1. 10-12-13 01:24 AM #1
    frugalgambler
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    FedCup Final

    Italy is currently only a -175 favorite against Russia. To my knowledge, all top Italy players will be available to play in the finals at home and Errani and Vinci are great on clay and provide a killer doubles team, with Penneta and Schiavone serving as backup players. Russia might have to field a team of Kuznetsova and Petrova since most of their other top players are either injured or want to play in Sofia (Sharapova and Makarova are injured and out). Even if Kirilenko, Vesnina and Pavlyuchenkova decide not to play in Sofia, I still like Italy's chances much more than the odds indicate. Only Kuznetsova might win a match on clay in Italy. Anyway, I wanted to see if anybody on the forum might have further ideas.
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  2. 10-21-13 03:24 PM #2
    frugalgambler
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    Just a heads up: the Italy odds are now down to -230, but even those odds appear to be inflated. The only top-100 Russians that still have not decided to go Sofia or are not injured are: Kuznetsova (she did say during the Kremlin Cup she does not plan to play against Italians due to prior commitments) and Petrova (has been playing injured since the French Open). Italy should have all their top four players available (although Vinci also said during the Kremlin Cup that she is still considering going to Sofia). Anyway, I am going relatively big on Italy here. There is a pretty good chance Russia will have no top-100 players on its team, and even with Kuznetsova and Petrova playing Italy should win. Actually, Italy should win on clay against any top Russian lineup without Sharapova.

    Serbia is a -300 favorite over Czechs in the Davis Cup final and those odds appear to be not justified: Djokovic will get two points, but Tipsarevic has been playing injured and Troicki is DQ'ed. I think Berdych and Stepanek have a real chance to win 3-2.
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  3. 10-21-13 03:34 PM #3
    Hardcoar
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    All in Italy @ 1.5 (-200 you crazy Americans) with Ladbrokes.

    Cash it!/It's a lock!/BET CANNOT POSSIBLY LOSE #1001
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  4. 10-21-13 03:38 PM #4
    frugalgambler
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hardcoar View Post
    All in Italy @ 1.5 (-200 you crazy Americans) with Ladbrokes.

    Cash it!/It's a lock!/BET CANNOT POSSIBLY LOSE #1001
    Stop that ! This is still WTA and you never know what can happen. Also, not clear how Errani will look in London and if Vinci will play. And they both looked pretty tired over the past few months. So please do not tail for more than you can afford to lose, if at all. Still, I have not felt better about tennis futures since Serena@-150 to win French Open (that was I think after the first two rounds). PS Technically, a player can play both in Sofia, not qualify for SFs there and then fly to Italy to play in FedCup finals; but this is very unlikely. Both teams have to submit their roster rolls in a couple of days so we will see what happens then.

    Ever since Yeltsin died, the Russian tennis federation has been struggling a lot without adequate financial support.
    Last edited by frugalgambler; 10-21-13 at 03:44 PM.
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  5. 10-21-13 03:51 PM #5
    Hardcoar
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    Don't you mean Istanbul?

    PARTY @ ERDOGAN'S PARK HOUSE!!

    On another note, time to fade some WTA favorites in Sofia!
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  6. 10-21-13 03:53 PM #6
    frugalgambler
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    Whoops down to -265 now. Wanted to drop some more units on that bet, but I think I will pass at those odds. A healthy and motivated Kuznetsova can potentially pull off that final alone; hopefully she will not change her mind and will not play.
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  7. 10-21-13 03:54 PM #7
    frugalgambler
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hardcoar View Post
    Don't you mean Istanbul?

    PARTY @ ERDOGAN'S PARK HOUSE!!

