[juanquintero]

Totally serious here. By order I would make it:

1- "After a feat, a defeat" - Seeing a big underdog player beating a big player almost always ends with a lose in the next game, ie- Kyrgios won vs Nadal and lost the next game, Coric won vs Nadal and lost the next game, Karlovic won vs Djokovic and then lost the next game, Seppi won vs Federer and then lost the next game, Tatsuma Ito won vs Wawrinka and lost the next game. Also works with after winning a title. Sometimes the odds are not that great but there is value

2- believe the odds when they are dropping. Totally makes sense 90% of the time. When I got a big lean, I usually look for a line drop, I would say 0.2 makes me even more confident for it.

3- check also at least for 2 more opinions. Sometimes you just found yourself thinking "I know he is going to win!". Well, with the time I started to try to avoid this feeling, which still happens almost everyday. Still, I now look for more opinions and look for more information. Another money saving thing.

[Vinnie Paz]

No WTA


Yet everyday/week I get suckered back in.....

[SirtySree]

With the fading after winning a title angle, I use to think it was a pretty good method and found that most players after winning a final either carries that form on and makes more finals or loses in the first two rounds. However, looking further that actually doesn't really even matter cause after removing a players final appearances, they still lose in the 1st two rounds just as often for 90% of players.

With the line dropping angle, I really liked that too but once a line drops, all value is gone so unless you had a bet on it beforehand, there's not much point. Only thing is that it gives me more confidence in my initial bet.

Thing I found with tennis is that almost all strategies in tennis suck in the long run. That's the case for me and almost everyone here. You see ppl having a good run for a week or two and then hit a bad run and disappear on here all the time. There are only a few consistent posters on here and even they only hit at breakeven or just slightly above which is as impressive as it gets with tennis. The only strategy that has successfully worked for me is betting favourites down a set but that doesn't seem like a popular method here although that's what personal works for me.

[JohnnyRudeboy]

Nice discussion.

One thing that helps me in all sports, tennis included, is sticking with a handful of players/teams that you are most familiar with rather than sifting through all the day's options for the hidden gem in the rough.

[Vinnie Paz]

Nice discussion.

One thing that helps me in all sports, tennis included, is sticking with a handful of players/teams that you are most familiar with rather than sifting through all the day's options for the hidden gem in the rough.

Yeah whenever there's like 6 tourneys at a time going on I just stick to 2-3

[tb1984]

Qualifiers with + games in early rounds(first and second).

[juanquintero]

No WTA


Yet everyday/week I get suckered back in.....

I already stopped playing those girls matches.

With the fading after winning a title angle, I use to think it was a pretty good method and found that most players after winning a final either carries that form on and makes more finals or loses in the first two rounds. However, looking further that actually doesn't really even matter cause after removing a players final appearances, they still lose in the 1st two rounds just as often for 90% of players.

With the line dropping angle, I really liked that too but once a line drops, all value is gone so unless you had a bet on it beforehand, there's not much point. Only thing is that it gives me more confidence in my initial bet.

Thing I found with tennis is that almost all strategies in tennis suck in the long run. That's the case for me and almost everyone here. You see ppl having a good run for a week or two and then hit a bad run and disappear on here all the time. There are only a few consistent posters on here and even they only hit at breakeven or just slightly above which is as impressive as it gets with tennis. The only strategy that has successfully worked for me is betting favourites down a set but that doesn't seem like a popular method here although that's what personal works for me.

That is arguable. I believe that the so called normal players cant keep the form, especially after winning a big game and having to remain focused in the next game. After Titles can be tricky, which I normally don't play a lot but there are some good spots. The line drops works if it is not a big drop, where you can find value, I would say from 2.75 to 2.25 - from 1.80 to 1.60...

A think that I also like is when you got almost even odds for both teams and see almost all of the public backing the same player, I love to make a fade.

About your strategy, I think there is a lot of value. Nishikori made me some very nice money in Memphis, despite not having the greatest of odds. Today I played him too, after saw that he got broken by Anderson, and played the 1st set, the ML and the 2-0 correct score because I knew it was just bad luck for the japanese. Went great.

