[Goat Milk]

Sure Fed played a 3 setter today and Murray has the rest but come on. Federer owns this tournament and I don't see any reason why he should be a dog here. This match is better than a coin flip odds for Fed on this surface so + money with the greatest player in the world imo is definitely worth it even if Murray has the crowd behind him. Will wait til tomorrow to make a play.

[DR225]

Fed barely held on to beat Ferrer (bp after bp and against a guy he ordinarily owns) and couldn't win against Delpo, I don't see how he beats Murray. I would still favor Fed with quick conditions but this "hard court" plays really slow...I'm considering going pretty big on Murray. I'm far from a tennis expert though, the only thing holding me back is how easy this seems.

[Goat Milk]

Federer owns this surface. It's a slow indoor hard. On the quick courts, Murray has an advantage at this stage in their careers. I don't usually care about who's been hot or cold because every day you step onto the new court it's different. The reason why I like Fed here is because of his dedication of coming to the net. On this slow surface, you're not going to get much top spin. Fed hits the ball flatter than Murray and its important to play net on this surface.

Fed hasn't looked like himself but come on, I think he was just kind of cruising through the round robin. Now that the semi's are here, you can bet he's gonna bring his A game. It's gonna be a good match but I give Federer all the checkmarks on this surface.

[DR225]

I thought Fed no longer had the return game of a joker/murray which is why quicker courts with shorter rallies would benefit him. The above likely highlights my tennis ignorance but I simply don't think Fed can hang with joker or murray anymore. I'll say that Fed has more of a chance here than he would in a best of five slam situation.

btw thanks for the reply, it was very informative.

[GoBlue77]

murray is the play

[Sam_Hawkins]

did u see the game yesterday? Fed's beckhand was really bad, he did A LOT of u/e and delpo basically owned him, apart from second set, where fed took an early break and somehow managed to hold his serve for the rest of it...

[makman]

Fed barely held on to beat Ferrer (bp after bp and against a guy he ordinarily owns) and couldn't win against Delpo, I don't see how he beats Murray. I would still favor Fed with quick conditions but this "hard court" plays really slow...I'm considering going pretty big on Murray. I'm far from a tennis expert though, the only thing holding me back is how easy this seems.

I am also backing Murray on this meeting, but i have to mention that i completely disagree with your views on Fed's play against Ferrer and DelPo. Either you had not watched these carefully, either you are in a delusion biased on the score of the games (total points,total games, total sets, how many love games, etc..)
If you watch carefully, you d see that in Round Robin Stage Federer took all what he wanted with the minimal effort he can spend.
He is one of the best player of all times, and currently old, close to end of his peak career, but certainly the most clever and experienced in this tournament. He knows this game better than all his opponents here, and he is aware of his capabilities pretty good.
Look how he was in this tournament:
1. He withdrawed from Paris, took his time and rested
2. In the first game not-in-form-Tipsy was no threat, he made it fast with 2-0
3. Second game against the running-never getting tired Ferrer, could be difficult but Fedex very cleverly finished it 2-0, without much sweating, some effort in the first set, taking the second set to tie-break, and again some effort to finish in tie-break was not so difficult for a player like Federer who has lots of offensive weapons
4. Third match was against Delpo, taking one set would give him the first place in group (he wants strongly to avoid himself meeting Djokovic in the semis). Why would he sweat for more before the semis??? Besides it had been decided Delpo second, by losing 2-1, without waiting for Ferrer-Tipsy game. And who could be the best opponent to make Djoker tired in the semis??? Ferrer or Delpo ???

I think Federer played this round-robin very cleverly like a chess player. And i am pretty surprised how you dont notice it and comment here about his loss to Delpo and Ferrer.
Federer is model tennis player. It is pleasure for me to watch his play both on the court and in his mind...

Afterall, i think Murray is the fave here, but not a game to go big against Federer.


