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New York Yankees pitcher Nestor Cortes pitches as we look at our MLB Best Bets for Friday, July 5.
New York Yankees pitcher Nestor Cortes pitches against the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre. Photo by: Kevin Sousa/USA TODAY Sports.

Coming off a Fourth of July holiday that included series finales across the full slate, fifteen new series begin Friday around Major League Baseball, and we have you covered with our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Friday based on the best MLB odds.

Friday’s MLB action begins at 2:20 p.m. ET from Wrigley Field as the Los Angeles Angels visit the Chicago Cubs. The Cubs are starting the day in last place in the NL Central and are on pace to finish last in the division for the first time since 2014.

However, the first of our four MLB player props wagers comes from arguably the biggest rivalry in the sport, as the New York Yankees host the Boston Red Sox at 7:05 p.m. ET.

Every division race in the American League has six or fewer games separating first and second place, while every National League first-place team has at least a six-game lead. What will the standings look like at the day’s end?

Friday’s MLB expert picks

MLB picks based on odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

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MLB player props

Nestor Cortes Under 2.5 earned runs ⭐⭐⭐⭐

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
Odds-155N/A-160N/A-155

Game info: Red Sox vs. Yankees | Moneyline: Red Sox (-140 via bet365) | Total: 8.5 via bet365 | Start time: 7:05 p.m. ET

Yankees southpaw Cortes has some of the most drastic home/road splits of any starting pitcher in baseball. He has a 1.84 ERA, a 57:6 K:BB ratio, and a .195 OBA in nine home starts, while his ERA inflates to 5.63 with a 41:13 K:BB ratio and a .295 OBA in nine road starts. 

Though it came back in 2022, Cortes held the Red Sox scoreless over six innings in his lone home start against them, and he has not lost to Boston in ten career appearances (four starts). He will have to be sharp once again as he opposes Cy Young odds contender Tanner Houck.

Though the Red Sox rank in the top five in wOBA and BABIP against southpaws in road games since the calendar turned to June, they were just held to two runs over six innings in a game started by Miami Marlins’ lefty Trevor Rogers, who is 1-9 this season.

This confident four-star play returns $16.45 on a $10 winning wager.

Best odds: -155 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 60.78%

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Trea Turner Over 0.5 runs ⭐⭐⭐

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
Odds+115-110+115N/A+120

Game info: Phillies vs. Braves | Moneyline: Braves (-150 via bet365) | Total: 7.5 via bet365 | Start time: 7:20 p.m. ET

As the Phillies press on without sluggers Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, more of the offensive load must be carried by the team’s other two All-Star infielders, Turner and Alec Bohm. Turner has been outstanding leading the decimated lineup of late, as he entered Thursday slashing .423/.444/.769 over the previous seven days.

Turner has had great success in his career against Atlanta Braves lefty Max Fried, going 11-for-31 with three walks and a .928 OPS. And with runs figuring to be at a premium while facing Atlanta’s best healthy pitcher, look for Turner to be active on the basepaths, where he has been successful on 10 of 11 steal attempts this season. Turner has scored six runs in the last three games, and we are backing this wager with a three-star play for him to cross the plate again tonight. 

We benefit from the generous +120 odds at bet365, where a $10 wager would net $22 in returns, as the implied probability for Turner to score at least one run is as high as 52.38% at FanDuel.

Best odds: +120 via bet365 | Implied probability: 45.45%

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Bobby Witt Jr. Over 3.5 hits + runs + RBIs ⭐⭐⭐⭐

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
Odds-105N/AN/AN/A-110

Game info: Royals vs. Rockies | Moneyline: Royals (-180 via bet365) | Total: 10.5 via bet365 | Start time: 8:10 p.m. ET

Witt Jr. and the Royals begin a three-game series at the most hitter-friendly ballpark, Coors Field, and that has us excited to back his player props, especially with a lefty on the mound. 

Witt Jr. has mashed southpaws to the tune of a .321/.339/.500 slash line, and faces Kyle Freeland, who has allowed a .333 batting average and .922 to right-handed batters this season. Witt was on pace to score 125 runs this season before Wednesday’s two-run output, and the shortstop has produced a combination of three-plus runs, hits, and RBIs in five of the last six games.

Witt’s hits/runs/RBIs line should also become available at BetMGM later, but FanDuel and Caesars typically only have a batter’s individual statistics available if those are markets that are more attractive to you. While accumulating for or more hits, runs, and RBIs sounds like a tall task, DraftKings says Witt has a 51.22% implied probability of achieving that, and we are willing to back that with a $10 wager that would pay $19.52.

Best odds: -105 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 51.22%

Kevin Gausman Under 6.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐⭐

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
Odds+125+124+125N/A+128

Game info: Blue Jays vs. Mariners | Moneyline: Mariners (-150 via bet365) | Total: 7.5 via bet365 | Start time: 9:40 p.m. ET

Gausman has been a “Jekyll and Hyde” pitcher ever since the calendar turned to June, based on the quality of competition. Against teams currently worse than .500, Gausman has allowed just two earned runs in 26 1/3 innings spanning his last four starts. However, Gausman has been rocked for 35 runs over 36 2/3 innings over his last seven starts against teams .500 or better, and that 8.59 ERA has us worried against the first-place Mariners.

Seattle’s offense was scuffling, with just one game of more than three runs scored in its previous eight before Thursday’s seven-run outburst. That should give the Mariners confidence against Gausman, who is overvalued after allowing just a .198 OBA and .630 OPS in 81 at-bats to current Mariners hitters.

Gausman’s inability to show consistency against good teams is why we are enticed by bet365’s +128 odds, even though they represent a 43.86% implied probability. In addition, placing a $10 wager at bet365 returns $22.80, compared to the slightly less $22.40 with FanDuel’s +124 odds.    

Best odds: +128 via bet365 | Implied probability: 43.86%

MLB player props made Friday at 7:46 a.m. ET.

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