[Lightning]

WTA STRASBOURG
Stephens to WIN - $5 - ONE STAKE


Stosur is the defending champion, but she has a really tough draw. Stephens has won three tournaments this year playing some terrific tennis, and has a relatively easy draw here. She's still not at the stage where she can afford to take these events lightly and should at least make the final. Also like Alison Riske as a bit of a smoky at $26 on sportsbet.

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WTA NUREMBURG
Siegemund to WIN - $5 - HALF STAKE
McHale to WIN - $10 - HALF STAKE
Larsson to WIN - $25 - QUARTER STAKE

A fairly open tournament. Two players stand out to me immediately at nice odds - Siegemund and McHale. McHale is continually underrated. She has a great serve and plays with energy. McHale is also coming off what is probably a career best season, beating Stosur, Ivanovic and Friedsam on clay (before pushing Williams in the semi final of Rome).


Siegemund has had a truly phenomenal clay season, playing seventeen and winning 14 of those (one of which was Stosur). She loves to attack on both wings and is adept at sliding defensively.


Larsson is just a smoky I like that could have an impact.
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ATP NICE
Thiem to WIN - $4 - TWO STAKES


I'm staring at one name on my sheet, and that's Dominic Thiem. He won this tournament last year so has to defend the ranking points. He should have no worries in the first two rounds. The semis will be his first big test, most likely taking on one of Fognini/Paire. They're great players on their day, but neither of them are known for their mental strength and Thiem should triumph.


On the other side of the draw there are some excellent players, spearheaded by home favourite Gilles Simon. Despite being able to play at an high level, Simon is notorious for not bringing that level to small tournaments. It is in France, however, and Simon generally does try at home. I think he should make the final, and will face Thiem.

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ATP GENEVA


I really don't know how to approach this tournament, and because of that, I'll most likely leave it alone. Wawrinka generally lacks motivation at 250 level tournaments, so it's hard to find value on him at under $3. Ferrer is my favourite purely because he's been embarrassed in his last few matches and will be out to prove a point. Carrena-Busta always gives his all and is a favourite of mine on clay.

Cheers!

[fitguy67]

good contribution...

i followed along at pinny prices and dutched selections together to yield:
(a,b,c,d)=Any One Of the bracketed selections (a,b,c,d) wins

Nurn: (Siegemund,McHale,Larsson)+224.01
Stras: Stephens +350
Thiem (Thiem, Simon)+136.46

easy to determine the bet-sizes needed to yield equal NET payout WHICHEVER selection wins using
http://www.oddschecker.com/betting-t...ing-calculator

given Siegemund+450, McHale+1100, Larsson+2200
which convert into 5.5, 12, and 23
if you're not clear on that, visit http://www.intensegambling.com/sport...dds-converter/

plugging in these three decimal prices and setting the "total staked" to 100, you'll see the American odds appear as the "Profit" two lines below

once you know the odds for the composite (3-sectioned) ticket, you then decide your desired risk amount and over-write the "100" you set in "Total Staked"...the risk amounts for each of the three players then show up directly to the right of the decimal prices you entered for each player

my odds for the Nice tourney were Thiem+280, Simon+526 if you want an even easier example to get started/check your understanding of how to use this cool calculator...which is great for all "one winner" tournament-style events such as golf or racing of any-sort when you want to select more than one usually-high-payout selection but want to configure it in such a way that you don't care at all which selection comes thru for you

[Lightning]

That's a good idea! Basically arbitraging them all, so you don't care who wins.

Converting from American to decimal odds is actually pretty easy. I don't even know why you guys have the -xxx when the +xxx works for everything haha.

McHale into the next round but Larsson knocked out. Let's hope.

[frugalgambler]

You do realize that the futures are typically priced below the yield of "parlaying" the ML for each successive round, especially at smaller tournaments ?

[Lightning]

Futures odds are just averages based on probabilities i.e. it really depends on who they're playing. It could be a lot more if good players get through, and less if average players get through. If you bet on Nadal to win the French and Novak gets knocked out second round, his path to the final is so much easier and multiing his games up would most likely yield a lesser return than what you would've got at the start.

It's also a lot of work to keep multiplying each game - it's so much easier to just set and forget. Depends on whether you can be bothered.

[frugalgambler]

Futures odds are just averages based on probabilities i.e. it really depends on who they're playing.

In real life, bookies look for every angle possible to rip off the punters. Short-changing on futures is pretty typical. I love futures as much as anybody, but statistically speaking I think they are even worse than teasers, especially at smaller events with little action.

[Lightning]

Oh no doubt they're incredibly hard to pick, but the benefits are, like I said, less work and also that you can't pussy out of rolling it over if the player you bet on has a hard match up. You're right in that the margins are a lot higher though.

[Lightning]

BOOM. Thiem secures a mass profit of 5.75 stakes/units!

[Jinge]

Good job, I was on Zverev +4,5 @2,20, needed 1 game after the second set

[fitguy67]

bang!

here's to future tourney-futures threads like this one!

[Lightning]

Needed that one after a tough week. Brings me back to a small loss for the week, which I can cop. I'll have a new futures post up soon.