy, especially if both pitchers can last.

PLAY: Arizona +168 - 1 Unit
PLAY: UNDER 9.5 (-105) - 2 Units

[InTheRed]

Total - 5-2 +6 Units
KC - 2-1 +3 Unit
ARI - 3-1 +3 units

Snowed in Colorado and a meltdown in Kansas City. A little luck and an awful bullpen gets me an extra innings win for the Royals. That's 3 wins in their last at bat. Either LAA's pen is really that bad or we could have some Cardiac Kids in KC this year.

My KC plays will be up this afternoon.

[jorge1]

InTheRed,

Hey man, i found your thread interesting...its a good idea to focus on a conference, or a division, or a team or two...definitely.

You are right about edge...there is ALWAYS an edge, just DIFFERENT points of views...if you think about it, in the end, most games are decided by INTANGIABLES, and if you can figure those out, you will be in good shape...THAT will be your edge through the season...finding the intangiables...and as the season rolls on and you keep up with your teams, you will DEFINETELY have a good feel for them..

one thing to think of is that a division is sometimes a better thing to focus on because you can have a good feel for match ups...if you only look at your teams then when they face another team, SURE you can cap the match up, but usually its better when you keep up with them...

example, I keep up with DETROIT, RAYS, REDS, and STL ALOT! not only those, but i do keep up with them..if you ask me about teams out west, such as SFO, SDG, and OAK, or SEA im clueless...or so ive been int he past...


ill surely come in and look for insight on these games and such...ONE thing i recommend is this...look at team totals...usually they dont fluctuate TOO much...they steadily rise and steadily taper down during the season...ive done sOOOOOO good that way..last year i followed STL on their GREAT streak, and then i called their HIDEOUS losing streak mid season...i sooooo banked...also with that crazy high scoring streak CINCY had...or the drought of runs in WSH games...

so look at team totals...i think once you can cap a team and their pitchers and bullpen, you can cap the TT EASILY! honestly its the easiest for me when i keep up...but trhough the season i have different strategies...early its dogs, middle is streaks, and after all star break i resort to races..which teams break down, and which shine...

bol...ill be comin by...stop by my shack any time to discuss games and talk $hit!

[InTheRed]

jorge, thanks for the input. My challenge was specifically at these two teams, but that doesn't mean I'm going blindly into the other teams. As the season progesses, I'll be almost on autopilot with these two teams and most of my work and research will be on the other teams so I can get a feel of what KC and ARI will be going up against.


As for today's game, ARI is the only one playing. And it's an early game. Pretty much everything mentioned a couple posts above applies for Saunders as he didn't play and the only change is that he's in Chi and not Col. But he sucked at Wrigley too.

Randy Wells is actually surprisingly good in April

PLAY: Arizona +148 - 1 Unit
PLAY: UNDER 9 (-105) - 2 Units

[InTheRed]

Total - 6-3 +7 Units
KC - 2-1 +3 Unit
ARI - 4-2 +4 units


The under cruised as expected and my stab at Arizona was teased until they fell apart in the 8th. I had that game capped closer to a -110/-100 so I saw the value in AZ. Just didn't pan out. Still was + on the day, so I "ain't" complaining.


With AZ playing the Cubs, we get day baseball until thursday. A nice distraction while at work.


Today's game is a tough one to cap. You have a Cubs starter making his first major league start. With AZ, you got a rookie with only a handful of starts himself. Got to love bad teams who have their 5 guys going at it.

Now this is a game that normally I'd stay away from, but this is a challenge that I've set up for myself here, and this is the first time I can get "inside" the game.

The Cubs bullpen is tired. They haven't had a day off yet and they needed 5 pitchers yesterday to get the job done. Marmol has pitched in three straight games. This is not the ideal time to have a reliever make his first major league start. He's not going to get them the 7+ innings they need.

On the other hand, Arizona had a day off due to snow on Sunday. They only used 3 relievers, and 2 of them only went 1/3 of an inning. They are rested. They will be able to handle any trouble or innings needed to make up for a rookie if he gets into trouble.

PLAY: Arizona +134 - 1 Unit
PLAY: OVER 9 (-125) - 2 Units

KC later on today...

