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Best bets today from around the NBA.
Best bets today from around the NBA.

Scoring props are highlighted significantly on a busy slate for our Saturday NBA player props and best bets as we make our picks based on the best NBA odds.

With only two games scheduled for Sunday, the Association has packed 11 games into the schedule on the eve of the Super Bowl. We have four player prop picks ready.

Cam Thomas has been lighting up the scoreboard recently, and he’ll look to stay hot when the Brooklyn Nets host the San Antonio Spurs at Barclays Center. Deni Avdija came alive for the shorthanded Washington Wizards on Friday night, and we’re banking on him keeping the momentum going as the equally shorthanded Philadelphia 76ers visit the nation’s capital.

Jalen Green and the Houston Rockets head east to face the Atlanta Hawks and a generous defense, and Kevin Durant will face his former team as the Phoenix Suns face the Golden State Warriors at Chase Center. 

Here are our NBA player props and best bets for Saturday (NBA picks based on odds via our best NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Saturday’s NBA schedule and odds

(Odds via DraftKings)

  • Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks | Spread: Thunder -2.5 | Total: 243
  • Detroit Pistons vs. Los Angeles Clippers | Spread: Clippers -16 | Total: 235
  • San Antonio Spurs vs. Brooklyn Nets | Spread: Nets -6 | Total: 231
  • Memphis Grizzlies vs. Charlotte Hornets | Spread: Grizzlies -4 | Total: 220
  • Chicago Bulls vs. Orlando Magic | Spread: Magic -4.5 | Total: 218.5
  • Philadelphia 76ers vs. Washington Wizards | Spread: 76ers -4.5 | Total: 237
  • Houston Rockets vs. Atlanta Hawks | Spread: Hawks -4.5 | Total: 241.5
  • Indiana Pacers vs. New York Knicks | Spread: Pacers -4.5 | Total: 233.5
  • Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Toronto Raptors | Spread: Cavaliers -8 | Total: 228.5
  • Phoenix Suns vs. Golden State Warriors | Spread: Suns -1.5 | Total: 239
  • New Orleans Pelicans vs. Portland Trail Blazers | Spread: Pelicans -7 | Total: 224

Saturday’s NBA best bets

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Saturday’s NBA player props

Cam Thomas Over 24.5 points vs. Spurs (+110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

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Thomas’ points prop is set at 22.5, but it carries far too much juice for our liking. We can do better, and we’ll take it up to 24.5 for more profitable odds. Thomas has averaged 25.4 points and 2.3 3-pointers on 41% shooting from downtown over his last seven games in the starting five, and he’s averaged 24.5 points in his last 11 overall.

The Spurs allow the fifth most points to opponents (120.9), and they’re bad at defending the long ball. San Antonio allows the seventh most 3-pointers overall (13.6) and the fifth most on the road (14.3). The team also allows opponents to hit 38.5% of their 3-point attempts (ninth most), including 39.9% on the road (second most).

Thomas averages 22 points per game at home compared to 20.6 on the road, and he’s cashed this in six of his last 11 games.

Give us the Over!

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Deni Avdija Over 28.5 points+rebounds+assists vs. 76ers (-104 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

The Wizards are down bad in the frontcourt right now. Daniel Gafford was traded to the Dallas Mavericks on Thursday, and Marvin Bagley III has missed three straight games due to  a back injury. With no help at center, Avdija took on a larger role in Washington’s frontcourt on Friday, delivering 24 points and 11 rebounds against the Boston Celtics on the road.

Avdija and Co. are back at home for the second game of a back-to-back set, and they face a Philly team that’s missing the reigning MVP Joel Embiid and his elite interior defense. The Sixers have surrendered 127 points per game across their last three (fourth most) and 57.3 rebounds per game (most). Avdija should have no problem getting over the mark on Saturday.

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Jalen Green Over 20.5 points vs. Hawks (-105 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

As mentioned in another Best Bets article this week, you bet your guards against the Hawks. Atlanta’s defense has been tremendously bad as of late, and Green should have no problem cashing this for us. The Hawks allow the second most points per game overall (123.9) and the most points per game at home (125.8).

On the season, Green is averaging just 18.2 points on 41.1% shooting, but Atlanta allows the third-highest shooting percentage overall (50.2) and the highest at home (50.6). 

This is a favorable matchup for him to get right after scoring fewer than 10 points in two of his last three outings. Fred VanVleet is sidelined again, and Green has averaged 19.8 in four games with FVV out of the line, cashing this prop twice. Though his production has been erratic, Green has averaged 23.1 points per game across his last nine contests, and this line is set far too low.

We’ll take the Over with four-star confidence.

Kevin Durant Over 25.5 points vs. Warriors (-111 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

We’re not going to hype the revenge narrative up too much, but Durant should have some extra motivation while playing against his former team. Over his last five games, KD has averaged 29 points, hitting this mark in four of them. That includes two games on the road. On the season, he’s scored at least 26 points in 33 of 45 contests.

Durant's averaging 29 points per game against Pacific Division opponents, and he put up 32 and 18 points in two matchups with Golden State this season. The Warriors’ defense is far from elite, as the team has surrendered the 11th most points per game overall (117.9) and the ninth most at home (119).

Durant is averaging 28.4 points per game this season, so he doesn’t even have to be average to hit this prop. We’re guessing he’ll be motivated while playing in San Francisco, so we’ll take the Over.

NBA best bets made Saturday at 7 a.m. ET.

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