(PS: IMHO Tennis is not to go big for anyone)

[Goat Milk]

I am also backing Murray on this meeting, but i have to mention that i completely disagree with your views on Fed's play against Ferrer and DelPo. Either you had not watched these carefully, either you are in a delusion biased on the score of the games (total points,total games, total sets, how many love games, etc..)
If you watch carefully, you d see that in Round Robin Stage Federer took all what he wanted with the minimal effort he can spend.
He is one of the best player of all times, and currently old, close to end of his peak career, but certainly the most clever and experienced in this tournament. He knows this game better than all his opponents here, and he is aware of his capabilities pretty good.
Look how he was in this tournament:
1. He withdrawed from Paris, took his time and rested
2. In the first game not-in-form-Tipsy was no threat, he made it fast with 2-0
3. Second game against the running-never getting tired Ferrer, could be difficult but Fedex very cleverly finished it 2-0, without much sweating, some effort in the first set, taking the second set to tie-break, and again some effort to finish in tie-break was not so difficult for a player like Federer who has lots of offensive weapons
4. Third match was against Delpo, taking one set would give him the first place in group (he wants strongly to avoid himself meeting Djokovic in the semis). Why would he sweat for more before the semis??? Besides it had been decided Delpo second, by losing 2-1, without waiting for Ferrer-Tipsy game. And who could be the best opponent to make Djoker tired in the semis??? Ferrer or Delpo ???

I think Federer played this round-robin very cleverly like a chess player. And i am pretty surprised how you dont notice it and comment here about his loss to Delpo and Ferrer.
Federer is model tennis player. It is pleasure for me to watch his play both on the court and in his mind...

Afterall, i think Murray is the fave here, but not a game to go big against Federer.


(PS: IMHO Tennis is not to go big for anyone)

one of the best posts i've ever read in the tennis forum.

[sando]

Odds are wrong, I have Federer somewhere from -110
to evens and think therefor the value lies with fed. Excellent analysis on this thread boys.

[freshguy222]

well, so federer 'wanted' to lose in his hometown to delpotro as well? believe me, he wanted to win his third match as well, it is worth quite a lot of points, federer is over his prime and murrays return game will kill federers serve, everyone who saw their last match could see that IF federers serve is only a little bit off, he will get killed. his return does not put enough balls into play for him to challenge the server constantly.

[MoYaL]

Because murray destroyed Fed in the last 2 meetings.

[MagicDiceFlow]

Age matters a lot in this game and you have to be not in good shape but premier shape to beat any of the big fours. The one aspect of Fed's game that has dipped considerably is his backhand. He once possessed one of the best backhands in the game but over the last year, its been average to below average at times. To beat an in form Murray, Fed will need to be at the peak in all aspects of his game , including the suffering backhand.

Now that he's gained mental superiority over Fed, I would rank Murray as the second best player on the tour behind Djoker. You can see Murray's confidence and swagger whenever takes the court against Fed nowdays.

Oddsmakers are super sharp on this line....Murray all the way.

[Demonata]

Really don't see Murray losing at all. HE is in better form lately and handles Fed pretty well as of late.

[Dmoneytx]

I am also backing Murray on this meeting, but i have to mention that i completely disagree with your views on Fed's play against Ferrer and DelPo. Either you had not watched these carefully, either you are in a delusion biased on the score of the games (total points,total games, total sets, how many love games, etc..)
If you watch carefully, you d see that in Round Robin Stage Federer took all what he wanted with the minimal effort he can spend.
He is one of the best player of all times, and currently old, close to end of his peak career, but certainly the most clever and experienced in this tournament. He knows this game better than all his opponents here, and he is aware of his capabilities pretty good.
Look how he was in this tournament:
1. He withdrawed from Paris, took his time and rested
2. In the first game not-in-form-Tipsy was no threat, he made it fast with 2-0
3. Second game against the running-never getting tired Ferrer, could be difficult but Fedex very cleverly finished it 2-0, without much sweating, some effort in the first set, taking the second set to tie-break, and again some effort to finish in tie-break was not so difficult for a player like Federer who has lots of offensive weapons
4. Third match was against Delpo, taking one set would give him the first place in group (he wants strongly to avoid himself meeting Djokovic in the semis). Why would he sweat for more before the semis??? Besides it had been decided Delpo second, by losing 2-1, without waiting for Ferrer-Tipsy game. And who could be the best opponent to make Djoker tired in the semis??? Ferrer or Delpo ???

I think Federer played this round-robin very cleverly like a chess player. And i am pretty surprised how you dont notice it and comment here about his loss to Delpo and Ferrer.
Federer is model tennis player. It is pleasure for me to watch his play both on the court and in his mind...

Afterall, i think Murray is the fave here, but not a game to go big against Federer.


