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WTA Montreal: Camila Giorgi
Making the case for Camila Giorgi over Cori "Coco" Gauff tonight at +130 odds going in, and also for Giorgi to win the tournament at +1200 odds.
1) Gauff is still working her way into the elite of WTA. There are many opponents she's not familiar with, her strengths and weaknesses are not fully known. Will she be the next Madison Keys or the next Sloane Stephens? I don't know, but she won't be the next Serena Williams. That's for sure.
2) Camila Giorgi, the very hard-hitting Italian with an underachieving reputation, but in her best of form right now, impressively demolishing Mertens, Podoroska and Petra Kvitova to reach this QF, all in straight sets. Giorgi isn't overhitting, she is showing great discipline in her strategy.
3) Giorgi's coach is her father and herself. Often, her father sits alone in the seats and some say it's pressure, but who knows. I haven't seen the camera on him, if he is there, in Montreal. If he's not there, could it be why she's so loose? Years ago, her father borrowed millions (possibly from the mafia) after her QF Wimbledon suprise rookie season. Some say this pressure to win and pay back the loans on a very young Camila hurt her tennis psyche. But she's well past those days now. She only has 2 WTA Titles. At 29, she is very motivated to show her best ever right now before any kind of aging sets in.
4) Gauff had an easy ride to this QF, as Johanna Konta was injured and retired early last match. Her opponent in the previous match ALSO retired, Potapova. Basically neither match was legit. In the only legit match, Rd 1, she played a visibly aching Sevastova who was suffering in the heat and not playing her best tennis. Sevastova beat her in Eastbourne.
5) In their only prior, Gauff beat Giorgi in straight sets early in the Clay season at Parma. But, Clay is a surface Gauff has played best on, whereas Clay has always been Giorgi's worst surface, all her career. Giorgi's power comes from her strong footing and forearm speed. Hard and Grass are her best. She is not a player that has anything at all to do with pushing errors, lobs or drop shots, she doesn't even think about the opponent. All she cares about his hitting winners as hard as she can, often with a lot of topspin, and avoiding going over the baseline. I think she can keep Gauff in the back of the court which strips Gauff of her own winners. Gauff will try to push Camila out of position. Camila has a fast return game and I don't see Gauff's serve being so dominating. If her serve was already in top form I might hesitate, but she could be rusty because she hasn't played legit matches the last two rounds.
6) I watched all Giorgi's matches in Montreal, and she's never looked better because her error rate is down low.
7) If Giorgi wins this match, there's not a single player she can't beat in this tournament. This means her +1200 value is obvious in arbitration. There will be bandwagon action if she wins tonight.
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Originally Posted by wombat
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Tuesday gave teacher10 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.