Rice vs. Memphis Prediction Tonight: Week 11 Picks & Odds
Even after a poor outing last week, the Memphis Tigers (7-2) look to get back on track when they host the Rice Owls (3-6) tonight at 9 p.m. ET (ESPN2).
Our Rice vs. Memphis prediction is taking advantage by backing the host Tigers at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium even after last week's upset loss to UTSA.
Here is our preview for tonight's game as part of our college football Week 11 predictions.
Rice vs. Memphis betting splits
The Tigers opened as high as -12.5 ahead of this matchup, but the line has moved all the way to -7.5 ahead of kickoff tonight.
That comes even with 70% of spread bets coming on Memphis, suggesting that sharp bettors are riding with Rice as a road underdog.
Best Rice vs. Memphis picks
College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: Memphis -7.5 (-115 via FanDuel) vs. Rice ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- My best bet: Seth Henigan Under 277.5 passing yards (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Rice vs. Memphis against the spread prediction: Week 11
Memphis to cover the spread: -7.5 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Rice vs. Memphis opening odds:
- Rice: +10.5 (-110)
- Memphis: -10.5 (-110)
After Memphis (7-2) endured a surprising loss as a touchdown favorite in its last game at UTSA, bettors have brought the line for tonight's clash with Rice (3-6) down from its opening of Memphis -10.5.
We see value in the Tigers as a result of that line movement, as trends suggest Rice isn’t nearly the threat to challenge Memphis like UTSA did.
Take advantage of market’s Memphis panic
The market is overreacting to Memphis losing on the road to a UTSA team that's 3-1 against the spread at home with a perfect 4-0 outright home-field record. Rice ranks outside the top 100 in overall adjusted efficiency and is even worse on the road.
The Owls are 1-3 ATS in away games, posting a minus-7.6 average ATS margin in those contests. Meanwhile, the Tigers are plus-18.2 on the outright margin at home this season and 72nd in overall adjusted efficiency.
While several of our best college football betting sites list the spread at Memphis -8 or -9, we’re attacking the Memphis -7.5 line at FanDuel. The odds juiced to -115 there are still worthwhile as part of our college football Week 11 predictions.
Best odds: -115 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.49%
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Rice vs. Memphis best bet
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Seth Henigan Under 277.5 passing yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Memphis QB Seth Henigan threw for a season-high 454 yards during the Tigers’ last game, an eight-point loss to UTSA in which they were attempting to claw back from behind.
Since that’s not likely to be the script during tonight's matchup with Rice, we’re looking to take advantage of a recency bias that might have led to Henigan’s passing line being listed higher than what he’ll need to beat the Owls.
Owls are weak on the ground
Although Memphis' offense typically relies more heavily on the pass than the run, the matchup with a Rice defense allowing 172.9 rushing yards per game (93rd in FBS) may dictate a shift. Henigan has only cleared this passing line in four out of nine games, and Rice allows just 173.0 passing yards per outing.
Take the Under through the 277.5-yard line at bet365 (-115) or Caesars (-118) rather than 273.5 at our other best sportsbooks.
Best odds: -115 via bet365 | Implied probability: 53.49%
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Rice vs. Memphis odds
See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.
Rice vs. Memphis game info
- When: Friday, Nov. 8
- Kickoff: 9 p.m. ET
- Where: Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tenn.)
- How to watch: ESPN2
- Weather: 64 degrees, 10% chance of precipitation, wind 10-mph NE
- Favorite: Memphis -7.5 (-115 via FanDuel)
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