(PS: IMHO Tennis is not to go big for anyone)

Well, slap me if I read this wrong. Good post, but it contradicts WHO you would take in this match today. I can't see either player with a clear edge, so I usually stay away from total coin flips.
You start out the post by saying you are "backing Murray today". But then you end the post with "Murray does not have a big game to play Federer". Ummmmmm......to me, that is confusing. You like Murray, but he doesn't have a game to go big against Fed??????

Then someone said this was the "best" post they have ever read in the tennis section?????? HUH? I can't even figure out who this guy was favoring today........

I am assuming you have not read one of EP's write ups or Magic Dice's write ups. Clear, detailed and easy to understand. Maybe it was just me, but I couldn't even figure this write up on who he was taking today. Started with Murray and then raves about how much a genius Fed is and how he played the round robin stage. So???????

[shari91]

Well, slap me if I read this wrong. Good post, but it contradicts WHO you would take in this match today. I can't see either player with a clear edge, so I usually stay away from total coin flips.
You start out the post by saying you are "backing Murray today". But then you end the post with "Murray does not have a big game to play Federer". Ummmmmm......to me, that is confusing. You like Murray, but he doesn't have a game to go big against Fed??????

Then someone said this was the "best" post they have ever read in the tennis section?????? HUH? I can't even figure out who this guy was favoring today........

I am assuming you have not read one of EP's write ups or Magic Dice's write ups. Clear, detailed and easy to understand. Maybe it was just me, but I couldn't even figure this write up on who he was taking today. Started with Murray and then raves about how much a genius Fed is and how he played the round robin stage. So???????

Any write up is a good one. makman picks and chooses his spots carefully.

I for one appreciate anyone who posts a write up with their pick.

GL to you all xo

[sando]

Age matters a lot in this game and you have to be not in good shape but premier shape to beat any of the big fours. The one aspect of Fed's game that has dipped considerably is his backhand. He once possessed one of the best backhands in the game but over the last year, its been average to below average at times. To beat an in form Murray, Fed will need to be at the peak in all aspects of his game , including the suffering backhand.

Now that he's gained mental superiority over Fed, I would rank Murray as the second best player on the tour behind Djoker. You can see Murray's confidence and swagger whenever takes the court against Fed nowdays.

Oddsmakers are super sharp on this line....Murray all the way.

No they were way off, Fed should have started -110 fav or evens at the absolute worst. Easy Fed win.

[makman]

Well, slap me if I read this wrong. Good post, but it contradicts WHO you would take in this match today. I can't see either player with a clear edge, so I usually stay away from total coin flips.
You start out the post by saying you are "backing Murray today". But then you end the post with "Murray does not have a big game to play Federer". Ummmmmm......to me, that is confusing. You like Murray, but he doesn't have a game to go big against Fed??????

Then someone said this was the "best" post they have ever read in the tennis section?????? HUH? I can't even figure out who this guy was favoring today........

I am assuming you have not read one of EP's write ups or Magic Dice's write ups. Clear, detailed and easy to understand. Maybe it was just me, but I couldn't even figure this write up on who he was taking today. Started with Murray and then raves about how much a genius Fed is and how he played the round robin stage. So???????

Well dmoney what s so confusing?
The guy made some incorrect comments of the Federer's play in earlier games and told he was going big on Murray as if it was a piece of cake. I wanted to show him the things which he had not noticed watching earlier games of Federer, and this will be not so easy for Murray. Far from going big on Murray.
Anyone who read my post would see, i had no pick in this game.

And no i had not read "clear" write ups of MDF and EP. Maybe i had read some of them. not all...whatever.

I am not selling any picks here. I didnt even write a word of why i am backing whom.

I had wrote down the things which i think many didnt noticed. Thats all.

For the Murray backers, best advice was not to go big.

If some had read my post and abandoned themselves from going big I am happy.

I think Murray should have read my post as well, so he wouldnt play like a clown in a charity match... underestimating Federer (he will remember those dropshots for a long time).

Murray played like a shitt, and he paid his price.

[Hangoverblack]

We that read appreciate everyone's opinions. Some people have exceptional value as fades. (I am one of these who should be faded). Goat has been nailing winners. Sando has been nailing winners. Others are on equally impressive losing streaks. All we ask is to stay consistent! There is great value in a forum contributor who is nearly always wrong.

[face]

nice write up and call goat

[Goat Milk]

thx face. Federer broke his spirit in that first set tiebreaker. When he smells blood it's over