[MagicDiceFlow]

I don't know how much more proof the books need to give Fognini the respect he deserves but I believe they have got the wrong player favored here. Already beating top tier players in Berdych, Gasquet, Kohlschreiber, and now Haas .....there isnt a player in better form on clay than Fognini currently. I've been carefully watching Fog's form the last month and I havent seen anyone else that is striking the ball more cleanly than the italian on the red surface.

Almagro was having problems with Monaco yesterday on several occasions and he will be in for a long day if that form continues. I've been reviewing the match of Fog vs Haas and I havent seen anyone hitting with this much precision and awesome counter punching groundstrokes the way Fog did in manhandling Haas. Don't forget, he didnt just beat Berdych and Gasquet earlier this year on clay, he beat the crap outta them in straights!! Proceeded to do the same to Haas.

I know what the books are thinking here. They believe Fognini is due for a letdown spot. He has now won 9 consecutive matches. Here's the problem with Almagro and what will be the ultimate weakness in this match that will enable Fognini to prevail.......Almagro's backhand. I had money on Almagro today and it was heart wrenching watching him hit backhands. Normally this is a beautiful stroke for him but lately, that thing is very inconsistent and a downright weakness. I saw Monaco kept pounding that backhand and if they kept a stat on it, I'd say Almagro lost 60-70% of the shots from his backhand side. Fognini has been killing guys with one handed backhands (Kohlscreiber, Haas) and I see that trend continuing against Almagro.

The books have the wrong player favored here and I'm pounding Fognini for 8 units.


Best of luck fellas.

[MagicDiceFlow]

Ticket Details :
Wager Type : Money Line
Wager Status : Pending

Risk / To Win Amount : 800.00 / 880.00(USD)
Accepted : 7/19/2013 10:08PM - PST


Sport / Period : ATP Match Betting Tennis / Game
Selection : F. Fognini
Time : 7/20/2013 3:05:01AM - (PST)
Line : +110
Game Notes : MATCH WAGERING - A full set must be completed for money line wagers to have action. The spread and total are based on sets and the full match must be completed for action. On first set betting, 1st set must be completed for money line wagers to be valid.

[Demonata]

187732526-1	7/20/13 1:52am	$140.00	$116.67	Pending	7/20/13 6:00am ATP Tennis 121 Nicolas Almagro -120* vs Fabio Fognini

I think this is the time fognini faulters and underdog can only keep winning so long.

[matt1216]

Ticket Details :
Wager Type : Money Line
Wager Status : Pending

Risk / To Win Amount : 800.00 / 880.00(USD)
Accepted : 7/19/2013 10:08PM - PST


Sport / Period : ATP Match Betting Tennis / Game
Selection : F. Fognini
Time : 7/20/2013 3:05:01AM - (PST)
Line : +110
Game Notes : MATCH WAGERING - A full set must be completed for money line wagers to have action. The spread and total are based on sets and the full match must be completed for action. On first set betting, 1st set must be completed for money line wagers to be valid.

Im on this too. Line seems wierd to me still. Altho verdasco started @ +130 vs janowicz and ended -125. I watched fognini he owned Hass. Hass can beat almagro.

[MagicDiceFlow]

Im on this too. Line seems wierd to me still. Altho verdasco started @ +130 vs janowicz and ended -125. I watched fognini he owned Hass. Hass can beat almagro.

Line has started to move in most places within the last hr. Almagro was a -130 and I'm seeing Fognini favored now at some places -110 which is a positive sign.

[alcoholiday]

I'm goin big on that play as well, Almagro looked shaky against Monaco yesterday

[frugalgambler]

Im on this too. Line seems wierd to me still. Altho verdasco started @ +130 vs janowicz and ended -125. I watched fognini he owned Hass. Hass can beat almagro.

It does not work that way. Clearly Fognini presents a matchup problem to Haas. Almagro is a completely different matchup for Fognini.

[kenz]

Thanks for your write-up.

For me I watched the two games yesterday. Saw how Fognini swept every opponent for the last two weeks.

Easy bets for me.

Fognini +1.5 sets @1.44
Fognini ML @2.15

[kenz]

Almagro vs Haas always a close game.

What I see is single handed BH players have some weaknesses in long rallies.

Fognini is fit, athletic, short and compact and very grounded on this surface.

Yesterday Monaco had 0 winners, still he was close to win by Almagro's mistakes.

Fognini at the moment is very hot.

