[poet]

Already got him at +175 to win a grand but I'm thinking of putting down more. I just can't see him losing this tournament. And I have a gut feeling to boot. On the other hand, I can see Nadal going down, which would make Djoker impossible to bet on in the finals. Can Raonic and/or Birdshit (if he gets through) beat Djoker? I mean, Djoker wants this tournament bad, after coming close a couple of time. I really think this one is his to lose. I know MDF got him at +240 before the clay season (kudos to him) but +110 isn't bad either. I have a feeling we will be kicking ourselves in a week, if we don't grab it now.

[frugalgambler]

Hmm, do you really expect Rafa to lose to Ferrer or to anybody but (possibly) Djoker ? What will the final line be assuming we get the Nadal-Djoker matchup ? I do not think it will be too far from -110. I liked Djoker at +200 but not so much at +110, even at this stage.

[ardacet8]

Only thing takes me away from taking Joker in futures that pinnacle's odds for their market. It says, if Joker and Nadal both start for final match, the odds would be 1,935 for Joker and 1,971 for Nadal. So why should I take 2,10 for him to win extra 2 till getting to the final and making those odds real? Nadal's path is easier, Verdasco or Ferrer cant beat him in RG. But Joker will face players with huge serve and forehand power, namely Raonic and Gulbis or Berdych. Gulbis would have more chance against him than Berdych I guess. So I have Nadal-Joker final bet and I am waiting for the final to bet live by seeing how things will go.

[frugalgambler]

When you think about this, Nadal@+170 looks like a good value. But I have no idea what his injury status is.

[poet]

I just have a gut feeling that Nadal gets upset before the final.

[GoBlue77]

I just have a gut feeling that Nadal gets upset before the final.

same. his health i question.

[poet]

Screw it. Sometimes you gotta go with your gut. Another grand on Djoker to win it all.

[EaglesPhan36]

I don't understand doubling up on this bet.

[zec]

I don't really understand people saying that Ferrer can't beat Nadal if Nadal is not healthy. Ferrer is playing great

[poet]

I don't understand doubling up on this bet.

I know, EP. This bet can (and will) only make sense if Nadal loses before the finals. This is purely a gut bet. My gut told me to bet Serena to lose (at -125) before the tournament and I did not listen. This time, I'm listening.

[poet]

Thinking of putting another grand on djoker now and one more if he meets Nadal in the final: Nole can taste it now.

[Hardcoar]

same. his health i question.

http://www.southparkstudios.com/clip...lderly-meeting

[poet]

BTW, you will rarely, if ever, get a top two player in the world going through a slam drought like Nole is going through, with a chance to win a slam he wants in the worst way, going against a guy who not only beat him in their last slam meeting but also beat him here the last two times in matches which he arguably should have lost and is now at a very vulnerable stage in his career (and that is if Nadal even makes the final).

[ardacet8]

I was thinking about betting on Novak to win RG but I guess I will be betting Gulbis to win it. Because I have a medium sized bet for Novak-Nadal final, and if something can prevent this, it is Gulbis playing like a monster at the semi. He is priced @19,00 so what I think is that if he can get past through Novak, best player so far, he can win against anybody coming from the other half. Just a fun bet but I want to wait for Joker-Nadal final to bet on Joker. Or I can also bet $20 for Gulbis semi and if it wins, I can transfer the whole winning to the final for him to win. I guess it is better that way. Because he is getting traded @7,10 for semis, and hopefully he will be around 5,00 for the final.

[poet]

Gulbis? Surely you must be kidding. Im talking about 3 to 5 thousand on Nole to win it all and you are telling me about a 20 dollar hedge?

[ardacet8]

Well poet, that stake was for myself, you can change it for yourself. But ok, I got your point, Gulbis has almost no chance at all against the best in the world right now, which my big wager for "novak-rafa final" indicates but what I was trying to say that IFF Gulbis can get really in his beast mode and somehow get past through Novak, he will left with the easier side of the draw. Nadal (former king of clay) is so breakable by a good groundstroker at this point, and think of another player beats nadal and plays the final, just as you have in your mind. Also 5dimes has gulbis for 26.2. It is the longest shot I've ever think of betting but here I am.

[reddevil84]

The former king of clay has 63-1 career record in RG and still 32 straight wins... don't forgot it lol but I'm also on Djoko, odds say it should be finally its year. A player with these kind of records at +160 looks too good to be true.

[jjgold]

Joker should win and is actually just as good as the players Nadal on Clay

[kenz]

I have $500 on Novak outright @2.75

[poet]

@ardacet8, yes it is tennis, and anything can happen. Gulbis' coach is really building Novak up (showering him with accolades), he must think his guy has a chance.

@Kenz, Nice to know you are on this as well. One more to go before the final for Nole and two for Nadal. Let's see how it goes.

[kenz]

Gulbis wont be a problem. He has a pretty good serve and good strokes/drops to bother too many players but he cant even get past Ferrer, Novak has a lot more weapons and more aggressive

But I would not touch from current @1.85ish odds. I would wait for the Final (I think Nadal beats Ferrer), and I assume one can get better live odds considering Nadal wont be swept 3-0 to Nole

BOL to Novak future holders

[poet]

Gulbis wont be a problem. He has a pretty good serve and good strokes/drops to bother too many players but he cant even get past Ferrer, Novak has a lot more weapons and more aggressive

But I would not touch from current @1.85ish odds. I would wait for the Final (I think Nadal beats Ferrer), and I assume one can get better live odds considering Nadal wont be swept 3-0 to Nole

BOL to Novak future holders

Do you think Nadal's poor form of late was an aberration? Do you think he is using his back as an excuse? Also, don't you think guys like Ferrer and Murray (if he faces him) will have more confidence against him, now that he has lost that aura of invincibility?

[kenz]

I do. If Nadal is 10%-15% off, 100% Ferrer can beat him

There is a possibility Nadal can get beat. But still I am not 100% comfy taking Novak @ these odds. If I did not have this @better odds already, I might think about it.

I would rather livebet on Nadal's opponent (like Ferrer) @4-5ish odds if I see Nadal not performing well today than loading some more on Novak now with minus odds

[kenz]

2013 RG final scoreline does not deceive me I watched it, it was a tight game. And it was when Nadal was @ his best. Since then Ferrer won 3 of 4 clashes if we include Mubadala Championships too, but usually dogs win them. If not 2/3. Losing in London is understandable Ferrer sucked that week.

There seems to be some value on Ferrer +6.5 @2.08, Ferrer to win a set @1.77, Ferrer ML @5.90

[poet]

2013 RG final scoreline does not deceive me I watched it, it was a tight game. And it was when Nadal was @ his best. Since then Ferrer won 3 of 4 clashes if we include Mubadala Championships too, but usually dogs win them. If not 2/3. Losing in London is understandable Ferrer sucked that week.

There seems to be some value on Ferrer +6.5 @2.08, Ferrer to win a set @1.77, Ferrer ML @5.90

Yes, there is value in them but I guess I prefer taking Nole (even at those odds) and hoping Nadal losses.

[kenz]

BOL poet