[Bet10Heinekens]

I'm looking at R.B.A. +175 and Isner +160

No sold with Birdshit, If he play like he did vs Nedo, R.B.A. will have a shot

bet Isner and pray for tiebreakers


any dogs jump out for Friday

[Geoff_Saari]

Dusan Lajovic to take down Sock, of course

edit: oops, just realized that one´s on saturday

[EaglesPhan36]

Everyone will be on Bautista-Agut. TI has this ridiculously tipped 33-4 in favor of the Spaniard. I think it's a different story on slower clay where Berdych should do better than he did against him in Indian Wells. Probably avoid it altogether though as Berdych is still iffy with form so far, need to see more from him.

Men's side, I think Granollers or Simon can pull an upset. Isner also won't be without a chance IMO if he can serve really well and get cheap points off Robredo.

[zec]

I like Isner a lot; I am having a hard time predicting Raonic/Simon.

[EaglesPhan36]

I think if Simon is able to return serve and not let Raonic just whip him around for cheap points off-serve, Raonic will be ripe. Simon will work him long in rallies ... but the caveat being that he has to get his racket on Raonic's serves to put them in play and start those rallies.

[Vinnie Paz]

anything on the wta side guys? are we fading muguruza off the serena win???

[gregm]

anything on the wta side guys? are we fading muguruza off the serena win???

Dogs moneyline or against the spread? At this stage in grand slams you start to get a pretty good impression of who is here to play and the usual suspects start showing up always for the final 16, Quarters and Semis. One of the best sports for parlays at this stage, stat wise historically, if you choose the right players. A ton of people on agut over berdych but I am fading that based on clay stats for the two players, maybe Hantuchova but I am not touching it. I am taking a small punt on townsend +5.5 over suarez navvarro but that is solely based on watching her match with cornet, stat wise there is nothing to go on.

Saturday seems to offer some better dogs worth looking at. Cirstea over Jankovic and Safarova over Ivanovic should offer some great handicaps. Monfils over Fognini, Karlovic is on a tear, Lajovic might be worth a punt .

[matt1216]

Dusan Lajovic to take down Sock, of course

edit: oops, just realized that one´s on saturday

Thats not gonna happen

[JC1186]

I've got a big play on a big dog tonight. One I've been waiting on for a few days now. Just waiting for the odds to drift a little higher as the money comes in for the fav.

Will post it up later. I doubt anyone will get on though hah!

[lucasdawg]

taking overs for all games:

Robredo v Isner
Raonic v Simon
Berdych v Bautista

BOL

[brodie]

watching isner against kukushkin, i really think robredo has a good shot to beat him in 3 or 4

raonic will beat simon

klizan/granollers is a toss up but i guess i like granollers since he's the dog

honestly one that i like is Jerzy at +375 or maybe the over

and i like gael monfils tomorrow

[kenz]

Klizan should win

Granollers in this form is shit. Pysically torn, vulnerable BH

Wonder if Dolgo got injured from the scoreline.

[kenz]

On Klizan and Tsonga ML

[lucasdawg]

wouldnt be surprised if Granollers bitches out

[kenz]

Took it from marathonbet, if 1st set is completed ML bets are valid

[EaglesPhan36]

Have to chuckle at the idiots at TI who were all majorly on Bautista-Agut. Did not understand that one.

[matt1216]

Have to chuckle at the idiots at TI who were all majorly on Bautista-Agut. Did not understand that one.

EP, just shows you what they know... Jack shit.

[ap1ftw]

J. JANOWICZ +390

[Semper Fidelis]

What about the home dogs? Certainly Simon seems to have a better shot at pulling the upset, but what do you think about Parmentier? We all know huge dogs win more often in WTA (already one scalp for the day in A-Rad losing to Tom at +700), but who else upsets today? I have a hunch that one more dog wins today, but can't choose between Larsson and Pamentier...

[marniblitz]

Have to chuckle at the idiots at TI who were all majorly on Bautista-Agut. Did not understand that one.

One-sided action always raises a red flag, but RBA is 2-1 head to head (granted, all on hard) and just beat Birdy at Indian Wells. +200 doesn't seem idiotic to me, regardless of outcome.