[Bouzouki]

Very interesting. I like the write-ups, keep it up

[InTheRed]

Total - 7-4 +8 Units
KC - 2-1 +3 Unit
ARI - 5-3 +5 units

Another O/u for me in AZ. KC time.


Floyd making his debut this season for the white sox. Historically he's awful against KC and in Kauffmann. I see no reason for that to change.

Hochevar was decent on opening day but still gave up a handful of runs.

Tonight we find out if KC is for real or just lucky to face the Angels' bullpen.

PLAY: OVER 9 (EVEN) - 2 Units
PLAY: Kansas City +102 - 2 Units

[InTheRed]

Total - 9-4 +12 Units
KC - 4-1 +7 Unit
ARI - 5-3 +5 units


The Cardiac Kids do it again in Kansas City! 4 last at bat wins, 4 wins on the season.

3-1 on the day. Up 5 units on the day!

[InTheRed]

Two day games and a busy morning at work will lead to a very small write up today.

Arizona has been straight up dominated by Chicago for the last year or so. 8 straight wins. But does it continue today? No. Arizona has Galarraga making his NL debut today. The "near" perfect pitcher is lights out in April. LIGHTS OUT. Dempster was awful in his first start of the season. 6 earned in 6.2 IP to PITTSBURGH (first place).

The question becomes which Galarraga will we see? The perfect one or the one that got sent down at a point last summer.

PLAY: Arizona +145 - 1 Unit

Playing it safe in AZ today.


Kansas City

Francis had a great first start of the season. 7 IP 1 run. But historically he sucks in April. I'm banking on the first game being an abnormality. On the other side the Sox send out Buehrle. He's 1-0 on the season even with giving up 6 runs! But he's dominant against KC and in Kauffmann. He's also better during the day, which bodes well for this game as well.

PLAY: Chicago White Sox EVEN - 2 Units
PLAY: UNDER 8.5 (-105) - 1 Unit

[jorge1]

i like the white sox today...that under stinks to me but BOL to ya...about arizona, im on the opposite side...i think buehrle dominates ARI and yesterday they looked really confident with their win, but BOL to you! i would think of going ARIZONA tomorrow....

good luck man...great thread!

[InTheRed]

Jorge thanks for the pts.

Another winning day. After re-reading my write-up, I'm not quite sure why I was on the under. Made it seem more like an over. Oh well.

Total - 11-5 +14.4 Units
KC - 5-2 +7.95 Units
ARI - 6-3 +6.45 units

See everyone tomorrow. Let's keep the streak alive.

[InTheRed]

A day off by both teams and we're back.

KC time. Their first road trip of the season and they are coming off of an absolutely crushing loss in extra to Chicago. They were up 4 with 2 outs in the 9th and they lose. Tough loss, character builder. Had a lot of time to think about it. Not good.

Davies was decent in his first start of the season but historically he's been worse. And those numbers continue to be bad when you look at his numbers at Comerica. 2-3 5.35 ERA.

They head to Detroit for the Tigers home opener after a tough road trip against BAL and NYY. 2-4 on the road, and they're already behind the ball. An early season "Must Win" for them.

Scherzer actually has 1 of the 2 Tiger wins this season even though he had a 10.80 ERA from his first game of the season. But it was against the Yanks and it was 6 runs in 5 innings. Usually that'll get you a ND or a L, but somehow Scherzer had the run support needed to steal a win on that perfomance.

The good news for Detroit is that Scherzer is pretty damn good against KC. His ERA is better than average against them. He's great at Comerica. All signs that he'll be lowering his ERA today and could continue to lead the league in wins... Did I really just type that?

Scherzer's last start against KC was last Sept. 7 2/3 scoreless innings of work, 2 hits, 8 strikeouts. Career, he's 2-2 2.73 ERA against KC.

PLAY: Detroit Tigers RL +120 - 1 Unit
PLAY: Detroit Tigers -172 - 2 Units
PLAY: OVER 9 (+105) - 2 Units

[jorge1]

good chit..love the over..might take tigers RL now that i see your side..i was kinda leanin KC but if the KC expert himself is playin against them... ??? lol

[InTheRed]

Total - 13-6 +15.6 Units
KC - 7-3 +9.15 Units
ARI - 6-3 +6.45 units

DET with the easy win. Thought the over was the right side, still do. There was a 3 run HR that the wind blew back into play. Dem the breaks.

