I've been betting the sport for two years, played and also did some coaching. No self pro-claimed expert but I understand some techniacl and psychological elements.
IMO you are better off reading up on the motivation and state of mind player's come in with for the new season, it's often the difference. Often the player's whom play the bigger points well win, as opposed to the player's with the more flashier style or talent.
Anyway.
My bet of the day is Hanescu to beat Joao Souza, I'll give you a small right up. I'm assuming you're American so you can probably take the spread also.
Hanescu is a seasoned professional that's been on tour for approaching a decade, his game is based around his height from serving and ability to move opponents around with his forehand. He's an established tough competitor mentally and rarely gifts away cheap points or miss basic shots. He serves well at the big times and has a good high percentage pattern of play to his tennis with good netclearance on his shots.
IMO he is wrongly the underdog in this match. The two reasons he started as the dog and the masses are throwing their money on Souza are because Souza made a breakthrough onto the tour last season with a tournament win in a 250 atp event, he did so beating some fairly high calibre names.... ala Ferrer and Benneteu. IMO he was inspired during this week of tennis and performing above his "norm" and from the results that followed, it certainly showed. He's also now picked up a few fans and being touted as a future top 30-40 player. IMO he lacks the natural game to make it top 30-40. He is far to reliant on his forehand, there's no good enough kick or power to his second serve and when you target his backhand, you get shots very shallow from the baseline. He's good, don't get me wrong, I just feel it's a little over-the-top what people are saying and believing from one week of tennis last season which he played brilliant in big points during.
The other reason is Hanescu has been on a losing streak in the tail end of last season, but almost all his 4-5 losses involved him losing tiebreaks. When Hanescu is at anything near his "norm" he has too much in his arsenal for a player like Souza. Souza hasn't played this season and nor has Hanescu, they played their last matches in and around the same time.
Unless there's an injuy to Victor I do not know about, then the swing on this market makes little to no sense whatsoever.
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New to tennis !! Need advice
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