1. 02-05-14 10:38 PM #1
    SirtySree
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    Dodig v Karlovic Value Bet

    On Bet365, the odds are @6.5 for the match to be between 24-26 (inclusive) games. I find this to be great value so thought I would share since I reckon there is a really high chance that if the game ends in two sets, it will hit. Another bet would be for match to go 3 sets if you want to make a bet that covers in case the first bet loses.

    Good luck all if you decide to do it.
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  2. 02-05-14 11:31 PM #2
    matt1216
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    don't even mess around, Karlovic will win this match. I got the feelin Karlovic will win this in 2 sets 6-4 7-6 just the one break. 24-26 games is great odds but it does seem a bit off. The books have thought this one through
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  3. 02-06-14 12:44 AM #3
    SirtySree
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    Karlovic struggles against Dodig. Dodig seems to be the only player that can return Karlovic's serve by usually knowing which side he is serving to.

    I am also putting a bet down on Dodig to win. As good as a serve Karlovic has, Dodig has one to match and is not just a pure servebot. Plus out of 13 sets played, Karlovic has only broke Dodig once which was years ago. My only concern is if Dodig breaks Karlovic, not the other way around.
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  4. 02-06-14 01:12 AM #4
    JNic
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    Quote Originally Posted by SirtySree View Post
    Karlovic struggles against Dodig. Dodig seems to be the only player that can return Karlovic's serve by usually knowing which side he is serving to.

    I am also putting a bet down on Dodig to win. As good as a serve Karlovic has, Dodig has one to match and is not just a pure servebot. Plus out of 13 sets played, Karlovic has only broke Dodig once which was years ago. My only concern is if Dodig breaks Karlovic, not the other way around.
    Very good points but there's times when Karlovics serve is literally too good and in his hometown he seems to be locked in on that, I just think that Dodig making UEs on his own service game is more likely than getting enough looks in one Ivo service game to produce a break
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  5. 02-06-14 03:36 AM #5
    ZeKa
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    Hey guys.
    Local bookie has this:
    1st set nr of games=2nd set nr of games 4.75

    I see huge value in this, obviously expecting tiebreaks in both sets.What do you think?
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  6. 02-06-14 04:04 AM #6
    Tmuston Beltics
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    If you think both sets will end in a TB, you can get more value if you bet both sets seperately to go o12.5 games.
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  7. 02-06-14 04:54 AM #7
    thirtytwo
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    anyone have a line on OVER 38.5 games in this match?
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  8. 02-06-14 05:05 AM #8
    Tmuston Beltics
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    Quote Originally Posted by thirtytwo View Post
    anyone have a line on OVER 38.5 games in this match?
    If you have access to live betting, just live bet o12.5 every set.
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  9. 02-06-14 05:33 AM #9
    tipsadontlikehim
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    Quote Originally Posted by SirtySree View Post

    I am also putting a bet down on Dodig to win. As good as a serve Karlovic has, Dodig has one to match and is not just a pure servebot. Plus out of 13 sets played, Karlovic has only broke Dodig once which was years ago.
    man get your facts straight, he broke Dodig exactly 1 year ago at the same tournament
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  10. 02-06-14 04:17 PM #10
    SirtySree
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    oh well, didnt hit but hit dodig to win. as i mentioned, was just concerned bout dodig getting the break
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  11. 02-06-14 04:23 PM #11
    matt1216
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    Quote Originally Posted by SirtySree View Post
    oh well, didnt hit but hit dodig to win. as i mentioned, was just concerned bout dodig getting the break
    Karlovic had break chances throug out the entire match. Dodig got his first chances n the 3rd set. Dodig had no buisness winning today. The 24-26 was worth a shot IMO. Better luck next time man
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  12. 02-06-14 04:36 PM #12
    SirtySree
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    Dodig won 2-0 so no 3rd set. I just felt that Dodig has the more complete game so had higher chance of breaking than Karlovic who usually only wins in tie breaks with the occasional break here and there.
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