    On another note, time to fade some WTA favorites in Sofia!
    Yeah, Errani is in Turkey this week. It's the dudes who will be playing in wankerland.
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  8. 10-21-13 04:13 PM #8
    Hardcoar
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    No sweat brah... Ladbrokes already paid out!
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  9. 10-21-13 06:08 PM #9
    MiddleMan
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    Haha. $1.52 on Bookmaker/Ladbrokes.
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  10. 10-22-13 10:06 PM #10
    MiddleMan
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    Italy $1.44 with Centrebet
    Russia $5.50 with Sportsbet (they were $6 with Bet365).
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  11. 10-22-13 10:47 PM #11
    frugalgambler
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    Russia is a fielding a team sans top-100 players. My books took that option down. Even without Errani (potentially injured) and Vinci (possibly playing on Sofia), Italy should take care of this final. I would have jumped on Italy at 1.44 if I had that option.
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  12. 10-22-13 11:58 PM #12
    poet
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    Thanks for the info you guys. Just saw that my book still had Italy for -200 and put 900 on it. As soon as I did, however, the line closed. Anyway, not sure if that's too much money, considering it's WTA. Let me know if you guys think a hedge is in order here as I know nothing about Fed Cup, or what kind of effort to expect from these women. Thanks.
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  13. 10-23-13 12:43 AM #13
    frugalgambler
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    Never know bud, but if I had a line @-200:-250 I would have added another 10 units. I just do not see how Italy loses that final; but as you said this WTA and anything is possible.
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  14. 10-23-13 01:27 AM #14
    MiddleMan
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    Quote Originally Posted by poet View Post
    Thanks for the info you guys. Just saw that my book still had Italy for -200 and put 900 on it. As soon as I did, however, the line closed. Anyway, not sure if that's too much money, considering it's WTA. Let me know if you guys think a hedge is in order here as I know nothing about Fed Cup, or what kind of effort to expect from these women. Thanks.
    The way I have hedged to create an arb is basically having a free crack at a profit, only if Italy wins. Instead of me risking $450 to win $200, I have done the following.

    $885 invested on Italy across three agencies at average odds of $1.433 to return $1268.40
    $177 invested on Russia at $6 to return $1062.

    Spending $1062 to profit $206.40 if Italy wins. If they don't, I don't lose anything. If I did it the other way without the insurance, I would be risking $450 instead of nothing to make the same profit.
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  15. 10-23-13 04:13 AM #15
    frugalgambler
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    Hedging is nice in that leaves you stress-free while preserving some profit; but if you are sure in a win why would you do that ? I used to hedge a lot and I found that I was losing more money than winning through hedging. Right now, whenever I see a hedging opportunity I say 2-3 times "Hedging is for gardeners" and only then proceed to evaluate the hedging options. Jokes aside, if you have a wide access to books that do not update the lines fast (as they did with that FedCup line), wait until the Italy roster is announced (should be today) and also see how serious is Errani's injury during her match with Li Na, and then hedge if some news are not good: do it fast using the method described above (like that writeup MiddleMan). I am not hedging in any case, as long at least Schiavone/Pennetta and Vinci are playing; maybe even if Vinci is also not playing I am still not hedging. They also have Knapp, a solid #41 ranked player.
    Last edited by frugalgambler; 10-23-13 at 04:23 AM.
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  16. 10-23-13 04:44 AM #16
    frugalgambler
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    Unofficial "official" Italian lineup: Vinci, Errani, Pennetta and Knapp; posted 5 mins ago at https://twitter.com/search?q=%23FedCup&src=hash Great news for those who bought the futures.
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  17. 10-23-13 11:25 AM #17
    poet
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    Quote Originally Posted by frugalgambler View Post
    Hedging is nice in that leaves you stress-free while preserving some profit; but if you are sure in a win why would you do that ? I used to hedge a lot and I found that I was losing more money than winning through hedging. Right now, whenever I see a hedging opportunity I say 2-3 times "Hedging is for gardeners" and only then proceed to evaluate the hedging options. Jokes aside, if you have a wide access to books that do not update the lines fast (as they did with that FedCup line), wait until the Italy roster is announced (should be today) and also see how serious is Errani's injury during her match with Li Na, and then hedge if some news are not good: do it fast using the method described above (like that writeup MiddleMan). I am not hedging in any case, as long at least Schiavone/Pennetta and Vinci are playing; maybe even if Vinci is also not playing I am still not hedging. They also have Knapp, a solid #41 ranked player.
    Thanks for the response Frugal and Middle. I've also lost a lot hedging but also saved myself a lot of money. It is a tough call, "To hedge or not to hedge, that is the question," but I think as you said Frug, unless the information coming in changes then you should just stay with your original pick. The only caveat for me here, however, is that it is WTA, and I just don't trust these gals. Call me a misogynist if you want, but I'd feel a lot better if I was betting on non-French men. BTW, that lineup should get the job done but any chance the Russian women change their mind and get patriotic all of a sudden?
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  18. 10-23-13 01:24 PM #18
    frugalgambler
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    As far as I know, you cannot change official rosters. But I am not 100% positive, googling did not help much. Errani's injury appears to be not serious: she has just played a tough 2-setter against Li Na. I have no options to hedge (yet), but even if I get one, I am not hedging. Italians are putting up their top lineup and they will not lose to Kleybanova and Panova on clay at home.
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  19. 10-25-13 05:07 PM #19
    MiddleMan
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    Russia out to $10 with pinnacle.