Off to Arizona for opening night.


Kennedy gets his 2nd start of the season as the ace of the Dbacks. His first start of the season was a decent, but average start in a no decision. Not much to work off of with him vs. Cincy.

For Cincy, Travis Wood gets the start and was downright filthy in his first start of the season. Further he's been dominate in Arizona and against the Dbacks.


PLAY: Cincinnati Reds RL +140 - 1 Unit
PLAY: Cincinnati Reds -116 - 2 Units
PLAY: UNDER 9 (-110) - 1 Unit
PLAY: UNDER 5 (-120) 5 inning - 1/2 Unit

[blackeyeshamus]

wow! flabbergasted by the brilliance of the strategy, man.
I know exactly what you mean, because I'm from portland, maine:
born and raised red sox fan for life... and I have a very difficult time
maintaining any kind of objectivity where they are concerned.
lost five games straight to start the season, and I finally decided
leave 'em alone for a while. I have lived in many major cities
including new york, seattle, san francisco, boston, and now miami...
so I follow many teams. good fortune put me on the tigers early,
but I am leaning toward the reds later tonight. thanks for posting
a thoughtful thread with some academic merit! excellent work.

[InTheRed]

Total - 14-9 +11.68 Units
KC - 7-3 +9.15 Units
ARI - 7-6 +2.53 units


Off to KC where there’s better luck…

Phil Coke makes his first start of the season for DET. He’s made two appearances this season, both against the Yanks and both ugly appearances. I guess you could say that’s a “chicken or an egg” situation. Was he ugly because he was playing the Yanks? Or was it because he was ugly? Hard to say. What is easy to say is that Phil Coke is hardly a starter. 1 start in his career and he only went 1.2 innings. He’s never pitched more than 2 innings in a game in his career.

Further DET has used pretty much everyone in their pen over the last two games. 4 on Thurs. 4 on Fri. Not a good sign with a starter that should have endurance issues.

On the other side you got the Veteran Bruce Chen. Now before his last start I mentioned that “veteran” was used solely because of longevity. It’s still true. His first start of the season was a ND that went 5 innings giving up 5 runs. An ERA of 9.00 is hardly a good start for him. But those 5 runs came off of 3 HRs, so there is a glimmer of hope if he can keep the ball down today.

Chen’s last five against DET is less than stellar. He’s 2-1 with a 6.93 ERA. But he never gave up more than 5 in any start, he just never made it to the 7th inning in any of those games. When he plays at Comerica, the numbers get even worse. Career he’s 1-3 with a 7.20 ERA, in 6 games/4 starts. The most telling number is that he’s given up 7 HRs in those games at Comerica. That’s a ton of HRs for a field that had to pull in the centerfield wall…

Today’s game is a tough one to pick a side in. You have an unknown in Coke, who’s essentially making his first start ever. DET is most likely going to rely on the bullpen today, which is tired. On the other hand, you have Chen you loves Home Runs, the only problem with that is he’s a pitcher. However, that’s is main downfall in my eyes and that can be something controlled.

PLAY: OVER 9.5 (EVEN) – 2 Units *This could be a higher bet, it’s been the strongest play of the season in my eyes.
PLAY: Kansas City +153 – 1 Unit

[InTheRed]

Total - 15-10 +11.21 Units
KC - 8-4 +8.68 Units
ARI - 7-6 +2.53 units

Who knew Chen would be lights out??? Oh well. Off to ARI

No write up tonight.

PLAY: Cincinnati Reds -103 - 2 Units

Like Arroyo at that value. Only reason.

[InTheRed]

Total - 16-10 +13.21 Units
KC - 8-4 +8.68 Units
ARI - 8-6 +4.53 Units


Today's KC game has a little bit of personal knowledge/feeling involved. Porcello for DET went to my high school and I have backed him his entire career.

With that said, I do like the value for KC here.

Just wanted to include that warning.

PLAY: Kansas City +150 - 1 Unit

[InTheRed]

KC looking good.