I think he wins but the bigger stake will be on set handciap smaller on ML

[kenz]

Fognini can beat Federer here too, another single handed BH who is not in his glory days

[kenz]

Single handed BH players Gasquet, Kohlscreiber, Haas back to back on two weeks...

I wont be surprised if he beats Almagro and Federer too, 2 another single handed BH players

Fognini beat Almagro on clay in their last H2H in 2009

[MagicDiceFlow]

Almagro vs Haas always a close game.

What I see is single handed BH players have some weaknesses in long rallies.

Fognini is fit, athletic, short and compact and very grounded on this surface.

Yesterday Monaco had 0 winners, still he was close to win by Almagro's mistakes.

Fognini at the moment is very hot.

I think he wins but the bigger stake will be on set handciap smaller on ML

I also put $300 on the Fognini +2 games. I think he has a better chance of trumping Almagro on one of these sets than vice versa. I'll have over a dime total on Fog so it will be a large bet for me. I'm confident.....I just cant see Almagro winning with that error prone backhand. Not the way Fabio has been hitting the ball.

Best of Luck

[Demonata]

So many people on Fognini. Don't see why so many people doubting Almagro on Clay. Haas looked so bad and disinterested to me.

[frugalgambler]

Single handed BH players Gasquet, Kohlscreiber, Haas back to back on two weeks...

I wont be surprised if he beats Almagro and Federer too, 2 another single handed BH players

Fognini beat Almagro on clay in their last H2H in 2009

LOL> Will you also bring up their junior circuit matches ? AFAIK, Almagro has a positive h2h vs Fognini. Anyway, I am on Fognini too but I do not religiously believe that he will necessarily win tomorrow. But, go Foginini !

[kenz]

LOL> Will you also bring up their junior circuit matches ? AFAIK, Almagro has a positive h2h vs Fognini. Anyway, I am on Fognini too but I do not religiously believe that he will necessarily win tomorrow. But, go Foginini !

What I say is it is 3-1 ALmagro one on hard, neglect it so 2-1 Almagro on clay with the last win for Fognini

Now Fognini is in a lot better shape. No matter what the H2H is, looking at their games for the last 2 weeks what I see is Fognini beat Almagro here and then take a set and may be beat Federer in the final

[MagicDiceFlow]

Also another thing I want to mention is that Almagro has become very impatient on clay lately. He's trying to pound the shit outta the ball on every shot , even the ones where he's clearly out of position causing at least 15 errors yesterday for no reason. He's not developing his points smartly which is a must on clay. He's playing a hardcourt style on a clay surface.

[kenz]

Agreed

Almagro is very impatient on all courts and tournaments lately

He gets bored from long rallies and matches.

He had a tough time against Monacoı beacuse of this and he lost to Robredo on RG when Robredo was @30 on live bet because of long rallies which ended with Almagro's mistakes. He also lost to Verdasco at Bastad because the game was so long. He got bored against Melzer in Monte Carlo too.

He is a very mental guy. I am sure Fognini can see this better than us.

It is so easy to touch Almagro's nerves

[MagicDiceFlow]

Also fellas, don't put too much weight on head to head matchups, especially the ones that are over 2 years old. So much has developed in Fognini's game that he's not even the same player from back in 2009 when they last met.

Don't get caught up too much in H2H when you're capping matches. The best thing to do is watch replays of recent matches and see if you can catch a weakness or two that can help your bet.

[kenz]

Agreed again. Just added to spice things up. Latest forms on clay and matching up their styles, I see Fognini as the slight favourite not Almagro

[frugalgambler]

Agreed

Almagro is very impatient on all courts and tournaments lately

He gets bored from long rallies and matches.

He had a tough time against Monacoı beacuse of this and he lost to Robredo on RG when Robredo was @30 on live bet because of long rallies which ended with Almagro's mistakes. He also lost to Verdasco at Bastad because the game was so long. He got bored against Melzer in Monte Carlo too.

He is a very mental guy. I am sure Fognini can see this better than us.

It is so easy to touch Almagro's nerves

Dude, Fognini is not known for his mental toughness, he can be a mental Mary too. What I see is a few folks in these threads who are trying to convince themselves that this is a sure thing, while I am saying that this is not a sure thing by any thread of imagination. Almagro might very well decide, "hey I can win this tourney" and plays a good clay-court tennis which is well within his capabilities. In that case he is a favorite.