    I'm spewing I didn't hit Italy harder when they were showing $1.52, $1.44 and $1.40. I was at work at the time and I could only invest the amounts I had remaining in my betting accounts. Had I been home, I would have deposited more money and smashes those odds.

    Still, can't really complain.

    $1045 total investment
    $1268.40 return ($223.40 profit) if Italy wins
    $1280 return ($235 profit) if Russia wins
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  20. 10-25-13 05:17 PM #20
    frugalgambler
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    Yeah, I am kicking my self too for not going harder on that one, but you never know what might happen. I mean Russians could have found the money they needed to get their best players back on the team. My book also reacted really fast, so that the -230 line disappeared as soon as the official Russian lineup was released.

    I am not hedging: Errani looked good today and I think she will play at least one singles match.
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  21. 10-25-13 06:58 PM #21
    poet
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    I can't find an american book that's taking action on Fed Cup so that I can hedge. At least not yet. If anyone finds anything please let me know. The +841 at pinnacle is a no brainer for me but I can't bet there, being American.
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  22. 10-26-13 05:36 AM #22
    Jago2008
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    Yeah 5dimes does not offer this cup, but gl to you Frugal.
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  23. 10-28-13 11:31 AM #23
    frugalgambler
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    5dimes line is back: Italy -1475, Russia +675. Tempting to hedge (or semi-hedge), but I think I will pass. I just do not think those odds are fair and 5dimes is charging too much. Go Italy !
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  24. 11-02-13 06:22 PM #24
    frugalgambler
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    What a first day. The odds dropped to +1000 Russia, but the old fox Tarpishev (2 Davis Cups and 4 Fed Cups) managed to squeeze everything he could out of his young players. Panova had 3 MPs in the 2nd set and 1 MP in the 3rd set, but Vinci somehow managed to prevail 5-7 7-5 8-6. Vinci looked pretty gassed already in the beginning (like she looked in Moscow) and just did not want to engage in long rallies, but the crowd carried her. Errani had some problems in the 2nd set against the Russian junior: her serve remains pathetic. 6-1 6-4 Errani. Bottom line: Italy leads 2-0, but I had some regrets not hedging during that first roller coaster match.