ARI time. No write-up again. Small play again.

PLAY: Arizona Diamondbacks +107 - 1 Unit

[InTheRed]

Total - 18-10 +15.78 Units
KC - 9-4 +10.18 Units
ARI - 9-6 +5.6 Units

Two for two on Sunday, both of which I wasn't confident on. Bonus.

Only Arizona tonight...

The last time these two team played, way back in June of 2010, Barry Enright was the pitcher for Arizona. 5 innings later he was gone, but with that came 4 hits, 1 run, 5 Ks and a win for Arizona. Can tonight be a repeat performance?

There is so little on each pitcher in this game, its hard to determine the edge here. Enright was solid in his first and only start against St. Louis, but he's a career 6-7 with a 3.91 ERA.

Kyle McClellan has the ball for the Cards and again, not much here either. He's never played Arizona. He's only made 1 career start, which was a very solid start against Pitt last week, going 6 innings giving up 6 hits, 2 runs but striking out 7. His career numbers are not as good going 7-15 with a 3.22 ERA, but that was in relief.

So where is the edge in this game? You got to look at hitting. Arizona is 4th in the league for hitting, while St. Louis is off to an awful start way down in 24th. One would say that they will probably be reversed by the end of the season. But for now, we're not there yet.

With Arizona home and the dog, you got to see some value there in this game. Granted, they are only +105 but the key there is the +. This game could very well be flipped, if not -110/-110, but the public has weighed in. Which is good enough for me.

PLAY: Arizona Diamondbacks +105 - 2 Units
PLAY: UNDER 10 (-105) - 3 Units

[InTheRed]

Total - 18-11-1 +13.78 Units
KC - 9-4 +10.18 Units
ARI - 9-7-1 +3.6 Units

Back to the full slate of games tonight.

KC first.

So far, I've bet against KC both times Jeff Francis started. My reasoning was because he was awful in April. Well times they are a changin'. He's pitched 13 2/3 innings and has an ERA of 1.98. He's only let in 3 runs and 2 home runs. Can someone get him some run support. Francis has been pitching like the league's best. But he has no wins to show for it.

I see no reason why this would change tonight. Minn is struggling. 3 losing series to start the season, and only 1 game where they scored more than 4 runs, and that game they needed the 10th to get run # 5.

I'm going with the hot pitcher against the sleeping offense. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. What happens if I'm fooled a third time???

PLAY: Kansas City +130 - 2 Units

I'll try to get the ARI play up soon.

[InTheRed]

Not much time here for a write-up.

Carpenter has been pretty lights out this season so far. Has a loss but got it by only allowing 2 runs, 1 earned.... to the Bucs! Tough loss. Other start he lets in 2 runs and gets a ND. Should be 2-0 like Francis in KC.

Nuff said for this game.

PLAY: St. Louis Cardinals -155 - 2 Units
PLAY: St. Louis Cardinals RL (EVEN) - 1 Unit
PLAY: UNDER 9 (-115) - 2 Units

[InTheRed]

Total - 18-15-1 +5.38 Units
KC - 9-5 +8.18 Units
ARI - 9-10-1 -2.8 Units

Wow. Yesterday sucked. I couldn’t have been more wrong in the Arizona game. Just wow. KC could have gone either way, and a win there would have salvaged the day to a point.

New day…. Day game in KC.

Davies on the mound for KC and his start to the season is pretty much right where his career has been. 9 runs in 9 innings. Career his ERA is 5.53. Any way you break him down his runs are in the 5 range. It will be safe to say you can expect just about the same in this start again today.

Liriano gets the ball for Minn. A tough start for the Twins, but with a win last night in extra, they could be turning this around. They get a much worse pitcher in Davies than they did last night, however they have a question mark in Liriano. Will he be like 2010 and his early career? Or is the 2009 Liriano poised to make a reappearance? So far this season he’s given up 4 runs in both of his starts, one against the Yanks. As I said yesterday, the Twins have yet to give the run support they’ve needed. Today I feel it’ll change.

PLAY: Minnesota Twins –185 – 1 Unit
PLAY: OVER 8.5 (-110) – 2 Units
PLAY: OVER 4.5 (-115) 5 inning. – 1 Unit