[frugalgambler]

Also fellas, don't put too much weight on head to head matchups, especially the ones that are over 2 years old. So much has developed in Fognini's game that he's not even the same player from back in 2009 when they last met.

Don't get caught up too much in H2H when you're capping matches. The best thing to do is watch replays of recent matches and see if you can catch a weakness or two that can help your bet.

I was not the one who brought up the h2h record with the most recent match played 4 years ago. h2h is a useful tool, but should not be the deciding factor. Unless it is something ridiculous like Youzny vs Federer.

[kenz]

I was not the one who brought up the h2h record with the most recent match played 4 years ago. h2h is a useful tool, but should not be the deciding factor. Unless it is something ridiculous like Youzny vs Federer.

Youzhny vs Federer H2H is also not the best tool as there is "due" factor.

Youzhny will or may win one day he is not gonna lose 15 or 16 matches. And he was very solid against Federer Halle this year. He might win it.

I just added it to spice up my post

And two handed BH players > one handed BH players

Tennis has many factors involved in it like mental factors and being "on". What I say is if both are close to what they play recently Fognini is my favourite. Main bet is Fog to win a set @1.44 , second pick is Fog ML @2.15. I may take over 22.5 games too.

Good luck!

[kaliboyz]

Sup MDF, i'm going to tail you this time!! good luck bud!

Wager Status:	Pending
Risk / To Win Amount:	75.30 / 82.83 (USD) Accepted 07/20/2013 03:11 - EST
Sport :	Mens Tennis Tennis
Period :	Game (Nicolas Almagro : 0 - Fabio Fognini : 0)
Line:	Fabio Fognini 07/20/2013 06:00:01- (EST)
:	+110
* Event Notes:	ATP - Bet at Home Open (Semis) @ Hamburgh, Germany.

[frugalgambler]

Youzhny vs Federer H2H is also not the best tool as there is "due" factor.

Youzhny will or may win one day he is not gonna lose 15 or 16 matches. And he was very solid against Federer Halle this year. He might win it.

Good luck!

Federer - Youzhny 16-0. By now, Youzhny should be pissing his pants every time he sees a picture of Roger. And there is no such thing as "due" factor.

[MagicDiceFlow]

Fyi for US viewers, just found out they are going to stream both matches on ESPN3 today. Sweet , we get to watch these in hd.

[Demonata]

Fyi for US viewers, just found out they are going to stream both matches on ESPN3 today. Sweet , we get to watch these in hd.

Will it be on tv as well? Like espn or espn 2?

[theballsflop]

I like Foggy. And I like Delbs +1.5 as well.

[MagicDiceFlow]

Will it be on tv as well? Like espn or espn 2?

I dont know if they're showing it on tv. I like watching the matches on my Imac better. I can multitask. Match about to start.

[MasterBet]

"anyone who saw the game yesterday could see that Tommy was tired, distracted, and he was just trying to finish points quickly.
However, Almagro could easily throw away the second set and lose the game, but unlike is poor mentality Almagro came back with a sweep set in the 2nd, in the decisive set Monaco did not give up on anything and broke and held to lead 3-1 but Almagro is not pressed, held and broke back. game after this,he way back from 40 love down , to hold and break right after that.and its look like in long ralies Almagro have more chance with his one BH than other one BH players(Tommy,Koli)."

In addition to what I said, Fognini has a lazy personality, he is more handsome gentleman than dirt warrior, from time to time looked like he getting high at some point and has this lovely smile.
On the other hand, Almagro is fat and ugly midget, when necessary, he knows to shout to increase the momentum, he also knows how to break the tennis racket when he was going crazy, and in short it looks like the exact opposite of Fognini.What I want to say here is that if we are going to to battle of momentums, Almagro better.

[MagicDiceFlow]

Nothing like a break to start off the match. Almagro had to work hard as hell on that opening service game.....like 4 deuces.

[face]

fognini such smooth backhand slices
playing smart, conserving energy

[DoggyStyle]

Lets go Fognini! Let's get this MagicDice

[MagicDiceFlow]

fognini such smooth backhand slices
playing smart, conserving energy

Smooth groundstrokes too and deceptive. With a flick of the wrist, he turns some of those shots into cannonballs.

[theballsflop]

I know its a bit premature, but what a matchup it'll be to see Fognini vs Delbonis. Both playing phenomenal tennis atm, assuming it does happens, anyone wanna offer their handicaps on this matchup?

[face]

assuming it does happens

fed playing great lately, and is a huge favorite