    Tomorrow, Errani should open against Panova, and I think it will be followed by Pennetta-Kleybanova. I do not think Vinci can play a singles match tomorrow. Both Russians covered the hefty spreads, by the way: +7 & +8. If Panova's spread will be +5.5 or above, I think it is a good idea to take it: she played like a solid top-50 player today and she can pound those meatball serves of Errani. I will probably also parlay the first two matches for Russians as a hedge (today, that parlay payed ~+20000).
    Last edited by frugalgambler; 11-02-13 at 06:29 PM.
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  25. 11-02-13 09:11 PM #25
    poet
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    Quote Originally Posted by frugalgambler View Post
    What a first day. The odds dropped to +1000 Russia, but the old fox Tarpishev (2 Davis Cups and 4 Fed Cups) managed to squeeze everything he could out of his young players. Panova had 3 MPs in the 2nd set and 1 MP in the 3rd set, but Vinci somehow managed to prevail 5-7 7-5 8-6. Vinci looked pretty gassed already in the beginning (like she looked in Moscow) and just did not want to engage in long rallies, but the crowd carried her. Errani had some problems in the 2nd set against the Russian junior: her serve remains pathetic. 6-1 6-4 Errani. Bottom line: Italy leads 2-0, but I had some regrets not hedging during that first roller coaster match.

    Tomorrow, Errani should open against Panova, and I think it will be followed by Pennetta-Kleybanova. I do not think Vinci can play a singles match tomorrow. Both Russians covered the hefty spreads, by the way: +7 & +8. If Panova's spread will be +5.5 or above, I think it is a good idea to take it: she played like a solid top-50 player today and she can pound those meatball serves of Errani. I will probably also parlay the first two matches for Russians as a hedge (today, that parlay payed ~+20000).
    I chickened out and hedged. At +1000 could not resist. 100 to win my initial investment (1000) in case I lose. At least I had no worries today! Good luck.
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  26. 11-02-13 09:33 PM #26
    frugalgambler
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    Congrats Poet. I did not hedge and it cost me some nerves. Panova btw is +7.5 against Errani tomorrow. With Tarpishev on the bench and quite a few Russian flags in the crowd, I think she will cover that fairly easily. The Italians also looked nervous today, being such overwhelming favorites.
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  27. 11-03-13 01:19 AM #27
    poet
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    Thanks for the tip, frug. I'll look into that 7.5 line, Panova played great against Vinci.
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  28. 11-03-13 01:55 AM #28
    poet
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    Wow, Panova at +1200, what, is she playing against Serena or something? At that price she is worth a shot straight up.
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  29. 11-03-13 02:24 AM #29
    frugalgambler
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    Waiting for the draw to be announced. Probably will have to stay up: have too much riding on this not to hedge. I think Vinci defo not playing singles today and Kleybanova will substitute either for Panova or Chromacheva (probably for Chromacheva). If Errani does not win the first match, things can get nervy quickly.
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  30. 11-03-13 02:36 AM #30
    frugalgambler
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    Kleybanova playing Errani, instead of Panova: the bet will be canceled. I dunno if it is good or bad for Italians: Panova looked dangerous, but Kley is more experienced and more rested.
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  31. 11-03-13 04:45 AM #31
    frugalgambler
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    Yay, Errani 6-1 6-1; Italy 3-0. I hope some of you guys tailed.
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  32. 11-03-13 11:52 AM #32
    poet
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    Frug, this was one of the sharpest bets I've placed. To me this is more gratifying than guessing right by picking a winner. I guess stuff like this does not happen often, where we are ahead of books. Wish I had had more money in that account, but the bet was taken off the board as soon as I made it.
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  33. 11-03-13 11:54 AM #33
    poet
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hardcoar View Post
    All in Italy @ 1.5 (-200 you crazy Americans) with Ladbrokes.

    Cash it!/It's a lock!/BET CANNOT POSSIBLY LOSE #1001
    BTW, how many units did you place on this HC? All in?
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  34. 11-03-13 12:14 PM #34
    Hardcoar
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    All in on my Ladbrokes account, not everything I owned at the time.
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  35. 11-03-13 12:20 PM #35
    poet
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hardcoar View Post
    All in on my Ladbrokes account, not everything I owned at the time.
    Good job, HC. You've been at this longer than I have, how often does this kind of thing happen (i.e., where we get reliable info before the books can react)?
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