Nice discussion.

One thing that helps me in all sports, tennis included, is sticking with a handful of players/teams that you are most familiar with rather than sifting through all the day's options for the hidden gem in the rough.

Agree. Like Alexander Zverev overs, Marius Copil overs and João Sousa overs. In this 3 guys, I almost play always their over in the games of the match, they are pretty good in getting tie-breaks and 3 sets

[EaglesPhan36]

Never trust tennis line movement.

[felix_felicus7]

Never trust the french I say. Fognini should get dual citizenship.

[frugalgambler]

Good thread. I learned not to trust my eyes, b/c I do not know that much about subtleties of tennis. I learned that lots of favs like to lose the week before the GSs to get rest. I learned that it is hard to win your first tour final, especially in WTA (see e.g. Tomljanovic today). Players who win an early round match where they had to fight off a MP or two, might advance further than you think (e.g. Sharapova this year at Aus. Open). Players coming off a big upset win, especially in GSs, are a good fade. Finally, I learned not to go big unless I have a decent angle. This is just not my sport.

[hendrafirmanto]

1. Don't bet overrated young gun because of media attention
2. only bet consistent players as favorites
3. one dimensional brainless ballbasher only good as underdog
4. don't blame the players when you lose, evaluate.

[gaebiskon]

The only strategy that has successfully worked for me is betting favourites down a set but that doesn't seem like a popular method here although that's what personal works for me.

Do you let it ride after you bet favorites a set down or hedge?
Also do you use Betfair or Matchbook?

[SirtySree]

Do you let it ride after you bet favorites a set down or hedge?
Also do you use Betfair or Matchbook?

I used Bet365 before and now WilliamHill. Both have the cashout options which makes hedging out easier but I rarely ever do. Only time I hedge is to minimise a loss such as taking 80% of the loss when I consider the match over but even then, I usually let it ride especially for WTA. I barely if ever hedge when the player I have is up and I'll just take the bad beat if it comes as I figure at the end of the day, cost of hedging is much more than cost of bad beats as long as you don't get mad and start throwing bad bets around after those bad beats.

When I first started the favourites down a set strategy, I took every favorite down a set as you could see from my old thread and that resulted in breakeven/slight profit for me. I adjusted it towards the end of that thread to be more selective and it has paid off big time to the point where I got kicked out of BetVictor after less than a month.

[gaebiskon]

I used Bet365 before and now WilliamHill. Both have the cashout options which makes hedging out easier but I rarely ever do. Only time I hedge is to minimise a loss such as taking 80% of the loss when I consider the match over but even then, I usually let it ride especially for WTA. I barely if ever hedge when the player I have is up and I'll just take the bad beat if it comes as I figure at the end of the day, cost of hedging is much more than cost of bad beats as long as you don't get mad and start throwing bad bets around after those bad beats.

When I first started the favourites down a set strategy, I took every favorite down a set as you could see from my old thread and that resulted in breakeven/slight profit for me. I adjusted it towards the end of that thread to be more selective and it has paid off big time to the point where I got kicked out of BetVictor after less than a month.

Very interesting.
Why not use Betfair or Matchbook as they offer better odds and you can place bets anytime during the match as opposed to having to place bets after only during breaks?

Also what is your plan when you are eventually banned from Bet365 & William Hill?

[SirtySree]

Very interesting.
Why not use Betfair or Matchbook as they offer better odds and you can place bets anytime during the match as opposed to having to place bets after only during breaks?

Also what is your plan when you are eventually banned from Bet365 & William Hill?

Does Matchbook or Betfair offer in-play for all matches though? Like ITF level?
I can place bets anytime though with all the books I've used, not just during breaks in play.
There's a few other books I can use like 10bet, Winner, and TitanBet but they have slightly less matches available.

[Chaz22]

my strategy is simple. I only bet on odds that are higher +100. The range is from +100 up to +600.

My last such bet was on Simon against Murray in Rotterdam.
I also got quite on Vanni in his impressive run.

On the bad side I lost couple of close ones as well last week.

