[baconbets]

nadal under 19.5 games -140
under 32.5 games -115

these seem like steals considering that nadal is rounding into form and wawrinka, despite his recent successes, doesnt have a good record against nadal and was just pushed in a long match. the above lines cover a good variety of 3-0 nadal wins, whereas his 3-0 set prop is -200.

[Hardcoar]

Stan could easily take a set, and turn a couple more late.

[CaptainOmar111]

nadal under 19.5 games -140
under 32.5 games -115

these seem like steals considering that nadal is rounding into form and wawrinka, despite his recent successes, doesnt have a good record against nadal and was just pushed in a long match. the above lines cover a good variety of 3-0 nadal wins, whereas his 3-0 set prop is -200.

I like the under 19,5 games

I took Nadal under 22,5 games when he was 1-1 sets X Klizan @ -250 and won it

Wawa may lose 3-0 but nadal under 19.5 games -140 better

[matt1216]

Wawa can take a set. Nadal has faced a bunch of PHIDs so far. Nishikori had no serve to hurt nadal. Wawrinka can.

[EaglesPhan36]

Really depends on what if anything Wawrinka has left after the Gasquet match. Guy spent a lot of physical and emotional energy. He was playing maybe better tennis in Madrid and Nadal ate him up in straights in that Final. This result could easily go the way of the Ferrer-Robredo match today. My personal opinion is it's more likely to be straight forward like that than to see Wawrinka putting up a fight and winning a set.

Personal opinion also would be to bet one or the other as referenced in the OP. Seems smarter to just take the Under 32.5 if you like either bet and pay the reduced price although I see it is now down to 32 at places.

[Hardcoar]

Wawa can take a set. Nadal has faced a bunch of PHIDs so far. Nishikori had no serve to hurt nadal. Wawrinka can.

Japmaster's serve had nothing to do with his inability to hurt Nadal. It had plenty to do with Nadal's ability to hurt him though.

What Nish-Nish lacks to hurt Nadal is power hitting. He's a technical guy with potential for excellent shotmaking but little power. His shots constantly come up short and fail to bother brick walls such as Nadal. He would still be able to take it even to Nadal if his skill is on though. I guess anyone can beat everyone if he's playing well enough, huh?

Also, aspiring to be the next Monfils doesn't exactly help your cause when said cause is to beat Nadal at RG...

[baconbets]

under 19.5 down to -165 now, people must be hitting that line. still 32.5 -115 on my book, good opportunity there.

[matt1216]

Japmaster's serve had nothing to do with his inability to hurt Nadal. It had plenty to do with Nadal's ability to hurt him though.

What Nish-Nish lacks to hurt Nadal is power hitting. He's a technical guy with potential for excellent shotmaking but little power. His shots constantly come up short and fail to bother brick walls such as Nadal. He would still be able to take it even to Nadal if his skill is on though. I guess anyone can beat everyone if he's playing well enough, huh?

Also, aspiring to be the next Monfils doesn't exactly help your cause when said cause is to beat Nadal at RG...

Fair enough. I heard Wawa was somewhat injured in this tourney. I may just play the under here

[alta]

Head to Head
Nadal 9-0
Nadal 19 sets Stan 0 sets
1 best of 5 match at 2007 Australian 6-2, 6-2, 6-2

[Sharp Snake]

I think I may be the only person on the planet who thinks that Stan puts up a fight here. I could see something like 7-6, 4-6, 6-3, 6-1 or something similar (in favor of Nadal). Stan puts up a fight early on, then sort of fades away. My book is still showing 32.5, which is good "value" I suppose but I just cant pull the trigger. Gonna stick with my gut and lay off.

[Hardcoar]

Fair enough. I heard Wawa was somewhat injured in this tourney. I may just play the under here

He is, but it's impossible to tell how that's going to work out.

[baconbets]

i caught a clip on espn. brad gilbert credited wawrinka's one handed backhand as being part of the source of his vulnerability to nadal. ive seen him play recently and he doesnt seem to have the same issues that federer has on that side, but its an interesting point.

[MiddleMan]

Rafael Nadal -7.5 & Under 32.5 games @ $3.65
Stanislas Wawrinka +7.5 & Over 32.5 games @ $3.40

[samus82]

I think I may be the only person on the planet who thinks that Stan puts up a fight here. I could see something like 7-6, 4-6, 6-3, 6-1 or something similar (in favor of Nadal). Stan puts up a fight early on, then sort of fades away. My book is still showing 32.5, which is good "value" I suppose but I just cant pull the trigger. Gonna stick with my gut and lay off.

I agree fully with this, my play would have to be the over as I think its good value despite the h2h, but just can't pull the trigger. Best to steer well clear of this.