[gregm]

Tennis insight is probably my favorite tennis web site for all the tools they provide you like the filters and the ti model and a good database but there are usually only a few really good insights on there from the users. Most people just make wager with no insight to get on the leader board and get a free subscription I guess. I didnt see anyone mention the fact that berdych had much better numbers on clay and beaten players like Djokovic, Almagro, Murray, Del Potro on clay. Agut had never beaten a top 10 player on clay and only one player in the top 50 on clay.I guess they see he is a spaniard and assumed he is good on clay, his numbers are pretty average on the surface

Really looking forward to gulbis /federer. Like monfils and kvitova as small dogs tomorrow, would be surprised to see glopez drop a set

[kenz]

On Klizan and Tsonga ML

Tsonga cashed. Also had -1.5 sets @1.50 and 3-0 @2.30

I had Gulbis ML too.

Klizan does not look great though, watching the game

Live bet Berdych @1.60 after he got broken in his first serve of the game and 0-30 on Agut's.

Good day for favourites but Klizan is doubtful. Playing kinda free style

[frugalgambler]

Tsonga/Djoker should by dynamite. Djoker really does not like to be the villain, and Tsonga@RG is a whole different animal, he should take at least a set, probably two, possibly the match. This is where Nadal and even Feds would enjoy to disappoint the hostile crowd, but Djoker will most likely struggle with that.

[Hardcoar]

You didn't watch Konga conceding to DAVIIID!!! last year, did you?

[frugalgambler]

Yeah, Ferrer last year was a brick wall, but right now Djoker looks anything but. Plus, I think Tsonga thought he had a real chance against Ferrer and he choke real hard. He will be much more relaxed vs Djoker as an overwhelming dog.

[kenz]

You didn't watch Konga conceding to DAVIIID!!! last year, did you?

I watched it and recently I post a ticket I won last year in a Tipsa thread.

My bookie made a mistake and opened -before semifinals- Ferrer to finish runner up @3.40. Ferrer against Konga was @1.75. Considering he cant win on final (Nadal/Novak) and the possible odds, this @3.40 was golden. I bet $900 on it.

[kenz]

I knew I should take Granollers first set @6 a break down but when I saw 30-0 Klizan leading I thought it was over

[kenz]

Tsonga was horrible today, make no mistake. Thanks to Jano he won easily.

His legs and body looks really heavy

[fitguy67]

Tsonga/Djoker should by dynamite. Djoker really does not like to be the villain, and Tsonga@RG is a whole different animal, he should take at least a set, probably two, possibly the match. This is where Nadal and even Feds would enjoy to disappoint the hostile crowd, but Djoker will most likely struggle with that.

very interesting angle...economic textbooks always say firms are driven virtually-exclusively to make profit...but much research disproves that patently (the popular paperback "Freakonomics" is a good starting point...see "Choosing the Right Pond" for a more comprehensive approach)...

in reality, there are a lot more factors that underly behavior, mostly of two general sorts:
"chest thumping" (demonstrating one's attainment rather than adding to it), or on flip-side
"woodwork hiding" (ie. avoiding awkward situations, even if by dealing with them directly, opportunities might be created)


_________
as winning matches is the exact analog to making profit for each player's "firm", of which he is the CEO...ideas that incorporate other motivations can not be discounted

__________

look at Pops choosing to risk the NBA championship that was literally being wheeled out to him with only 35secnds to go in the 6th game...to literally take that trophy and all that came with it...and, rather than protect it with his life...he put his "that's just not my style" abhorrence for late-fouling-in-such-situations above winning...he put his need to demonstrate the consistency of his character over winning his sport's ultimate prize...

normally all sorts of little "games within the game" like that--that are counter-productive to victory--are invisible and "work out in the wash" of the whole contest's result (eg. had the Spurs hung on DESPITE Pop's pig-headedness--a far more likely occurrence than what actually happened!)--we'd never have such a clear example of how apaprently-secondary concerns (such as the coach's "need for integrity") CAN and often DO trump the "need for victory"

____________

in any given contest, within each participant there are countless intangible undercurrents, some of them running counter to the obvious "need to win"...

these are all captured imperfectly in the expression "he played like he had a plane to catch"

[manwiss]

I knew I should take Granollers first set @6 a break down but when I saw 30-0 Klizan leading I thought it was over

I'm thinking about Klizan 4th set, your opinion?

[kenz]

no idea.

tough game

[Geoff_Saari]

Thats not gonna happen

Lajovic .. as I called it