For sure you don't pick all big odds you see, there is some analysis done where you evaluate the chances.

You can have your good runs and bad runs on this strategy, but in the end bankroll only grows.

[gaebiskon]

Does Matchbook or Betfair offer in-play for all matches though? Like ITF level?
I can place bets anytime though with all the books I've used, not just during breaks in play.
There's a few other books I can use like 10bet, Winner, and TitanBet but they have slightly less matches available.

I don't know if Betfair now offers ITF level matches now but you can virtually bet on every ATP/WTA matches but some don't have enough liquidity.

Matchbook only offers matches of their choices.

You should really try them out, especially Matchbook.
Betfair commission is at whopping 6.5% but their odds are still a lot better than normal sportsbooks

[JC1186]

If you're good, mental weakness, chasing, betting on itf/too many wta matches and a lack of discipline is the difference between winning 50K a year with $100 units, and making peanuts.

Bide your time and back yourself with fully informed plays. Always trust yourself, but it's ok to go over the play multiple times and make sure you've analysed the matchup, conditions, and whatever else fully.

If you are on a roll, don't start raising your stakes impulsively. Stick to what works. Doubling your unit size is fine.

Also, bet each match on its own. Don't think about recent losses, bets that should have won, what your bank size was "just a few days ago", what "you're happy to lose", or trying to win back an amount that will make you feel at ease. Bad runs happen. In my experience, it's easy to make a bad run a horrible one because of human nature and weakness of the mind.

Lastly, if you're feeling mentally a bit out of sorts, lower your stakes briefly until you're feeling like your regular self.

[pipita17]

Analyze, discuss and visualize.

[jtoler]

I used Bet365 before and now WilliamHill. Both have the cashout options which makes hedging out easier but I rarely ever do. Only time I hedge is to minimise a loss such as taking 80% of the loss when I consider the match over but even then, I usually let it ride especially for WTA. I barely if ever hedge when the player I have is up and I'll just take the bad beat if it comes as I figure at the end of the day, cost of hedging is much more than cost of bad beats as long as you don't get mad and start throwing bad bets around after those bad beats.

When I first started the favourites down a set strategy, I took every favorite down a set as you could see from my old thread and that resulted in breakeven/slight profit for me. I adjusted it towards the end of that thread to be more selective and it has paid off big time to the point where I got kicked out of BetVictor after less than a month.

Kicked out of a book for simply betting when a player is down?

[beefcake]

Stick to all qualifiers in ATP 250's ATS. You WILL NOT go broke an make a small profit..Stick to it..long season of 10 months.

[SirtySree]

I don't know if Betfair now offers ITF level matches now but you can virtually bet on every ATP/WTA matches but some don't have enough liquidity.

Matchbook only offers matches of their choices.

You should really try them out, especially Matchbook.
Betfair commission is at whopping 6.5% but their odds are still a lot better than normal sportsbooks

Thanks for the suggestion but I would need ITF/Low level Challenger matches as that's where the value is at.

Kicked out of a book for simply betting when a player is down?

Na I got kicked out cause no books like you joining and taking their money right off the bat. Bet365 let me stick around though cause as mentioned in another thread, I sucked at tennis betting and all other strategies that I tried so lost a bit with them already in the past.

[Snowball]

i was up 14.00+ (units being .01) from spring to autumn and now am
under 1.00 from november to february. before that my best month was June/July.
within that is an answer, for me anyway. the heart of the tennis season
when their bodies are best and strengths are strongest is when the weather
is warm in Europe and the U.S. - cold weather, travel, holidays, rustiness,
coaching changes, whatever it is, be more selective during the junk season,
and that includes the Australian/Asian swing unless the player is Australian/Asian.

[felix_felicus7]

Just noticed Zverev overs hit again for you OP Juan!

[juanquintero]

Just noticed Zverev overs hit again for you OP Juan!

That kid is bad mentally speaking. What a shame because he has talent

[Seaside Snake]

+500 units a year ? i would love to see your spreads

[justlaw]

Never trust tennis line movement.

true, very true